Tuesday features Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks, with things set to start at 8:30 p.m. ET. in this matchup.
If you are unfamiliar with single-game/showdown slates, check out my primers for DraftKings and FanDuel before constructing rosters.
Series Overview
The Bucks only own a one-game lead in this series, but the feeling around the industry is that this series is over. The Hawks jumped out to a 15-point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, but the Bucks were able to completely erase that deficit by halftime. The Hawks also took the lead in the third quarter, but Khris Middleton came alive in the fourth. He outscored the Hawks by a margin of 20-17, which allowed the team to cruise to an easy victory.
The turning point in that game was the injury to Trae Young. He stepped on an official’s foot near the end of the third quarter, and he was a clear detriment to the team when he returned in the fourth. The Hawks were outscored by 15 points over his 7.9 minutes, and he managed just one made field goal, zero assists, zero rebounds, and one turnover.
Young is questionable for Game 4, and while he’s expected to play, there’s no guarantee he’s anywhere near full strength. The Hawks have only managed to hang in this series when Young has been doing special things offensively, so it’s tough to envision them being competitive if he’s limited.
The Bucks are currently listed as seven-point road favorites, which is a pretty astronomical number for the conference finals. That means Vegas views the Bucks are roughly 10 points better than the Hawks on a neutral court. That feels high on the surface, but it could be fair if Young is hampered.
Overall, the Bucks have moved to massive -2000 favorites to win this series, and they’re around -115 to win the NBA championship as well.
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo looked like a man on a mission in Game 3. He was driving to the rim relentlessly, and he finished with 33 points over 40.8 minutes. He added in 11 rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block, bringing his fantasy total to 58.75 DraftKings points for the evening.
As good as that numbers are, that’s basically what you can expect from Giannis on a nightly basis. He’s scored at least 55.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and the only exception was the blowout victory over the Hawks in Game 2. Giannis played just 29.1 minutes in that contest, but he still finished with 48.75 DraftKings points. He’s the safest investment in fantasy, and he should be in 100% of your lineups.
Young is a dicier proposition. He told reporters after Game 3 that his ankle injury eliminated his ability to blow by defenders. That’s a huge problem. If Young can’t use his speed to his advantage, it takes away basically everything that makes him special as a basketball player.
Still, I’m bullish on Young in Game 4. He’s a gamer, and he’s risen to the moment all postseason. His salary has dropped to just $10,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 98 percent. That makes him just slightly more expensive than guys like Middleton and Jrue Holiday, but he possesses considerably more upside.
Middleton and Holiday round out this tier, and both players have delivered solid value during the postseason. Holiday has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight consecutive games, while Middleton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine. Middleton should garner increased ownership following his big performance in Game 3 — he finished with a game-high 64.75 DraftKings points — but our Models prefer Holiday at a cheaper price tag.
Midrange
The Hawks big men headline this tier, but neither player has provided much value in this series. John Collins struggled with foul trouble in Game 3, which limited him to just 23.2 minutes. He should return to his normal workload, and has scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games with at least 36 minutes. He’s been priced up over that time frame on DraftKings, but his $12,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 83 percent.
It’s tougher to make a case for Clint Capela. He’s lost playing time recently even without foul trouble, and he’s scored 30.25 DraftKings points or fewer in five of his past six games. He was excellent on a per-minute basis during the regular season and should carry reduced ownership, but he’s still not a particularly appealing buy-low target.
Brook Lopez is even less appealing. The Bucks have slashed his minutes in this series, and he’s currently projected for just 26.8 minutes in our NBA Models. However, he remains priced like a full-time player. He’s a clear fade at his current salary.
Kevin Huerter is coming off his best game of the series in Game 3, finishing with 34.0 DraftKings points over 36.6 minutes. That said, he benefitted from seven assists, which is a clear outlier for him. He hasn’t had more than four assists in any previous postseason contest, so expect some regression in that department in Game 4. He’s still too expensive following his performances against Seth Curry in the 76ers in the previous round.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is a more appealing target. He looked healthier in Game 3 after struggling with a knee injury, and he’s listed as probable for Game 4. He’s previously been listed as questionable, so that’s a step in the right direction. Bogdanovic finished with 23.5 DraftKings points in his last contest, and he shot just 3 of 16 from the field. That gives him the potential for a better performance.
Danilo Gallinari could be asked to do some heavy lifting if Young is limited offensively. He’s one of the only other players on the roster capable of creating his own shot, and he’s coming off nearly 36 minutes in Game 3. He might not see as much playing time in Game 4, but he does need to at his current salary.
Values & Punts
- Bobby Portis ($4,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Portis was basically mothballed during the series vs. the Nets, but he’s been a big factor vs. the Hawks. He’s played at least 14.7 minutes in all three games, and Portis has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three games. He has been priced up for Game 4, but he’s one of the best producers in this series on a per-minute basis.
- P.J. Tucker ($3,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Tucker continues to play big minutes for the Bucks, but he’s more important to the Bucks than to fantasy owners. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, but he provides very little from a ceiling perspective.
- Pat Connaughton ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Connaughton is another player who has seen a spike in playing time in this series. He’s benefitted from the decision to play small, with his minutes coming at the direct expense of Lopez. He’s scored at least 15.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s a reasonable option at his current salary across the industry.
- Lou Williams ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Williams could also be asked to do some heavier lifting than usual if Young isn’t at 100%. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of providing some offensive upside when called upon.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Okongwu is an interesting option at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 9.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, which represents great production on a per-dollar basis.
