The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is officially back to being a fantasy stud. His production dipped to “just” 49.83 DraftKings points per game in his only season with the Rockets, but he’s scored at least 57.75 DraftKings points in each of his first two games with the Wizards. He’s posted a triple-double in both of those contests, so expect him to continue to fill up the stat sheet with Washington.
He got the night off in the Wizards’ last game, but he should be back in the lineup Tuesday vs. the Bulls. This has the potential to be an excellent matchup, with the Bulls ranking second in pace to start the new season. The Wizards are currently implied for 121.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin.
Value
The Bulls should also provide some value on the other side of that matchup. The total on that game sits at 237.0 points, and no other game has a total above 227.5. Washington has played at the third-fastest pace to start the season, and they rank just 26th in defensive efficiency.
Coby White stands out as a strong target at $5,900 on FanDuel. He’s coming off his best game of the season in his last contest, finishing with 32.9 FanDuel points vs. the Golden State Warriors. He has a solid individual matchup vs. the Wizards given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic is one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s scored at least 37.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he has a chance to be the focal point for the Heat’s offense with Jimmy Butler listed as doubtful. Dragic has increased his usage rate by +4.0% with Butler off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.58 DraftKings points per minute.
The Knicks’ backcourt is pretty thin at the moment. Dennis Smith Jr., Austin Rivers, and Immanuel Quickley have all been ruled out, while Alec Burks is listed as doubtful. That means Elfrid Payton should see plenty of playing time, and he has historically been an excellent fantasy producer on a per-minute basis. He saw 29.3 minutes vs. the Bucks in his last contest and finished with 41.1 FanDuel points. He’s a steal at $4,800 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the potential for a monster season. The Thunder lost Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, and Danilo Gallinari in the offseason, which leaves them without three of their top four scorers from last year’s squad. SGA has unsurprisingly seen an uptick in usage in their absence this season, posting a usage rate of at least 32.3% in each of his first two games.
He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.45 (per the Trends tool).
Value
Seth Curry may not be as good as his brother, but he has still evolved into a solid rotation player in the NBA. He’s scored at least 24.0 FanDuel points in two of his first three games this season, and the lone exception was a blowout where he played just 24.6 minutes. He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should see much more playing time if today’s game vs. the Raptors is more competitive. Curry is also very affordable at just $4,200 on FanDuel, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.06 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine is coming off his best game of the season after scoring 50.9 FanDuel points vs. the Golden State Warriors. He should thrive in this up-tempo matchup vs. the Wizards: He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.07 in 11 previous games with a comparable implied team total.
Tyler Herro is another member of the Heat who would benefit from the absence of Butler. He increased his usage rate by +2.9% with Butler off the court last season, resulting in an average of 0.88 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also playing approximately five additional minutes this season as a starter after coming off the bench for most of his rookie season.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard missed the Clippers’ last game after taking a hellacious shot to the mouth on Christmas vs. the Nuggets, and he’s currently listed as questionable for Tuesday’s contest vs. the Timberwolves. That said, he was able to practice on Monday, so it’s possible he could make his return to the court. It’s a solid spot if he’s able to suit up: The Timberwolves have played at the sixth-fastest pace to start the season. The Clippers are also implied for 118.75 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
If Leonard is ruled out – and the fact that this is the first game of a back-to-back makes that a real possibility – Paul George would become an excellent stud target. Make sure to monitor this situation using the Labs Insiders’ tool.
Value
R.J. Barrett is carrying a monster workload considering his price tag. He played 38.3 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 36.0 minutes in our NBA Models for today’s game vs. the Cavaliers. Barrett has also been extremely active when on the court this season, recording at least 15 shot attempts in each of his first three games. He has the potential to average well over 1.00 FanDuel points per minute if his shot is falling, just like he did when he scored 42.1 FanDuel points vs. the Pacers on opening night.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Knicks, they’ve dusted off Kevin Knox given all their injuries recently, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. He’s currently projected for 26.3 minutes at just $3,600 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.94.
It has been a major struggle for Kelly Oubre in his first three games with the Warriors. He’s shot just 17.5% from the field and 0-17 from 3-point range, which has kept his fantasy production way down. Still, his usage rate of 25.0% would easily be a new career-high so he has excellent upside if his jump shot ever starts falling. He’s also been priced down to just $5,700 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of -$1,400 from his peak. This is a prime buy-low opportunity.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to another fantastic start this season. He’s scored at least 57.25 DraftKings points in two of his first three games, and the lone exception was a blowout win where he played just 26.7 minutes. He’s averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute to start the season, which is the second-highest mark among today’s players.
Giannis is priced up at $11,000 on FanDuel, but don’t let that deter you. He’s owned a comparable salary in 56 games since the start of the 2018 season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.14 in those contests. He remains the premier stud option in all of NBA DFS.
Value
Karl-Anthony Towns has been ruled out for the second straight game, which means Naz Reid will likely draw another start. He was excellent in his first game in place of Towns, scoring 28.0 FanDuel points in just 27.8 minutes. He’s in a decent spot vs. the Clippers, who were somewhat vulnerable against opposing big men last season. They’ve also struggled to rebound the ball to start the season, ranking just 24th in team rebound rate.
Fast Break
Marvin Bagley has led the Kings in usage to start the season, so it feels like he’s on the verge of a breakout. He’s struggled from the field through his first three games, shooting just 39.5%, yet he’s still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in two of his first three games. He has excellent upside if he starts making more shots.
Zion Williamson doesn’t appear to have any minute restrictions this season, which is great news for fantasy players. He’s attempted at least 20 shots at back-to-back games, and he’s also capable of racking up peripherals. He’s recorded double-digit rebounds in all three games this season, and he recorded five steals in his last outing. Williamson is underpriced at just $8,100 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been absolute balling to start the year. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.8% in all three contests, and he’s responded with at least 57.0 DraftKings points in his past two games. That includes a blowout win over the 76ers where he played just 25.7 minutes. Overall, he’s averaged a stout 1.64 DraftKings points per minute through his first three games, which puts him on par with some of the best fantasy producers in basketball.
He’s in an elite spot tonight vs. the Knicks, who have been destroyed on the interior to start the season. No team in basketball has allowed more points per game in the paint, and they also rank just 25th in team rebound rate. That could spell disaster against Drummond.
Value
Thomas Bryant stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%. He’s coming off his best game of the season in his last outing, and he’s a very affordable way to get exposure to the Wizards’ slate-high implied team total.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo is another member of the Heat who would benefit from the absence of Butler. He’s seen a team-high usage boost of +5.5% with Butler off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.53 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the center position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings.
Deandre Ayton is an interesting low-owned target for tournaments. His minutes have been down to start the season, which has caused his salary to drop to just $7,100 on FanDuel. That’s simply too cheap for a player of Ayton’s caliber, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.53 with a comparable price tag.
