The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
The top of the PG position is a bit thinner than usual today, but Malcolm Brogdon stands out as an excellent option across the industry. He’s scored at least 40.5 DraftKings points in each of his past four games, yet his salary has decreased by -$700 over that time frame. His current $7,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.50 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Brogdon’s matchup vs. the Grizzlies also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.22 on DraftKings, and Brogdon leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
Value
Kemba Walker is still playing reduced minutes for the Celtics, but he’s been highly productive when on the court. He’s averaging 1.12 FanDuel points per minute since joining the lineup, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary. His price has decreased by -$1,300 over the past two games on FanDuel, so this is a nice buy-low opportunity.
Fast Break
Cole Anthony should see a solid workload for the Magic tonight at point guard. Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams remain out, and Aaron Gordon will join them on the sidelines for the next few weeks. That leaves the Magic without their top three “point guards” on today’s slate.
Anthony has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes. That makes him a solid option at $5,000 on FanDuel.
Two games tonight should dominate the ownership: Nets vs. Clippers and Wizards vs. Blazers. Both games have a total of at least 240.5 points, and all four teams are implied for at least 119.0 points.
Out of those four teams, Damian Lillard stands out at point guard. He’s been priced way up recently, but he’s carried a large workload with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup. The Wizards rank first in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, so this is a potential smash spot.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is an interesting option tonight. He’s the most expensive player on DraftKings and the second-most expensive player on FanDuel, and he’s coming off back-to-back monster performances. The Nets have also been an offensive juggernaut since Harden joined the rotation:
https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1356070417329516548?s=20
That said, I think Harden is a bit too pricey on today’s slate. His usage rate is still way down since joining the Nets, and while he’s been able to make up for it with his passing ability, he’s still averaged just 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. The Clippers also rank eighth in defensive efficiency and 29th in pace, which makes them a very poor matchup from a fantasy perspective. This feels like the right time to sell high.
Value
Terrence Ross is another member of the Magic who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $4,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 69%. Historically, Ross has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.98 with a comparable salary and minute projection as a member of the Magic.
Fast Break
The Raptors are going to be without OG Anunoby for tonight’s matchup vs. the Magic, and Norman Powell is also questionable. That means Fred VanVleet could be looking at an expanded workload. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.2% with both players off the court this season, and he’s scored at least 41.75 DKFP in four of his past five games. He stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Dillon Brooks has seen a price decrease of -$1,500 on FanDuel over the past month, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate. He’s not playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season. He doesn’t need a ton of minutes to pay off his current salary.
Small Forward
Stud
There are some strong options to consider at small forward tonight, but Jaylen Brown stands out as arguably the best pure value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and his production has been comparable to Kevin Durant’s and Kawhi Leonard’s this season. In fact, Browns’ average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is actually better than Leonard’s mark of 1.30, and Brown is projected for 2.5 additional minutes. That makes him the no-brainer top choice considering the price differential.
Value
Justin Holiday stands out as a nice value for the Pacers. He’s priced at just $4,600 on FanDuel and is currently projected for 35.8 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a ton of playing time for such a minimal price tag, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.47.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier could be the big winner for the Magic tonight. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.2% with Gordon, Fultz, and Carter-Williams off the court this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +15.4%. That added upside as a distributor gives him much more fantasy value than usual, and he’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute with all three players off the court this season.
Jerami Grant should garner minimal ownership today, mostly because he garners minimal ownership on virtually every slate. His production has been a bit down recently, but that’s caused his salary to plummet across the industry. He’s priced at just $7,000 on DraftKings, and Grant has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +12.60 with a comparable salary. He’s an elite pivot off some of the chalkier players in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is another player who has seen a huge price decrease recently. His salary was all the way up at $10,100 on DraftKings just last week, but he’s down to $8,700 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Grizzlies. That makes him a very appealing option. Sabonis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.10 with a comparable salary throughout his career, including a mark of +3.45 this season. The Grizzlies aren’t an ideal matchup, but this is simply too cheap for a player of Sabonis’ caliber.
Value
The Warriors could be a nice source of value at the power forward position. James Wiseman has been ruled out for tonight’s contest vs. the Celtics, which opens up a few additional minutes.
Draymond Green stands out as the most obvious beneficiary, but his minutes have been capped around 30 on most nights. He could see a few additional minutes with Wiseman out of the lineup, but the majority should land elsewhere. Still, Green has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, so he’s definitely worth consideration at $4,900.
Eric Paschall and Kevon Looney might be the bigger beneficiaries. Looney has started recently, but Paschall has more upside off the bench. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the ability to make the most of his playing time. He’s currently projected for 22.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a steal at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Gary Clark looks like another strong value option. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, but he’s expected to enter the starting lineup in place of Gordon. He’s projected for 31.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.32 with a comparable minute projection.
Jonas Valanciunas will miss another game for the Memphis Grizzlies, so Xavier Tillman remains an appealing target. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has been a reliable producer all season, but he’s in a potential smash spot tonight. He’s taking on the Raptors, who have played at a top-10 pace this season, and Vucevic has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Gordon, Fultz, and Carter-Williams off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.6%, and he’s also increased his assist rate by +5.4%. That gives him the potential to improve upon his average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Vucevic also leads the position with a whopping 16 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Mason Plumlee is coming off a disappointing performance in his last outing, but he’s been an excellent source of value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus each of his previous three contests, and he displayed a ceiling of 35.0 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need much playing time to potentially pay off his $5,400 salary.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert is always underpriced on DraftKings, and Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Pistons is no exception. His $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and the Pistons are an elite matchup. They rank tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39. That’s the top mark at the position.
Aron Baynes has seen a nice spike in production recently, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on FanDuel. He’s coming off more than 29.1 minutes in his last outing, and he could be looking at another expanded workload with Anunoby out of the lineup.
Pictured above: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic
Photo credit: Scott Audette/NBAE via Getty Images
