NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, April 20): Don’t Sleep on De’Aaron Fox

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. Using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models tool, here’s a breakdown of the top DFS plays for each position on tonight’s slate.

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Point Guard

Stud

Kyrie Irving is going to get his chance to be the man for the Nets on Tuesday. Kevin Durant and James Harden are both out of the lineup, which leaves Irving to run the offense.

Irving’s usage rate has increased by 4.2% and his assist rate has increased by 17.4% with Durant and Harden off the court since Harden was acquired from the Rockets. During those situations running the show solo, Irving has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute. Furthermore, Irving has averaged just under 50 DraftKings points in three full games without Durant and Harden on the court.

Irving is in a dream spot tonight vs. the Pelicans, who have been an absolute disaster defensively. Irving boasts an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43, which is the top mark at the position tonight.

Value

Delon Wright is coming off back-to-back games with at least 28.25 DraftKings points, and he’s simply too cheap at $4,100. As a result, Wright earns a Bargain Rating of 98% in an elite matchup vs. the Timberwolves. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Kings’ implied team total of 120.75 is the top mark on the slate.

Fast Break

Chasson Randle is another potential source of value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,200, but he is projected for 24.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Randle isn’t a great producer on a per-minute basis, but players with comparable salaries and minutes projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70 (per the Trends tool).

R.J. Hampton is the preferred punt play for the Magic on FanDuel. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, and he led the bench unit in minutes in their last game.

De’Aaron Fox is more expensive than Irving on FanDuel, which could result in depressed ownership due to Irving’s advantageous situational spot. However, overlooking Fox would be a mistake. He has scored at least 47.3 FanDuel points in six of his past seven games, and he has increased his production to 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Furthermore, Fox is also projected for the most minutes at the position on today’s slate.

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Shooting Guard

Stud

The Blazers have a tough matchup today vs. the Clippers. Nonetheless, Portland will be playing shorthanded, which should provide some fantasy value to offset that matchup difficulty. Point guard Damian Lillard has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury, while Jusuf Nurkic will rest on the front end of a back-to-back.

C.J. McCollum will be asked to take on a larger workload in Lillard’s and Nurkic’s absences. McCollum has increased his usage rate by 4.9% and has increased his assist rate by 3.7% with both players off the court this season. His fantasy output of 1.07 FanDuel points per minute is a bit disappointing in that situation, but he’s posted some dreadful shooting numbers. He has the upside for a much bigger performance vs. the Clippers, and his $8,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

Value

Reggie Bullock hit some huge shots for the Knicks in their win over the Pelicans on Sunday. He has played at least 35.1 minutes in each of his past three games and should be looking at another large workload on Tuesday with Alec Burks out of the lineup. On top of that, Bullock’s $3,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.

Fast Break

Tyrese Haliburton’s play has dropped off recently, and his minutes have followed suit: He only played 15.9 minutes in his last game. It’s possible that he’s hit the rookie wall, but it’s too soon to write him off in a great matchup vs. the Pelicans. Haliburton’s salary has dipped to just $5,200 on FanDuel, and he has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.62 with a comparable salary this season.

Landry Shamet seemingly came out of nowhere to post 40.0 DraftKings points in 37.5 minutes of action last game. He likely will not see that much playing time today, but he should still see a fair share of minutes for the shorthanded Nets. In addition to Durant and Harden, Nic Claxton, Tyler Johnson, and Reggie Perry are also out of the lineup on Tuesday.

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Small Forward

Stud

Norman Powell is cheaper than the prototypical “stud” target, but he has the potential to provide “stud”-like production on Tuesday. He has played at least 38.1 minutes in three consecutive games, and that workload should not decline on Tuesday with Lillard and Nurkic out of the lineup. Additionally, Powell has increased his usage rate by 2.0% with both players off the court since arriving in Portland, which gives him more upside than usual.

Value

Bruce Brown has thrived when given the opportunity to play big minutes this season, which is not surprising given his average of 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He is projected for 30.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and Brown has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.42 with a comparable minutes projection this season. Brown has averaged just under 25 DraftKings points per game in four games without Harden and Durant, which makes him a nice target at $4,900.

Fast Break

Joe Harris is the preferred option for the Nets on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 88%, which is the top mark among tonight’s small forwards. He has also increased his production to 0.88 FanDuel points per minute with Harden and Durant off the court.

Kawhi Leonard stands out as an interesting contrarian target on DraftKings. He should garner minimal ownership on Tuesday, but his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. Leonard played just 22.8 minutes in his last game after missing the previous two contests, but he is projected for 34.9 minutes in a great matchup vs. the Blazers. If he sees that much playing time, he has the potential to be a GPP-winner.

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Power Forward

Stud

Zion Williamson has been on an absolute tear recently. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 49.5 DraftKings points in four of his past six games. He’s also in an excellent spot tonight vs. the Nets. They don’t have anyone who can guard him, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks second on the slate.

Value

P.J. Washington returned to the Hornets’ lineup in their last game, and he stepped right back into his usual workload. He played more than 34 minutes and racked up 45.0 DraftKings points. Washington has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with that much playing time. He stands out as one of the best pure values on the slate on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

Julius Randle has had a monster season for the Knicks, and he’s a big reason why they’re currently sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. He’s played some of his best basketball recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, and he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on today’s slate.

Harrison Barnes has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.14 over his past 10 games, and he’s carried an immense workload for the Kings recently. He’s played at least 39.5 minutes in four of his past six games. Importantly, no one at the position is projected for more minutes on today’s slate.

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Center

Stud

Enes Kanter should see a boost in playing time tonight with Nurkic out of the lineup, and Kanter is always a viable option with additional minutes. He’s one of the best producers at the position on a per-minute basis, and he’s increased his production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.

Value

The Nets have been searching for center options all season, but their depth has taken a serious hit recently. Claxton is out of the lineup on Tuesday, and LaMarcus Aldridge retired unexpectedly. That leaves DeAndre Jordan to handle a solid handful of minutes vs. the Pelicans. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has nice upside for his salary at just $3,900.

Fast Break

Hassan Whiteside has seen a boost in playing time with Richaun Holmes out of the lineup recently. He’s still not playing a ton of minutes — he’s currently projected for 23.8 minutes in our NBA Models — but that’s more than enough for Whiteside to have fantasy relevance. He’s averaged a stout 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s one of the most productive centers in basketball on a per-minute basis.

Wendell Carter Jr. has gotten more opportunities since being traded to the Magic, and he’s responded nicely. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.02 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, and he remains affordable at $6,400 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Hawks. It’s a decent matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.67, and his 10 Pro Trends tie him with Kanter for the top mark at the position.

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Pictured above: De’Aaron Fox #5 of the Sacramento Kings.
Photo credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images.