The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been a phenomenal source of fantasy value recently, and he’s coming off one of the best fantasy performances we’ve seen all season. He racked up 35 points, 21 rebounds, and 14 assists, resulting in 94.5 DraftKings points.
That game came with Bradley Beal out of the lineup, and it’s possible that Beal will not suit up again on Tuesday. He’s currently dealing with a right hip contusion after taking a hard fall during Saturday’s contest, and he’s currently listed as questionable vs. the Hornets.
Westbrook has unsurprisingly been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Beal off the court this season, increasing his usage rate by +7.5% and averaging 1.53 DKFP per minute.
Value
Michael Carter-Williams stands out as a nice value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%, and he’s served as one of Orlando’s primary scorers following the trade deadline. He didn’t play well in his past game – he shot 0-6 from the field – but he’s posted a usage rate of at least 27.7% in each of his past two contests.
Fast Break
The top implied team total on today’s slate belongs to the Hornets. They’re not a team you think of as an offensive juggernaut, but they benefit from one of the best possible matchups vs. the Wizards. They rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, so they have significantly more upside than usual.
Terry Rozier should feast in this spot. He’s played a ton of minutes recently, and his current minute projection of 36.8 ranks second at the position. He’s also been productive with his playing time, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel.
Chris Paul has one of the best individual matchups on the slate. He’s taking on Trae Young and the Hawks, and Young ranks dead last among qualified point guards in terms of ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus. Unsurprisingly, he leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.72 on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s going to be important to monitor the injury report heading into lineup lock. Beal and Paul George stand out as the top two options at the shooting guard position, but both players’ status is currently unknown. Make sure to utilize the Labs’ Insiders tool for any updates.
Of the two, our NBA Models give a slight edge to Beal on FanDuel and George on DraftKings. Beal is projected for more minutes and fantasy points, but the gap in salary between the two players is large enough on DraftKings to push the needle in his direction.
Value
Malik Monk sat out the Hornets last game, but he’s currently listed as probable for Tuesday’s matchup. He scored at least 32.75 DraftKings the last two times he’s suited up, so he has nice upside at his current price tag. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Devonte’ Graham is another potential target for the Hornets. He’s seen a nice spike in playing time with LaMelo Ball out of the lineup, culminating in 31.7 FanDuel points over 39.3 minutes in his last outing. He leads the shooting guard position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05 on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Seth Curry could be another nice source of value on Tuesday. He’s coming off a poor outing in his last contest, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his previous seven games on FanDuel. Overall, he’s increased his production to 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,400 salary.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard stands out as one of the safest options on the slate. The Clippers will continue to be without Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley, and those absences have given Leonard a boost from a fantasy perspective. He’s scored at least 45.0 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the court this season.
He would see an even larger bump in value if George is unable to suit up for the second straight game. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.7% with Ibaka, Beverley, George, and Lou Williams off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.42 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Rui Hachimura has been playing all the minutes he can handle with Davis Bertans out of the lineup, and he has the potential to play even more than usual if Beal is ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.3% with Beal off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 DKFP per minute. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.73 is also the top mark at the position on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Danny Green has played some of his best basketball of the season recently. His stock is on the rise with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, and he’s scored at least 32.5 DraftKings points in four of his past six games. He’s increased his production to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 31.6 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him simply too cheap at $4,800 on DraftKings.
I don’t blame you if you want to load up on the Hornets tonight. There just simply aren’t a ton of other teams in appealing spots. Gordon Hayward certainly deserves attention on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. His nine Pro Trends is also tied for the most at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has been doing some serious work for the 76ers with Embiid out of the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.39 over his past 10 games. Overall, he’s increased his usage rate by +3.7% in 14 games without Embiid this season, resulting in a team-high 1.22 FanDuel points per minute.
Harris leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he’s a very safe investment at $8,600.
Value
P.J. Washington’s playing time has been all over the place this season, but he’s simply too cheap at $5,600 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s coming off more than 44 minutes in his last outing, so there’s also a chance his minute projection is a bit conservative.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Hornets, Miles Bridges also saw a nice spike in playing time in his last game. He finished with 18 points and 12 rebounds over nearly 36.8 minutes, albeit in an overtime contest. His minute count should decrease with no overtime, but the Hornets have played a tight rotation since losing Ball to an injury. In other words, he should still be highly involved tonight vs. the Wizards.
Khem Birch lost some minutes to Otto Porter and Wendell Carter Jr. in Orlando’s last game, but he still finished with approximately 25.9 minutes of playing time. Birch has averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that’s enough playing time to keep him relevant at $4,800.
Center
Stud
This could be the rare slate to target Nikola Jokic at reduced ownership. Most people will likely gravitate to Beal and Leonard, particularly if their stud teammates are ultimately ruled out. Jokic has also finished with 48.5 DraftKings points or less in two of his past three games.
That makes Jokic a very appealing pivot. He’s been as good as ever recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.78 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his $10,500 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s an elite tournament option, even in a subpar matchup vs. the 76ers.
Value
Most of the top values at center on Tuesday stand out on DraftKings, but Dwight Howard is an exception. His $5,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%, which makes him the clear top target at the position on that site. He’s averaged a stout 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should see plenty of playing time to try and slow down Jokic.
Fast Break
Clint Capela is arguably the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s only playing around 30 minutes on most nights, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 47.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Deandre Ayton is another center who isn’t seeing a ton of playing time at the moment, but he’s made the most of his minutes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, and his salary remains reasonable at $6,400.
