The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is back. He technically never left, but he’s back to producing like the elite fantasy point guard he was during his prime. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.63 over that time frame.
His salary has come up over that time frame, but he’s still very reasonably priced at $9,600 on FanDuel. His salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%, and his 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. He also owns a strong individual matchup vs. the Grizzlies, who employ one of the worst defensive point guards in the league in Ja Morant. He ranks 82nd out of 83 qualifiers at the position in terms of ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Value
Elfrid Payton is listed as doubtful against the Spurs, which puts him on track to miss his fourth consecutive game. That makes Derrick Rose a very appealing target. He’s been fantastic in his first three starts in place of Payton, averaging 31.75 DraftKings points per game over 32.4 minutes.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. His matchup vs. the Knicks is not ideal – New York ranks third in defensive efficiency and last in pace – but he should continue to benefit from the Spurs’ shorthanded lineup. Keldon Johnson could return after missing the past three games due to health and safety protocols, but Derrick White, Rudy Gay, and Devin Vassell don’t seem ready to suit up yet. LaMarcus Aldridge has also been ruled out on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates on the Spurs and the rest of the slate’s teams.
Monte Morris has carried a large workload for the Nuggets recently, and that doesn’t figure to change vs. the Bucks. Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, and Gary Harris are expected to be sidelined through the All-Star break, while Facundo Campazzo and R.J. Hampton remain out due to health and safety protocols. Morris is currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.68 on DraftKings with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Most people will likely opt to pay up elsewhere on the card, but Paul George is a strong option on FanDuel. He’s been excellent recently, averaging 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. That’s caused his salary to dip to just $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%. He’s a nice buy-low option at that price tag, even in a tough matchup against the Celtics.
Value
Lonnie Walker is another member of the Spurs who has benefitted from their COVID-19 absences. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on FanDuel, including a 38.8 FanDuel point performance in his last game. His price has barely budged on FanDuel despite his excellent numbers recently, and his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Donte DiVincenzo has increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s been playing around 30 minutes recently. That number could decrease a bit as Jrue Holiday works his way back into the rotation, but Holiday was limited to just 18 minutes in his first game back. That means DiVincenzo should be locked into a healthy workload for at least another game or two. He’s an excellent value at $5,100 given his Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Dillon Brooks hasn’t been playing as many minutes recently as he was at the beginning of the season, but he should still be able to return value in an elite matchup vs. the Wizards. They rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Grizzlies’ implied team total of 118.5 ranks second on the slate. Brooks has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with around 30 minutes in this matchup.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has somewhat surprisingly taken on a large workload for the Clippers this season. He’s currently projected for a position-high 36.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s routinely eclipsed 37 minutes in games that have stayed competitive.
That makes him very appealing at just $8,800 on DraftKings. His current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Leonard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.84 with a comparable salary as a member of the Clippers. That number doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but he’s never been projected for as many minutes as he is tonight with a comparable salary. That’s an appealing combination.
Value
P.J. Dozier is someone who should be asked to play a few additional minutes for the Nuggets given all their injuries. He recently returned to the lineup following an extended absence, but he played 18.3 minutes in his last game. That was a solid step up from his 14.5 minutes in his first game back. If he can take another step forward today, he’ll have a chance to deliver excellent value at just $3,200 on DraftKings. Dozier has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Fast Break
R.J. Barrett is another member of the Knicks who has benefited from Payton’s absence. His playing time is way up over his past two games, and he’s scored at least 36.25 DraftKings points in each of those contests. He’s a strong option across the industry.
Will Barton has not been the same per-minute force this season that he has been in years past, but he’s simply too cheap at $4,900 on FanDuel given the sheer volume of minutes he’s played recently. He’s currently projected for 33.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and Barton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.49 with a comparable salary and minute projection this season.
Power Forward
Stud
The Bucks have quietly started to look like the team from the past two seasons. They’ve won each of their past five games – including a win over the Clippers in their last outing – and the play of Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a big reason why. Giannis got off to a slow start this season by his standards, but he’s been on an absolute mission recently. He’s increased his production to 1.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is easily the top mark in the league. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.43 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
It’s hard not to love him against the Nuggets. Milwaukee leads the slate with an implied team total of 121.0, and the Nuggets have no one on their roster that can guard him currently. Millsap and Green would be their two best options, but both of those players are out of the lineup. Expect another monster performance from the Greek Freak.
Value
Taj Gibson is out for the Knicks, and his absence has a sneaky impact on this slate. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has not been willing to move Kevin Knox into the rotation in his absence, and Obi Toppin is still playing limited minutes off the bench. That means Nerlens Noel and Julius Randle have combined for the vast majority of the frontcourt minutes.
Noel led the team with 39.6 minutes in their last game after logging nearly 41.3 minutes in his previous contest. Noel has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, so it’s nearly impossible for him to bust at $5,500 with that much playing time. He’s also in a great spot tonight vs. the Spurs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15.
Fast Break
Randle is in play for many of the same reasons as Noel. He leads the position in terms of projected minutes, and his 13 Pro Trends are also the most at the position on FanDuel. He’s scored at least 51.6 FanDuel points in back-to-back games without Payton, and he has averaged a stout 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Michael Porter Jr. has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he has also played big minutes for the Nuggets recently. He’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, which makes him an appealing target in a pace-up spot vs. the Bucks.
Center
Stud
It’s a tough call between Giannis and Nikola Jokic for the top overall spot on today’s slate. Both players have been insanely good recently, and Jokic is coming off a brilliant 77.0 DraftKings point performance in his last outing. Jokic is also slightly cheaper than Giannis across the industry, and he has an edge in terms of Pro Trends, as well.
Overall, the ideal strategy is to jam both of these guys into your lineups. That’s going to be challenging on DraftKings – it leaves you with an average of $4,700 for your remaining six roster spots – but it’s definitely doable.
Value
Brook Lopez is one of my favorite sources of value. He’s played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games, and the Bucks are going to need him for big minutes again vs. the Nuggets. He should see plenty of time matched up against Jokic since he’s the only true center in the rotation. You can’t play him on FanDuel if you’re going to roster Jokic – which is highly recommended – but he’s a better value on DraftKings, anyways. He’s priced at just $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has been priced down to just $6,700 on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting buy-low option vs. the Lakers. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Ayton has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.87 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Jonas Valanciunas is an interesting contrarian option for FanDuel tournaments. He should check in with a fraction of the ownership of Jokic, but he has an excellent ceiling vs. the Wizards. They have been dreadful vs. opposing centers this season, giving Valanciunas an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.28 overall.
