NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, Aug. 4): Kelly Olynyk Is a Massive Value

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Make sure to monitor the status for all the Bucks’ starters and all injuries prior to tip-off using the new Labs Insiders tool.

Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic has been fantastic during the restart. He’s scored at least 64.25 DraftKings points in each of his first two games, and he’s filled up the stat sheet in the way we’ve become accustomed to with Doncic. He posted a triple-double in his first contest and was just two rebounds shy of a triple-double in his second.

Both of those games were fast-paced affairs, and today’s matchup vs. the Kings should be no different. The total on this game current sits at 237 points, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 121.5 ranks second on the slate. Doncic has historically crushed in seven games with an implied team total of at least 118 points, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.16 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

Value

Malcolm Brogdon stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings. Brogdon missed the Pacers first game in the bubble with an injury, but he returned to the lineup Monday vs. the Wizards. He didn’t appear to be limited in that contest, racking up 20 points, seven rebounds, and six assists over 35 minutes.

As long as he’s good to go on the second leg of a back-to-back, he’s simply too cheap at just $5,400. Brogdon has averaged more than 43 DraftKings points per game this season, and he’s done that in an average of just 30.7 minutes per game.

Fast Break

Reggie Jackson stands out as a strong option on FanDuel at just $4,300. He could lose a few minutes if Lou Williams returns to the lineup – he’s currently questionable – but Landry Shamet should be the biggest loser in that situation. Jackson has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute as a member of the Clippers, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his salary.

Ricky Rubio has a tough matchup vs. the Clippers, but he still has some appeal at $6,700 on DraftKings. Rubio has crushed with a comparable price tag this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.00.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden headlines the SG position in what is expected to be the best game of the day from a fantasy perspective. The Rockets and Blazers have both been offensive juggernauts inside the bubble, so the total on this game sits at a whopping 244 points. The Rockets are also four-point favorites, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 124 points.

Eric Gordon also remains out with an ankle injury, which gives Harden even more upside than usual. He’s played 11 games with Gordon and Clint Capela out of the lineup this season, and he’s averaged 59.97 DraftKings points per game in those contests.

Value

The Kings need a win today to avoid falling any further behind the playoff race. They’re currently sitting in 12th place in the Western Conference, so they’ll need to jump at least three teams just to have a shot at forcing a play-in.

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been vital to the Kings success this season, and he’s been a pretty solid fantasy option as well. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s logged at least 31 minutes in each of his first two games in Orlando. That combination should make him a nice value at just $5,100 on FanDuel, especially in a strong spot vs. the Mavericks.

Fast Break

How in the world do you approach the game between the Nets and the Bucks today? The Nets already had arguably the worst roster in the bubble, and now they’ll be without Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, and Jarrett Allen. The spread opened overnight at Bucks -17.5.

That said, the Nets still have to field a roster, so expect Garrett Temple to play a bunch of minutes in the backcourt. He’s averaged a respectable 0.74 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has some upside at just $3,700 on FanDuel.

C.J. McCollum is an interesting way to get exposure to the Blazers today. Most people will likely target guys like Damian Lillard or Jusuf Nurkic, so McCollum could fly a bit under-the-radar at $7,300 on DraftKings. McCollum has also historically been a solid investment with a comparable price tag and an implied team total of at least 115 points, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.50.

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a very tough player to roster today. There’s a chance he might not even play. The Bucks have all but clinched the top record in the Eastern Conference, and they could probably win this game with their backups.

Even if Giannis does play, there’s no guarantee that he’ll see his full complement of minutes. If the Bucks do play their starters, they’ll close as a massive favorite. Giannis has been a favorite of at least 15 six previous times, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.30 in those contests. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of just 33%, which obviously makes him way too risky for cash games.

That said, all that risk might actually increase his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s posted an average ownership of just 6.6% in those previous six games as a favorite of at least 15 points, and he still owns one of the top ceiling projections in our NBA Models.

Value

Cam Johnson is a very interesting option for the Suns at just $4,500 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings. He actually led the Suns in minutes in their last game, and he’s been spending the majority of his minutes at the PF position. That gives him extra upside on the boards, which he demonstrated with 12 rebounds on Sunday vs. the Mavericks.

Johnson is also very capable of knocking down open 3-pointers. He’s shot 40% from behind the arc during his rookie season, so he has the ability to score the ball as well.

Fast Break

Justin Holiday is dirt cheap at just $3,700 on FanDuel despite the fact that he’s playing heavy minutes for the Pacers. He’s coming off 35 minutes yesterday vs. the Wizards, and he should see a similar workload with Domantas Sabonis out of the lineup. Historically, players with a comparable salary have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.80 when projected for at least 30 minutes.

Sticking with the Pacers, T.J. Warren has been absolutely on fire to start the seeding games. He dropped 53 points in his first game and followed that up with 34 points in his second game.

With that in mind, why did his salary drop to just $6,400 on FanDuel for today’s contest vs. the Magic? It’s obviously a tougher matchup than the Wizards, but Warren has crushed his price tag in each of his past two games.

Power Forward

Stud

It didn’t take Jayson Tatum long to snap out of his funk. He struggled mightily vs. the Bucks in his first game – shooting just 2-18 from the field – but he responded with 58.5 DraftKings points in his last game.

So which version of Tatum shows up today vs. the Heat? I’m expecting something closer to his second performance. Tatum put together a really impressive stretch of basketball just prior to the shutdown, averaging 48.48 FanDuel points per game over his final nine contests, so $8,100 is a very fair price for him.

Value

Kelly Olynyk stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings regardless of position. He’s priced at just $3,800, despite the fact that he’s been lighting it up in Orlando. He’s also coming off 31 minutes in his last game, so he has a solid floor and ceiling projection for his salary.

Fast Break

Richaun Holmes is another member of the Kings I’m interested in today. He’s been excellent when on the court this season, averaging over 1.00 FanDuel points per minute, so he has nice upside at just $4,900 on FanDuel.

Nurkic isn’t the only big man that the Blazers added before the bubble. They also got back Zach Collins, who has stepped right into a big role. He’s logged 36.8 and 27.4 minutes in his first two games, which makes him a reasonable target at $4,300 on DraftKings.

Center

Stud

Nurkic has wasted no time making an impact for the Blazers. His average stat line from his first two games is ridiculous – 24.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.5 blocks, 2.0 steals – resulting in an average of 55.8 FanDuel points per game. It was unclear how the Blazers would handle the minutes for Nurkic, Collins, and Hassan Whiteside, but coach Terry Stotts made the (correct) decision to relegate Whiteside to backup duty.

Nurkic should have his way on the interior vs. an undersized Rockets’ squad. The Rockets have managed to win each of their first two games in the bubble, but they have been a fantasy goldmine for talented big men. Kristaps Porzingis exploded for 70.0 DraftKings points vs. the Rockets, and Giannis logged 73.75 DraftKings points in the following game. Nurkic might not be as skilled as those guys, but he should be able to do some serious damage in this matchup.

Value

Brook Lopez revenge game? Why not! The Nets have been a disaster against opposing big men for much of the season, and now they’ll have to compete without Allen and DeAndre Jordan in their lineup. Lopez has also been playing well in the bubble, logging 33.0 and 46.0 DraftKings points over his first two games.

Fast Break

Speaking of Porzingis, he’s definitely in play today vs. the Kings. He started the season playing limited minutes, but the coaching staff decided to unleash him just before the shutdown. Overall, he’s averaged 26.3 points, 11 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.4 blocks per game over his past 17 contests. He’s been priced up to $9,000 on DraftKings, but you could make the case that’s still not expensive enough.