The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note that there are three early games today for the holiday, but we’re playing the main slate with just the four evening games. There are a ton of questionable players tonight, so you’ll need to watch injury reports and set your lineup late once news comes in.
Point Guard
Studs
Luka Doncic is currently probable with back and wrist injuries. He is not living up to expectations lately, falling short of his implied point total in six of his last eight games. Of course, it’s hard to live up to the expectations of a 30-point triple-double every night at age 20, but it’s an unforgiving world and we need results. It doesn’t help that Doncic is playing through injuries.
Our model is fading Luka at DraftKings with a negative Projected Plus/Minus, but he has 11 Pro Trends and a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel with a +3.9 Projected Plus/Minus. Doncic is more of a gamble lately but always has tournament-winning upside, so he could be a smart gamble on a small slate at FanDuel if he looks like a go.
Value
Kyle Lowry is carrying a huge load right now with co-stars Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol sidelined, and that should continue against the Cavs. Lowry’s thumb injury is a thing of the past, and he’s played at least 37 minutes in nine straight games with at least 20 points in all but one of those. Lowry is $1,000 cheaper at FanDuel, so he has a sparkling 99% Bargain Rating there and an ungodly +9.65 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s a great play at both sites.
Fast Break
Speaking of veteran point guards, Chris Paul is quietly having a terrific season. CP3 has exceeded expectations in 64% of his games this month and is averaging 19.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists the second half of December. Add in a plus matchup with a positive pace differential, and he should be a very solid play again.
D’Angelo Russell has already been ruled out, so Ky Bowman should be a heavy usage point guard play if he gets the start. Bowman has been inconsistent, but in eight games with at least 30 minutes, he’s averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists, and he’s playing for just above the minimum at both sites. Our model projects him at 22.5 minutes and puts him over a +2.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites anyway, so if he gets even bigger minutes, he’ll be one of the night’s top plays.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden plans to play tonight despite a toe injury. Our models aren’t loving him, even projecting him with a full 36-minute load and 38.3% usage. Harden’s massive salary means he has to score over 52 fantasy points just to equal his salary, and the injury could limit the killer upside from there.
Harden has a -2.04 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, so if you do want to play him, DraftKings is the way to go at +1.38. And it should go without saying, but if Harden does sit again, you should obviously get Russell Westbrook into your lineup at all costs.
Value
Our computers don’t think much of the young Cavs guards as defenders, so how about another Raptors guard in Fred VanVleet? FVV continues his breakout season with 18.2 points and 6.9 dimes a game, and his salary still hasn’t caught up. VanVleet has been a bargain all year, exceeding expectations in 75% of his games on the season, including 74% over the past month. At a +5.88 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, he’s the top shooting guard option on the slate.
Fast Break
Damion Lee has been a star lately for the Warriors, going over expectations in eight straight games with 16.0 points and 7.9 rebounds a game in that stretch. Lee is making the most of his opportunity, and the Spurs are another plus matchup. His salary is starting to creep up, but he’s still over a +2.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, and that number will only go up if teammates like Eric Paschall and Bowman are limited.
Speaking of end-of-the-bench Warriors, three-time champion Patrick McCaw could be worth a play tonight. McCaw is a Raptor now, and he’s played 80 minutes the last two games with all the Toronto injuries, racking up 31 points, nine rebounds and 10 dimes combined. McCaw is over a +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, a great bargain play. You might also consider his teammate, Terence Davis. Davis produces more while on the court but is playing fewer minutes.
Small Forward
Studs
Will Barton is the most expensive option available at small forward tonight at FanDuel, and he might also be the best play. Barton continues to fill up the box score with an outstanding season, and he’s exceeded expectations in 63% of his games this year with an average +3.94 Plus/Minus. That’s terrific value, and Barton gets a +2.28 Opponent Plus/Minus with a +6.3 pace differential against Houston, so that should only help his numbers.
