Tuesday features a three-game slate on the NBA playoff scene, with things starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Dončić has had a bit of a disappointing season by his standards, but he has the potential to turn things around during the postseason. He put together a huge performance in his last matchup against the Clippers, finishing with 71.5 DraftKings points thanks to a triple double. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75 percent. He’s one of the strongest options to pay up for across the industry.
Value
There aren’t a ton of strong value options at point guard, but Rajon Rondo could be an exception. He saw more playing time than both Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverley in Game 1 against the Mavericks, and he responded with 27.0 DraftKings points. Rondo has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of doing a lot of damage if he sees more than 20 minutes.
He’s worth some consideration on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88 percent.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker was a major disappointment in Game 1 against the Nets, finishing with just 16.2 FanDuel points. That said, there are still reasons to be optimistic with Walker moving forward. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.5% with Jaylen Brown off the court this season, and his usage rate of 33.1% in Game 1 was the top mark on the team. He suffered from a combination of subpar shooting and reduced minutes, but he should return to his usual workload. He’s an excellent buy-low option.
Chris Paul had an injury scare in Game 1 against the Lakers, but he is not listed on the injury report for Game 2. That means he should be a full go as the Suns try to take a 2-0 series lead against the Lakers. Paul struggled in Game 1, but he’s increased his production to 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s tied with Dončić for the most Pro Trends at the position, so he’s another quality bounce-back target.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George remains fairly priced across the industry, and he’s coming off a solid performance in his first game of the postseason. He didn’t shoot the ball particularly well — he was 8 for 18 from the field and 2 for 8 from 3-point range — so he has the potential for a bit of improvement. The Clippers need to win to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole before the series heads to Dallas, so expect to see their A game.
Value
Marcus Smart stands out as an elite value option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%, and his nine Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. His per-minute production is a bit down over the past month, but he’s coming off more than 39.6 minutes in Game 1 against the Nets. He’s still averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute on the year, so he should be able to pay off his current salary pretty easily.
Fast Break
The Nets are an interesting team on the slate. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 118.0 points, but their stars are still a bit overpriced. If you do want to target their studs, you’re better off doing it on DraftKings. James Harden owns a Bargain Rating of 92% on DraftKings, and he racked up 53.75 DraftKings points in Game 1.
Devin Booker is getting his first taste of playoff action this season, but he didn’t seem fazed in Game 1 against the Lakers. He finished with 55.25 DraftKings points and stuffed the stat sheet with 34 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists. He’s currently projected for 41.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward is absolutely loaded. LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard are all in action, and Luka has dual PG/SF eligibility on DraftKings. Those are four of the best fantasy producers in the league all in action on a three-game slate.
That said, Leonard seems like the clear top choice at the moment. He’s the cheapest option of the quartet, but he doesn’t lack for upside. He racked up 56.0 DraftKings points in his last game despite shooting just 9 for 22 from the field. His $8,300 salary on DraftKings is downright larceny, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
Nicolas Batum was left for dead heading into this season, but he’s become an important part of the Clippers’ rotation. He played 31.7 minutes in their first postseason game, and he’s currently projected for 30.0 minutes at just $3,800 on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.68 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
If I am paying up for a member of the Nets, it’s going to be Durant. He is the clear alpha of their stud trio, and he led the team with a 38.7% usage rate in their first contest. He also led the team in minutes, and he racked up 52.5 DraftKings points despite a subpar shooting performance. Like Leonard, he also owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, so I like the idea of pairing those two players together for cash games.
If you want some cheaper exposure to the Nets, consider Joe Harris on FanDuel. His $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he played more than 37.3 minutes in their first playoff contest. He should get plenty of wide-open looks playing next to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving, and Harris is one of the best in the business at knocking them down.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward is another position that is jam-packed with talent for such a small slate. Anthony Davis and Jayson Tatum are the two highest-priced options on FanDuel, but Kristaps Porzingis stands out as the best value. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,900 over his past 10 games, and his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. Porzingis has not been particularly impressive recently, but he’s still averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute this season. That gives him the potential to destroy this reduced price tag.
Value
Remember when the Celtics had a million assets and it seemed like they were destined to return to greatness? My how the mighty have fallen. They’ve had some bad luck, but I don’t think Danny Ainge ever envisioned Jabari Parker being a key contributor for his team in 2021. Parker is coming off 21.5 minutes in Game 1 against the Nets, and he’s expected to see a similar workload. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s an interesting punt play at the absolute minimum.
Fast Break
Marcus Morris is the preferred value target on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%, and he’s projected for 32.2 minutes in our NBA Models. Morris has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.15 with a comparable salary and minute projection, including a mark of +6.39 as a member of the Clippers.
Tatum may not be as good of a value as Porzingis, but he’s still definitely worth some consideration. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he also leads the position in terms of projected minutes. He’s averaged 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and a big game from Tatum remains the Celtics’ best chance of pulling off an upset.
Center
Stud
Deandre Ayton had his way with the Lakers in Game 1. He finished with 21 points on a nearly perfect 10 for 11 shooting from the field, and he also added 16 rebounds. He will likely see some shooting regression on the slate, but he’s simply too cheap at $6,100 on DraftKings. His salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he fails to pay off that price tag.
Value
Robert Williams was a question mark for the Celtics heading into Game 1. He was limited to just 14.2 minutes in the play-in game vs. the Wizards due to turf toe, but he was able to fight through the pain vs. the Nets. He finished with 43.75 DraftKings points over 22.7 minutes, yet his price tag has actually decreased to $4,600 for Game 2. Williams has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s going to return value if he stays on the court.
Locking in Williams and Ayton together on DraftKings should be a popular strategy, but it has a ton of merit.
Fast Break
Williams and Ayton should command the vast majority of ownership at the center position, but Tristan Thompson could be worth a flyer on FanDuel. He’s the best pure value at the position given his Bargain Rating of 80%, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus vs. the Nets in Game 1. The Nets have struggled against opposing centers this season, so there should be enough fantasy production available for Williams and Thompson.
