NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, Feb. 16): Shorthanded Blazers Providing Value

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Damian Lillard should continue to carry a huge workload for the shorthanded Blazers. C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic remain out of the lineup with long-term injuries, and Rodney Hood and Harry Giles will join them on the sidelines Tuesday vs. the Thunder. Lillard posted a usage rate of 41.4% in his last contest, and he’s increased his production to 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s a strong option across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 72%.

Value

Tyus Jones should serve as the Grizzlies’ backup PG tonight with De’Anthony Melton out of the lineup. Jones has thrived when on the court recently – he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – and he’s currently projected for 23.9 minutes in our NBA Models. Jones has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.37 with a comparable minute projection and salary, and he’s averaged more than 26.35 DraftKings points in games where he’s played at least 20 minutes this season (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

Kyrie Irving had it all working last night vs. the Kings. He finished with 40 points on 15-23 shooting, and he was a nearly-perfect 9-11 from 3-point range. Overall, he finished with 56.5 DraftKings points in just 30.7 minutes. He posted a usage rate of 38.2% with Kevin Durant out of the lineup, and he should see another expanded usage rate tonight vs. the Suns. His matchup isn’t nearly as friendly as last night’s vs. the Kings – it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.85 – but Irving owns a Bargain Rating of 97% on DraftKings.

Ja Morant and Hamidou Diallo are tied for the lead at point guard with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and both players have plenty of merits tonight. Morant owns an elite matchup vs. the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17, while Diallo will benefit from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Theo Maledon being out of the lineup. Both players also stand out as excellent values, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 78%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden racked up another triple-double last night. He finished with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 14 assists over 34.5 minutes, resulting in 61.6 FanDuel points. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.84 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, so he’s been one of the better values in the league recently.

Harden has another chance for a big game tonight vs. the Suns. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.9% in games without Durant since joining the Nets, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. Harden has also played a ton of minutes with Brooklyn, averaging 38.5 minutes per game.

Value

Eric Bledsoe has been priced down to just $4,800 on FanDuel, which is about as low as he’s ever been priced. The price decrease is warranted – he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.38 over his past 10 games on FanDuel – but he still seems like a nice buy-low target. He’s still playing around 30 minutes on most nights, and he’s averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Fast Break

Fred VanVleet stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and he leads all SGs with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He should also continue to benefit from the Raptors’ current injury situation. OG Anunoby is listed as doubtful, and VanVleet has increased his usage rate by +1.6% with Anunoby off the court this season.

Jaylen Brown is one of the better values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%, and the Celtics could be a bit thin tonight. Marcus Smart remains out of the lineup, and Daniel Theis is listed as questionable. Kemba Walker is also a rest candidate on the front end of a back-to-back. If Walker ultimately gets ruled out, Brown will become one of the best plays on the slate.

Make sure to monitor the Celtics’ injury situation using the Labs Insiders tool.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James figures to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. Anthony Davis is out until at least the All-Star break with an Achilles injury, and LeBron should see a boost in value in his absence. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.8% with Davis off the court this season, so he has the potential to improve on his average of 1.47 DraftKings points per minute.

LeBron also takes the court in a solid spot vs. the Timberwolves. They haven’t been as bad defensively since getting Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup, but they still rank just 21st in defensive efficiency.

Value

Michael Porter Jr. is one of the top options on the slate. He’s a very gifted scorer, and he’s averaged a strong 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season. His poor defense has kept him off the court at times, but the Nuggets are going to have no choice but to play him big minutes on Tuesday. Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Paul Millsap have all been ruled out, and Monte Morris is listed as questionable. Porter is currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and it’s hard to imagine him busting with that much playing time.

Fast Break

Khris Middleton has slowed down a bit after a torrid start to the season, which has caused his price to drop to just $7,500 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 80%, and Middleton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 with a comparable salary this season. The Bucks’ implied team total of 120.5 is also the top mark on the slate.

Derrick Jones Jr. has dual SF/PF eligibility on DraftKings, which is where he carries the most value tonight. He’s priced at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he should see all the minutes he can handle vs. the Thunder. The Blazers played just nine guys in their last contest, and one of those players (Giles) has already been ruled out. That leaves Jones Jr., Robert Covington, and Carmelo Anthony to handle most of the forward minutes.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is officially back. Technically he never went anywhere, but he’s looked more like an elite fantasy player recently than he did at the beginning of the year. He’s scored at least 65.0 FanDuel points in four of his past six games – including each of his past three – which is the type of production we’ve become accustomed to from Giannis.

His per-minute production is still down compared to his ridiculous mark from last year, but he’s made up for it by playing more minutes. He’s averaging three additional minutes per game this season, and he’s played at least 35.9 minutes in each of his past three games. He owns the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models regardless of position, and it’s frankly not that close.

Value

Carmelo Anthony has averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he played approximately 31.5 minutes in the Blazers’ last game. He figures to see at least that much playing time tonight with Giles now out of the lineup as well, so he’s simply too cheap at $5,300 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Jayson Tatum is Celtic who’s underpriced on DraftKings. His $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, which obviously puts him in play vs. the Nuggets. Like Brown, he would also benefit if Walker and/or Theis is ruled out.

JaMychal Green should see a boost in playing time with Millsap out of the lineup vs. the Celtics. He’s currently projected for 28.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a viable option at $4,400 on FanDuel. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.61 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

Center

Stud

Sticking with the Nuggets, it’s hard to argue against Nikola Jokic on today’s slate. He’s been one of the top producers in fantasy this season, averaging 1.59 FanDuel points per minute, and he should see a huge workload tonight vs. the Celtics. He’s currently projected for 38.3 minutes, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. Jokic can obviously do a lot of damage with that much playing time. The Celtics are also a decent matchup for centers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.42 on FanDuel.

Value

Enes Kanter is a bit more expensive than the typical value option, but he’s undoubtedly one of the best values at the position on FanDuel. His $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%, which is the top mark at the position. He also owns one of the best opponent marks in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus at +2.39 vs. Thunder.

Fast Break

DeAndre Jordan has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings, and he’s seen a nice spike in playing time recently. He’s logged 36.6 and 27.1 minutes in each of his past two games, and he should continue to see a few additional minutes for as long as Durant is out of the lineup. He stands out as an elite value option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Al Horford may not be able to handle a ton of minutes anymore, but he’s still capable of serving as the focal point of an offense. He’s been forced into that role recently given all the Thunder’s injuries, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +12.19 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s been priced up a bit across the industry, but he’s still too cheap given his elite per-minute production with SGA, Maledon, and George Hill out of the lineup.