Value
Ready for another Warrior? Alec Burks is a good play right now, and he’d be a great one if Bowman is limited. Burks is traditionally just a scorer, but he could have moments at the point, and he’s had some big assist games this season in that scenario. The Warriors just need bodies out there, and Burks is a pro’s pro. He’s over a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, though you’ll have to play him at one of the guard spots at DraftKings.
Fast Break
Oh hey, another Warrior! Glenn Robinson is over expectations in seven of 10 games, with an average +3.72 Plus/Minus over that stretch. Robinson is playing big minutes and projected at 32.3 again tonight, and he has the same case as the other Warriors — a positive matchup and someone’s gotta get shots and boards.
Danilo Gallinari is a more traditional option, but he’s also questionable with an ankle injury and has missed four straight games. Our models give Gallo a Projected Plus/Minus over +2.5 at both sites, but they also project him over 30 minutes, so be careful. If Gallinari sits again, Darius Bazley should be a useful fill-in as his replacement.
Power Forward
Studs
Kristaps Porzingis and LaMarcus Aldridge are twin stud options atop the power forward listings today, and our models do not really love either option. Porzingis is below a -1 Projected Plus/Minus even in a plus matchup against Oklahoma City. Aldridge is a negative, too, though only slightly, and he has a +5.33 Opponent Plus/Minus boost against the Warriors’ porous defense.
Aldridge has exceeded his implied point total in 70% of his games this season, so he may not be a terrible play even at somewhat neutral value, given how light the slate is. For Porzingis, it’s all about Doncic. If Luka’s out, KP is a play in an alpha role with increased usage. With Doncic projected to play, Porzingis is a fade. You may want to avoid both with the great bargain options at the position.
Value
Marquese Chriss is yet another bargain Warrior, and he might be the best among them. Golden State is missing both Willie Cauley-Stein and Kevon Looney tonight, so Chriss should play big minutes for only about $4,000. Our models have him at 25.8 minutes and rates him over a +8.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, a top three Projected Plus/Minus among all players.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant gets the start with Paul Millsap out, and he’s in a great spot against Houston with a +2.85 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +6.3 pace differential that could increase further if Harden sits. Grant has struggled to fit in at Denver but has stepped up his production with Millsap out, and he looks like a slam dunk bargain play at both sites with a +8.14 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Serge Ibaka is another guy taking advantage of increased opportunity with Siakam and Gasol out. It’s a good matchup against Cleveland’s +2.1 Opponent Plus/Minus, and Ibaka is projected to play 31.8 minutes. Ibaka is a good play at both sites, but even better at FanDuel with his +7.08 Projected Plus/Minus.
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic headlines a super light center slate, with only seven options at FanDuel. And for once, you might actually want to play him! You have to spend money somewhere after all, and there just aren’t many stud options available tonight. Jokic has a great matchup against Houston, and he’s another Nugget who will see boosted value in that matchup with the increased pace.
Jokic has finally gotten things going in December, exceeding expectations in 10 of his last 13 and boosting his season average of 1.36 fantasy points per minute to 1.46 this month. Jokic comes with 13 Pro Trends and is one of the easiest lineup decisions you’ll make tonight.
Value
Steven Adams is a strong alternate, at least at FanDuel with his 81% Bargain Rating. Adams has exceeded expectations in 68% of his games this month with a monster +5.83 Plus/Minus as the Thunder close out a huge December. He can’t match Jokic’s ceiling outcome, but he’s a very strong middle option.
Fast Break
Jakob Poeltl has a wonderful matchup against the Warriors, whose +3.64 Opponent Plus/Minus probably undersells the matchup with Cauley-Stein and Looney out and Chriss in their place. Poeltl probably isn’t going to put up a huge number, but he should beat his implied score easily and is over a +2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Clint Capela is questionable with a heel injury, though he’s expected to play. He’s an interesting pivot, since he probably won’t be in as many lineups but also gets a huge +5.03 Opponent Plus/Minus against Denver. Our models like Capela enough, though not as much as the other options here. If Capela does sit, Isaiah Hartenstein has been an awesome fill-in in his stead.
