Tuesday features Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers, which is slated for at 9 p.m. ET. tip.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
Series Overview
The Suns managed to secure a home victory in Game 1 of this series, and they’ll have a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead with a victory. That’s normally a death sentence in the NBA playoffs, but we’ve already seen the Clippers dig out of that hole twice this year. They fell behind 0-2 to the Mavericks and Jazz, but were able to win both series.
The main storyline of this postseason has been injuries, and this game is no exception. The Suns will be without Chris Paul for the second straight game due to health and safety protocols, while Kawhi Leonard will miss his fourth consecutive game due to a sprained knee. The good news is that Marcus Morris is not listed on the injury report for Game 2. He played just six minutes in the second half of Game 1, and Ivica Zubac ultimately started the second half in his place. It’s unclear if Morris or Zubac will start in Game 2, so make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for updates.
The Suns are currently listed as 4.5-point favorites in Game 2, while the total sits at 223.0 points.
Studs
Two players stand out above the rest on the slate: Paul George and Devin Booker. Not only are they two excellent players, but both should benefit from their team’s injury situations.
George has been asked to take on a larger workload with Leonard out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.4% in three games without Leonard during the postseason, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been excellent during the playoffs even when Leonard has been active, posting a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of 14 games on DraftKings. George has scored at least 54.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, and he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 70 DraftKings points.
As good as George has been, Booker will likely get more attention on this slate. He was absolutely brilliant in Game 1 of this series, finishing with 77.75 DraftKings points thanks to 40 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists. The scoring numbers aren’t all that surprising — he’s one of the most gifted young scorers in the league — but his 11 assists were tied for his highest output of the season. He had more than eight assists in just one of his previous 77 games this season, so he clearly benefited from playing more point guard with Paul sidelined. Still, it seems like he’s due for some regression on the slate.
Booker still possesses an elite ceiling, but I think George’s is slightly higher. He owns the superior projections in our NBA Models, and he’s only slightly more expensive across the industry.
Deandre Ayton is the only other player who can be considered a stud on this slate, and even that is a bit of a stretch. Ayton has been outstanding during the playoffs, but he’s provided more real-life value than fantasy value. He’s been hyper-efficient as a scorer, and he’s also a threat to pull down double-digit rebounds. That said, his ceiling seems capped at around 40 DraftKings points. I’m fine with sacrificing him on the slate if that’s what it takes to roster George and Booker.
Midrange
Reggie Jackson has stepped into the role of the Clippers’ No. 2 scorer with Leonard sidelined, and he’s thrived in that role. He’s scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, including 54.25 DraftKings points in a Game 6 victory against the Jazz. He’s been priced up pretty aggressively, but he still has some appeal on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Mikal Bridges is an easy cross-off for me on today’s slate. He’s become an important part of the Suns’ rotation, but he just doesn’t provide much in terms of fantasy value. He’s a low-usage player, and he doesn’t contribute much in the peripheral categories, either. That doesn’t give him the needed upside to justify this price tag.
Nicolas Batum is another player who has been priced up aggressively since the start of the postseason, especially on FanDuel. He checks in at $13,000 for Game 2, which makes him the third-most-expensive player on the slate.
He’s not viable at that price tag, but you can still consider him on DraftKings at $7,600. He’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Jae Crowder is always an appealing target in the single-game format. He’s a strong contributor on a per-minute basis, and he possesses a decent ceiling, as well. He’s not shy about shooting the ball from 3-point range, so he can rack up fantasy points on nights where his shot is falling.
Morris is an interesting option from a game theory perspective. He will likely carry reduced ownership given his injury in Game 1, and he definitely has a lower floor than some of the players in this price range. There’s still a scenario where he plays significant minutes in this contest, which makes him an interesting contrarian target.
I’d much rather play Morris than Terance Mann in this price range. Mann racked up a monster performance in Game 6 against the Jazz, but he came crashing back to reality in Game 1 vs. the Suns. He posted a usage rate of just 6.7%, and he racked up just four shot attempts. He could see a few additional shot attempts in Game 2, but Mann remains overpriced across the industry.
Cameron Payne should command massive ownership on today’s slate, but anything less than 100% is probably a mistake on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $6,200 despite moving into the starting lineup in place of Paul. He’s been fantastic on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s increased that figure slightly with Paul off the court during the postseason. Payne is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t pay off his salary with that much playing time. Payne also has enough upside to warrant some Captain consideration.
Values & Punts
- Cameron Johnson ($5,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Johnson has the potential to play a large role in this series. The Clippers play a lot of wings, and Johnson should see a boost in playing time for as long as Paul is inactive. He’s coming off 24.4 minutes in Game 1 and he responded with 22.0 DraftKings points.
- Ivica Zubac ($4,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): The only concern with Zubac is playing time. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he clearly has appeal if he sees minutes. The only problem is that he’s essentially been played off the court during the postseason. The injury to Morris does give him some upside, but he has a low floor, as well.
- Torrey Craig ($3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Craig plays limited minutes for the Suns, but he’s typically pretty effective when on the court. He’s scored at least 18.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, but he’s a lot less appealing at $3,400 than he was at just $1,000.
- Rajon Rondo ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Rondo is dirt-cheap on today’s slate, and he’s an excellent per-minute producer. He’s coming off 22.3 minutes in Game 1 of this series, and he responded with 25.25 DraftKings points. He’s projected for 15 minutes on today’s slate, and he can pay off his price tag with that much playing time.
- Dario Saric ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Saric was priced at $3,600 on DraftKings in Game 1, but his price has dipped by -$1,200 for Game 2. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside, but he can potentially return value at his reduced salary.
- DeMarcus Cousins ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): I’m not sure why the Clippers continue to play Cousins. They were outscored by -11 points over Cousins 13.8 minutes in Game 1, but they still continue to give him a chance. He posted a sky-high 46.0% usage rate when on the court in Game 1 and responded with 19.0 DraftKings points. There’s always a chance he could be moth-balled, but he has upside if he plays.
