Tuesday features Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals series between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks, starting at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
Series Overview
The biggest storyline in this series has been the Nets’ injuries. James Harden left after less than a minute in Game 1, while Kyrie Irving suffered a nasty-looking ankle injury in Game 4. That has allowed the Bucks to crawl back into this series, which is currently tied at two games apiece.
The Nets initially ruled out both Harden and Irving for Game 5, but Harden has now been upgraded to doubtful. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that Harden is determined to play in this contest, and he is expected to test his injured hamstring during pregame warmups. It will be interesting to see if Harden can talk his way onto the court and just how limited he would be in that situation.
With Harden not expected to play currently, the Bucks appear to have the edge in this series. They’re listed as four-point road favorites in Game 5, and they’ve moved to approximately -175 to win the series.
The Harden factor will obviously be a major factor, so make sure to monitor this situation using the Labs Insiders tool. There will likely be some spread movement if he does try to suit up, and it would have an impact on the Nets in DFS, as well.
Studs
The Nets have done a pretty good job on Giannis Antetokounmpo to start the series. He’s scored 57.75 DraftKings points or fewer in each of the first four games, and they’ve made him inefficient as a scorer. He’s still been able to generate plenty of shots at the rim – no one can keep Giannis from doing that completely – but he’s shot just 19.0% from 3-point range and 37.9% from the free throw line.
His production in the peripheral categories is also down. He’s averaged just 3.3 assists and 1.0 blocks + steals per game in this series, both of which represent sizable decreases compared to his regular season averages. Giannis remains one of the best in the business on a per-minute basis, but his upside is a bit lower in that department than usual.
If Harden is unable to suit up, Kevin Durant is going to be asked to carry the scoring load for the Nets. He’s seen a massive +14.6% usage bump with Harden and Irving off the court during the postseason, resulting in an average of 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. The Bucks will try to make his life difficult by throwing P.J. Tucker at him as much as possible, but Durant has still found success in that matchup. Tucker has slowed Durant down slightly, but he’s still shooting 46.5% from the field with Tucker as his primary defender. He should command massive ownership in this contest, but anything less than 100% is probably a mistake.
Harden is the wild card in this price range. If he suits up, he’s going to become very interesting from a game-theory perspective. There is obviously a ton of risk of reinjury or ineffectiveness, but he should check in with a fraction of the ownership of Giannis and Durant. His price has also decreased significantly since Game 1, and his $10,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96 percent. Ultimately, what you decide to do with Harden comes down to your level of risk tolerance.
Midrange
Khris Middleton got off to a brutal start in this series, shooting just 13-43 from the field during the first two games. However, he’s been able to right the ship over the past two. He’s shot approximately 50 percent from the field over those contests, and he’s finished with at least 44.0 DraftKings points in both games.
On the other hand, Jrue Holiday continues to struggle. He scored at least 38.5 DraftKings points in all four games vs. the Heat, but he’s yet to crack that threshold vs. the Nets. That said, he’s a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot the ball dreadfully in this series, shooting just 39.0% from the field, 30.0% from 3-point range, and 33.3% from the free-throw line. Holiday is obviously capable of putting up much better numbers, and he did post his second-highest usage rate of the series in Game 4. This seems like a nice buy-low opportunity.
There’s a huge drop-off after Middleton and Holiday to the next tier of players. Joe Harris is the next priciest option on DraftKings, but he doesn’t possess nearly the same upside. He’s a one-dimensional player, and he needs to make a bunch of 3-pointers to have a shot at returning value. He’s capable of doing that – Harris is arguably the best 3-point shooter in the league – but he’s had fewer open looks than usual with Harden and Irving out of the lineup.
It turns out, Harris is a lot easier to guard when he’s your No. 2 option offensively instead of your No. 4. He’s averaged just 0.45 DraftKings points per minute with Irving and Harden off the court during the postseason, so I have zero interest in him.
If you are looking to play Harris, you’re better off doing it on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Brook Lopez has been extremely reliable for the Bucks during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of eight games, including all four games vs. the Nets. He’s managed to score at least 27.75 DraftKings points in each of his past two games despite posting a usage rate of less than 10 percent. Unfortunately, his salary has taken a massive jump for Game 5. His price tag has increased from $5,400 to $7,000 on DraftKings, and he’s a lot tougher to trust at that salary.
Blake Griffin is another member of the Nets who could be asked to pick up the slack if Harden is out on Tuesday. He looked doner than done during his time with the Pistons, but he has found the fountain of youth in Brooklyn. He’s displayed some of the athleticism that made him famous recently, and he’s increased his usage rate by +6.5% with Harden and Irving off the court during the postseason.
Bruce Brown and Landry Shamet round out this price range, but neither player figures to provide much fantasy value. Brown is projected for just 20.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and Shamet is projected for just 16.5. Shamet has seen one of the largest usage bumps on the squad with Harden and Irving off the court during the playoffs, but he likely won’t see enough playing time for that to matter.
Values & Punts
- P.J. Tucker ($4,800 on DraftKings | $8,500 on FanDuel): Tucker is on the floor for his defensive impact, not his ability to rack up fantasy points. Still, it’s hard to ignore someone who plays as much as Tucker at such a cheap price tag. He made some open 3-pointers in his last game, and he has the potential to pay off his salary when that happens.
- Mike James ($4,400 on DraftKings | $9,500 on FanDuel): James is a steal at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He drew the start in place of Irving in the second half, and the Nets are going to need his offense if Harden is unable to suit up. He’s struggled in back-to-back games, but he’s capable of averaging close to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute.
- Pat Connaughton ($3,800 on DraftKings | $7,500 on FanDuel): It’s tough to consider the Bucks in this price range when the Nets seem to possess much more upside, but that should make those players contrarian in tournaments. Connaughton gave the Bucks some excellent minutes in Game 4, but his four steals and two blocks were definitely fluky. He’s a regression candidate in Game 5.
- Jeff Green ($3,400 on DraftKings | $9,000 on FanDuel): Green also moved into the starting lineup in the second half of Game 5, and the Nets could start him again if Harden is out. He’s a more offensive-minded player than Brown, and head coach Steve Nash might decide he needs that in the lineup. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s basically a lock to return value with that much playing time.
- Tyler Johnson ($1,400 on DraftKings | $7,000 on FanDuel): Johnson could have some appeal as a pure punt play on DraftKings. He’s been a non-factor so far in this series, but there are minutes available in the Nets’ backcourt.
