The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Paying up a PG today comes down to a decision between Russell Westbrook and Trae Young. Both players have been excellent recently, with Young averaging 1.50 DraftKings points per minute and Westbrook averaging 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Both players have also commanded large workloads recently, and each player is currently projected for at least 37.2 minutes in our NBA Models.
So who has the edge today? I lean towards Young, who has the significantly better matchup vs. the Blazers. They’ve been abysmal vs. opposing PGs this season, giving Young an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.24 on DraftKings. The Hawks’ implied team total of 120.25 is also the top mark on the slate.
Value
Kendrick Nunn stands out as a value on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Nunn has been productive when given a chance to play this season, averaging 0.92 FanDuel points per minute, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current price tag. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Malcolm Brogdon is another potential source of value today. He’s seen a price decrease of -$900 over the past month on FanDuel, despite the fact that he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over that time frame. He owns a Bargain Rating of 98% for today’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank dead-last in defensive efficiency.
Ja Morant has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on DraftKings. That said, he is coming off 41.25 DraftKings points in his last game, so perhaps he’s broken out of his little mini-slump. His price has decreased by -$700 over the past month on DraftKings and -$1,700 on FanDuel, so he’s an interesting buy-low target.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the priciest option at SG on today’s slate, and he’s always always a strong option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and the only exception was a game where he was limited to just 28 minutes in a blowout.
That said, C.J. McCollum looks like a better option from a pure points-per-dollar perspective. Damian Lillard has been ruled out once again, and McCollum has been a fantasy monster in games without Lillard this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.3% in those contests, resulting in an average of 52.54 DraftKings points per game.
He’s a tough fade today vs. the Hawks. It’s an elite matchup — the Hawks rank fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency — giving McCollum an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.13 on DraftKings. McCollum is also projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Kevin Huerter stands out at just $4,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he’s currently projected for a healthy amount of minutes. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.85 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Devin Booker could fly a bit under-the-radar given the presence of Harden and McCollum, which makes him an elite pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on FanDuel. He’s underpriced at just $7,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. His ceiling projection is comparable to McCollum’s, but he’ll cost you significantly less in terms of salary cap.
Kemba Walker will miss another contest for the Celtics, which makes Jaylen Brown an appealing option. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +2.5% in games without Walker this season, and he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Rockets. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, giving the Celtics the largest pace differential on the slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Sticking with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum has been absolutely balling recently. He’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in each of his past four games, He’s been scoring ball at an elite rate, increasing his fantasy output to 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He benefits from the same elite matchup as Brown, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.26 on DraftKings. He has seen a large price increase across the industry, but he still provides some value at his current salary. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings.
Value
Cam Reddish is another player who has been playing well recently. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 31.2 minutes in four of his past five games. He’s a cheap way to get exposure to what should be the best game of the day from a fantasy perspective. The total on this game is the top mark on the slate by a pretty significant margin, and the spread is listed at just two points.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza is another player who fits that description. He’s slightly more expensive than Reddish on DraftKings, but he costs exactly the same on FanDuel. That gives him a superior Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he’s also projected for a slightly larger workload.
The Nets could be an interesting team to target today. They’re already without Kyrie Irving, and Caris LeVert has been listed as questionable. If LeVert is unable to suit up, that would leave the Nets without two of their highest usage players.
Taurean Prince could be looking at an increased workload in that situation, and he’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s an elite value target on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Power Forward
Stud
The biggest injury news of the day surrounds the Lakers. LeBron James missed the Lakers’ last contest, and he’s currently questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Grizzlies. The Lakers ultimately didn’t need James in their last game — they still won by 30 points — but his absence would increase the value for the rest of the roster if today’s game is more competitive.
Anthony Davis would obviously see one of the biggest boosts. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.9% with James off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.56 DraftKings points per minute. The Grizzlies are also a solid matchup, ranking seventh in pace and 18th in defensive efficiency. They will also be thinner than usual in the frontcourt given the injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke.
Make sure to stay up to date on LeBron’s status using the new Labs Insider tool.
Value
Bruno Fernando has seen a spike in playing time recently, logging at least 20.4 minutes in back-to-back games. While that obviously isn’t a ton of minutes, Fernando is capable of making the most out of them. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his salary is pretty minimal across the industry. He’s another way to get some cheap exposure to the game between the Hawks and Blazers.
Fast Break
Dario Saric is another potential value option to consider on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He hasn’t been as effective as Fernando on a per-minute basis, but he is projected for significantly more minutes at 29.5. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30.
Sticking with the Suns, Deandre Ayton now has dual PF/C eligibility on DraftKings, which makes it a lot easier to fit him into your lineups. Instead of only being able to play him in two out of eight spots, now you can fit him in four.
That’s undoubtedly a good thing for fantasy owners. Ayton has been extremely productive on a per-minute basis all season, and he’s also carried a massive workload recently. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.51 on DraftKings, and his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Center
Stud
Paying up at center for Ayton is definitely reasonable, and he’s clearly the top option on FanDuel where you can’t roster him at PF. That said, if you to pair Ayton with another top center on DraftKings, that’s definitely a viable option.
Bam Adebayo is someone that stands out. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and he’s in an awesome spot vs. the Nets. They’ve given up big games in bunches to opposing centers, giving Adebayo an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.40.
Value
It’s hard to argue against P.J. Tucker at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He doesn’t offer much of a ceiling given his average of 0.59 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but very few players provide a comparable workload and salary. He’s currently projected for 34.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.61.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.73 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That includes scoring at least 33.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He’s underpriced at $5,300 on DraftKings, and his matchup vs. the Cavaliers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23.
On the other side of that matchup, Andre Drummond could be worth a look on FanDuel. He’s been a major disappointment since arriving in Cleveland, which has caused his salary to drop to just $7,300. He could see a few additional minutes today with Tristan Thompson out of the lineup, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate.
Photo credit: Sean M. Haffey-Getty Images
Pictured: Blazers SG C.J. McCollum (3)
