The NBA playoffs card Tuesday features a three-game slate, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving is coming off an eventful Game 4 against the Celtics. Most of the attention got placed on what happened after the game, but don’t forget how dominant this guy was on the court. He finished with 63.75 DraftKings points thanks to 39 points and 11 rebounds. The Nets lead the slate with an implied team total of 123.0 points, and his $8,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
The Celtics are not in a very good place at the moment. They’re facing elimination in Brooklyn and expected to be without Kemba Walker and Robert Williams for the second consecutive game. That’s not good for their chances of winning this contest, but it is a positive for Payton Pritchard’s fantasy stock. He played 23.7 minutes with both players out of the lineup in Game 4 and responded with 22.75 DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few extra minutes. He’s a steal at just $3,200.
Fast Break
Most of the best values at the point guard position are on DraftKings, but Monte Morris stands out as an exception. He’s priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four postseason contests. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 27.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
Paul is an excellent target at $6,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.22 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden got off to a slow start in this series, but he’s racked up at least 65.75 DraftKings in his past two games. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.60 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark among today’s players. He’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, so Harden provides an appealing combination of volume and efficiency on today’s slate.
Value
Marcus Smart is another member of the Celtics who should be asked to pick up the slack with Walker and Williams out of the lineup. He’s finished with at least 37.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and his 21.5% usage rate in Game 4 was his highest of the series. He’s seen a 3.8% usage bump with Walker and Jaylen Brown off the court this season, which is the third-highest mark on the team.
Fast Break
Devin Booker has been a bit of a disappointment recently, but he checks a lot of boxes on today’s slate. No one at the position is projected for more minutes, and his $7,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. He also leads the position with nine Pro Trends. Booker has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.36 with a comparable price tag, including a mark of +3.09 this season. He’s a strong buy-low target.
Norman Powell is coming off his best game of the series in Game 4, finishing with 29 points and 40.5 DraftKings points over 34.8 minutes. He’s simply too cheap at $5,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has not been asked to carry a large workload for the Lakers since returning from an ankle injury. His fantasy production has dipped to just 1.36 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored less than 50.0 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games. That’s not what we’ve come to expect from James, particularly during the playoffs.
Of course, the injury to Anthony Davis changes everything. He’s not expected to suit up in a crucial Game 5 against the Suns. History suggests that whichever team wins this game will win the series, and the Lakers enter this contest as underdogs. With that in mind, James is going to have to carry a heavy burden. There’s zero chance I’m fading him at his current price tag in a must-win contest for the Lakers.
Value
Sticking with the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma is another player who should see a boost in value sans Davis. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.9% with Davis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.87 FanDuel points per minute. He played 25.4 minutes in Game 4, which was his highest mark of the series, and he’s currently projected for 29.6 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s an elite value at just $4,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Fast Break
Bruce Brown is another strong value at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an elite mark considering his price tag. He’s played at least 21.6 minutes in two of his past three games, and that should be enough playing time for him to return value.
Evan Fournier has struggled for the Celtics during the postseason, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. That’s caused his price tag to drop to just $5,500 on FanDuel for Game 5, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 84%. Fournier is currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 29.52 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in three games without Brown and Walker this season.
Power Forward
Stud
The only way that the Celtics survive elimination tonight is if Jayson Tatum is the best player on the court. That’s unlikely when he’s sharing the court with Harden, Irving, and Kevin Durant, but it’s not impossible. He’s already had two 50-point games during the postseason, and he has blossomed into a bonafide superstar over the past two seasons. Tatum has increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.9% with Brown and Walker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. He should play at least 40 minutes in Game 5, which makes him an excellent target at $10,000 on DraftKings.
Value
There are more value options than usual available for a postseason slate, and Markieff Morris deserves to be added to the list. He could potentially move into the starting lineup if Davis is ruled out, and he should see a boost in minutes even if he comes off the bench. He’s averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. has dual SF/PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s a strong buy-low target on Tuesday. His price tag has decreased by -$1,400 over his past 10 games, and he finished with just 8.75 DraftKings points in his last outing. That said, he was limited to just 22.9 minutes in a blowout loss, so he should return to his usual workload if today’s game is more competitive. MPJ has operated as the Nuggets’ No. 2 option offensively with Jamal Murray out of the lineup, so he has the potential to crush his current price tag.
Aaron Gordon is another nice buy-low target for the Nuggets. His price has dipped to just $5,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he played nearly 34 minutes in Game 3 of this series.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokić was a disaster in Game 4, finishing with just 28.25 DraftKings points over 26.7 minutes, but he had scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in each of his previous three games. His average of 1.67 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is the top mark among today’s players, and he’s one of the strongest options to pay up for on the slate.
Pairing Jokić with LeBron will likely be the default lineup construction for most people on the slate, so expect that combination to command massive ownership.
Value
The Lakers have dusted off Marc Gasol during this series, and he’s given them some quality minutes. He’s coming off a series-high 23.3 minutes in Game 4, and he responded with 35.5 DraftKings. He should see a similar workload if Davis is ruled out, and he’s increased his usage rate by +2.2% with Davis off the court this season. He’s an intriguing value play at $3,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Tristan Thompson stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.11 also gives him the best individual matchup among today’s centers. He should see a solid handful of playing time if Williams is ruled out, and Thompson has increased his usage rate by +3.9% with Brown and Walker off the court this season.
Jusuf Nurkić is one of the best producers at the position on a per-minute basis, and he’s increased his production to 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price has increased since the start of the postseason, but he’s still capable of paying off his current salary across the industry.
