The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a seven-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry is playing as well this season as he has at any point during his career. He’s averaging 29.5 points per game, shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 43.0% from three-point range that results in an average of 49.2 DraftKings per game. His average of 1.46 DraftKings per minute this season, trailing only Joel Embiid’s mark of 1.63 in the category.
Curry takes the court in an excellent spot against the Spurs. They’ve played at the 10th-fastest pace this season, and the Warriors’ implied-team total of 114.5 points is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Curry torched this team for 57.75 DraftKings points yesterday and should be able to repeat that success.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, the Spurs have a pair of appealing point guard targets.
Dejounte Murray was an absolute beast yesterday, racking up 65.0 FanDuel points thanks to 27 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and eight steals. He should continue to see a few additional shot attempts per game with LaMarcus Aldridge out of the lineup, making him an appealing target across the industry.
Patty Mills is also a viable target on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82 percent. He’s currently projected for 26.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and Mills has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.78 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
John Wall stands out as one of the best values on the slate for the shorthanded Rockets. Christian Wood remains out of the lineup due to an ankle injury, while Victor Oladipo will get the night off for rest. Wall has increased his usage rate by +5.2% with Wood, Oladipo, and James Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. His matchup vs. the Pelicans is also elite, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 on DraftKings.
Point guard is absolutely loaded on the slate. Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard could be a bit overlooked, but both players have the potential to put up massive fantasy totals. Irving will benefit from Kevin Durant being out of the lineup, while Lillard should see another huge workload without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is a bit pricy, but it’s impossible to deny his upside. He’s posted four triple doubles in 11 games with the Nets, averaging more than 55.0 DraftKings points per game since moving to Brooklyn. His scoring numbers are down, but he’ll have the opportunity to do a bit more scoring than usual with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. Harden has increased his usage rate by approximately +1.0% with Durant off the court, so he’ll have the opportunity to improve on his average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Harden also owns an excellent matchup against the Pistons. They rank just tied for 22nd in terms of defensive efficiency, and the Nets’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks first on the slate.
Value
The injuries continue to pile up for the Orlando Magic. Evan Fournier is the latest player to hit the sidelines, and he’ll be joined by Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz, and Michael Carter-Williams. Terrence Ross should continue to come off the bench, but he has the potential to play a few extra minutes with Fournier out of the lineup. He posted a usage rate of 36.2% without Fournier in their last game, but he was limited to just 20.1 minutes in a blowout loss. He has excellent upside at $4,500 on FanDuel if today’s game is a bit more competitive.
Fast Break
Lonnie Walker hasn’t made as big of a leap as expected for the Spurs this season, but he’s still seeing a solid handful of minutes. He’s currently projected for 28.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a lot of playing time considering his $3,600 salary on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.61.
Eric Gordon got the night off yesterday for the Rockets, but he should be back in the lineup for this game. He’ll have a chance to play a few additional minutes, with a likely larger usage rate with Wood and Oladipo sidelined, and his $5,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has SF/PF eligibility on DraftKings, which is where he’s most appealing. He’s underpriced at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88 percent.
DeRozan has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Aldridge. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.4% with Aldridge off the court, resulting in an average of 1.25 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Joe Ingles entered the starting lineup in place of Mike Conley in the Jazz’s last game, and Conley remains out for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Celtics. Ingles has been fantastic recently – he’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month – so he can definitely take advantage of additional playing time.
Ingles stands out as an elite value at just $4,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88 percent.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant has cooled off a bit after a torrid start to the season, but he’s coming off 53.0 DraftKings points in yesterday’s overtime loss to the Lakers. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Sterling Brown has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should see a bit more playing time than usual with Oladipo out of the lineup. He’s scored at least 23.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, so he’s an appealing punt play at just $3,200.
Power Forward
Stud
The Celtics will be an interesting team to monitor leading up to tip-off. Jaylen Brown has missed the past two games, and he’s currently listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup vs. the Jazz. The Jazz aren’t a great team to target, but the Celtics would still have some appeal if they’re shorthanded.
Jayson Tatum would be the biggest beneficiary. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.3% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He exploded for 55.4 DraftKings points in his first full game without Brown, and he’s projected for the second-most minutes on the entire slate.
Make sure to monitor Brown’s status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Value
Blake Griffin is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime. He’s gone from one of the best athletes in the history of the PF position to a guy who is merely happy to not get hurt when he’s on the court. That said, he’s still averaged a respectable 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can easily pay off his current salary across the industry.
He didn’t play last night against the Lakers, but he should be back in the lineup for the contest against the Nets. Brooklyn has struggled against opposing big men this season, giving Griffin an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.33 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay is not the sexiest player to roster in DFS, but he’s a solid target at his current price tag. He’s logged at least 25.2 minutes in back-to-back games without Aldridge, and he’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with Aldridge off the court this season.
Zion Williamson is quietly starting to heat up. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.13 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of those contests. He should be able to have his way on the interior against a Rockets’ squad that ranks 26th in team rebound rate.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic is arguably the best play on the entire slate. He’s been a monster to begin with this season – he’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute – and he has the potential to improve on that number tonight vs. the Blazers. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.7% and his assist rate by +6.8% with Fournier, Gordon, Fultz, and Carter-Williams off the court this season, which gives him a significantly higher ceiling than usual.
The Blazers are also an excellent matchup. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and Vucevic should have a massive edge against Enes Kanter. He leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s underpriced across the industry.
Value
DeMarcus Cousins remains vastly underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He didn’t exactly dominate yesterday, finishing with 29.3 FanDuel points, but he played just 25 minutes in a blowout loss. He’s been playing closer to 30 minutes with Wood out of the lineup, so he should be able to improve on that mark.
Fast Break
Jakob Poeltl has played at least 29.1 minutes in three consecutive games without Aldridge, and he’s responded with at least 38.2 FanDuel points in two of them. That gives him an elite ceiling at just $5,500. His matchup against the Warriors is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97.
DeAndre Jordan looks like your best bet if you want to go really cheap at the position. He’s scored at least 21.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games, and his playing time was up with Durant out of the lineup in his last contest. He saw 26.6 minutes in that game, which gives him solid upside given his average of 1.0 DraftKings points per minute this season.
