The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Remember Trae Young? Poor Atlanta finally gets Trae back just in time for the news that John Collins has been suspended 25 games for violating the Anti-Drug Policy. Young was lighting it up before his injury, averaging 34 points and nine assists a game and flashing tournament-winning upside.
Young might be your biggest decision on the slate Tuesday. Do you trust him to be back playing a full minutes load after the injury? Will the numbers hold up without Collins, or maybe even take a jump with more scoring volume? Young has the highest point guard Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, but there are a lot of ways this could go wrong today.
You’ve got two other similarly priced stud options today. Kemba Walker has outperformed our projections in four straight games and should continue to see an increased scoring load with Jaylen Brown and Enes Kanter likely out. Kemba has scored 32 or more points in three straight and is a safer play than Young, though without the huge upside.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics guard Kemba Walker (8).
Malcolm Brogdon has quickly moved into stud territory at 22.5 points and 9.7 assists a game. He’s the cheapest of the three options on DraftKings at $8,200 and comes with a 78% Bargain Rating, so he looks like a strong play there.
Value
If you’re staying away from all three top dollar point guard options, Chicago’s Tomas Satoransky looks like a cheap, steady alternative. Sato has yet to score double-digit points this season or clear 30 FanDuel points, so you’re not getting any upside at all here, but he’s super cheap at $4,600 on FanDuel and he has our third-best Projected Plus/Minus among point guards.
Fast Break
Markelle Fultz has been quite the reclamation project in Orlando. Fultz has a +3.74 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and costs only $4,000 there, so he comes in at a 75% Bargain Rating. Fultz benefits from a tasty matchup against Oklahoma City, which has our best Opponent Plus/Minus rating for point guards today at +2.97.
Shooting Guard
Studs
We’re still getting a feel for what Jimmy Butler will look like in a Heat uniform. Butler has posted inconsistent numbers in his three games. He scored 18 and 21 points in two of the games but just five in the other. He had nine and 11-assist games, but only two dimes in his debut. The steals have been a lovely surprise bonus: 13 in just three games. You’re left with Butler averaging 14.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 4.3 steals — good, LeBron-lite numbers but volatile from game to game.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22).
Pay attention to the Justise Winslow injury news. Winslow is questionable with a back injury. When Winslow has been limited or out, Butler has thrived and his assist numbers have spiked. Our models rate Butler as a negative Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a player to avoid until the numbers even out — especially if Winslow plays.
Value
Marcus Smart has by far our highest Projected Plus/Minus among FanDuel shooting guards at +5.56. He benefits from many of the same reasons as Kemba Walker above, if you need a cheaper Celtics option. Smart should see a minutes increase with Jaylen Brown out, and he has the top shooting guard Opponent Plus/Minus rating at +1.39. Smart is the only shooting guard on FanDuel projected over five points per $1000 salary, so he’s a strong option at $5,600.
Fast Break
Jeremy Lamb has our top DraftKings Projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards at +5.15. Lamb has seen his numbers tick up to 19 points and almost eight rebounds a game over his last three outings. He’s seeing a volume boost with all the Pacers’ injuries. Myles Turner and Victor Oladipo will be out again, but pay attention to Domantas Sabonis and Doug McDermott, both questionable. If either or both are out again, that should help Lamb.
Lamb has dual position availability on DraftKings, and you can also slide in Brogdon or Fultz. One other dual-position name is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His FanDuel price has gotten a bit steep, but he’s still an 89% Bargain Rating at DraftKings at just $7,000 for his 21.8 points and 7.2 rebounds a game amidst a breakout sophomore season.
Small Forward
Studs
It’ll be tough to keep LeBron James out of your lineup tonight with so few high-priced stud options, especially at his insane $9,600 salary on DraftKings. That gives LeBron a 95% Bargain Rating and an outlandish +9.76 Projected Plus/Minus, the highest of any player on the slate by a wide margin. James has recorded back-to-back triple-doubles, and you already know he has tournament-winning upside if he explodes again.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23).
LeBron is not quite the slam dunk on FanDuel, where his price tag is a more understandable $11,700. That’s almost $5,000 more than any other SF option on the slate. If you’re playing both sites, you should think about a LeBron lineup on DraftKings while fading him for another stud option on FanDuel.
Value
One good alternate option at small forward may be Gordon Hayward. Noticing a trend? You’re going to want to get a Celtic into your lineup with so much extra offense available while Brown and Kanter are out. Hayward is finally starting to look healthy again at 18.6 points a game, and he’s had 11 combined assists his last two games. He has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus among small forwards at both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has our top Projected Plus/Minus at +3.3 on FanDuel. He has a limited ceiling but has outplayed our projections in five of six games this season. He’s a set-it-and-forget-it option at $4,900.
Otto Porter is probable to return from his ankle injury. He’s really posted inconsistent numbers this season while getting healthy, but he’s at his lowest price tag of the season at $5,200 on FanDuel and only $4,300 on DraftKings. That bargain price gives him a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, and he has more of a ceiling than most cheap options, though a lower floor too.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis comes home to Chicago and finds a pretty juicy matchup against the Bulls, the best Opponent Plus/Minus available on today’s slate. Davis is a lot like LeBron. He’s an excellent option at DraftKings, a relative bargain at only $10,000 even. Davis has a 93% Bargain Rating and a beautiful +6.59 Projected Plus/Minus. Davis can always have a monster game, and he could be a tournament-winning swerve on DraftKings if you decide to fade LeBron.
You may want to fade both on FanDuel. The Brow costs $11,900 and rates as an average play at best because of the price tag, even with his big upside.
Value
Anyone paying attention is going to give Jabari Parker a long look today. Parker looks like the most obvious immediate beneficiary of the John Collins suspension, especially since that news came out after today’s prices were set. We’re projecting Jabari at 27.6 minutes, and Parker has always produced when he can actually stay on the court.
Parker is a top option at FanDuel with a +8.1 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s coming off his best game of the season at 23 points and eight boards and could have unusually high upside for a $4,800 player with Collins out so suddenly.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge should also benefit some from the Collins suspension. Not that Collins is much of a defender, but Parker is even worse. LMA is only $6,800 on DraftKings and comes with an 81% Bargain Rating. He’s coming off a rough week, but a game against the Hawks could be just what the doctor ordered.
Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge
Rookie P.J. Washington has quickly established himself as one of Charlotte’s best players, and he should benefit from all the Indiana interior injuries. He has our third best PF Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel at +3.86.
Center
Studs
It’s been an absolutely nightmarish start to the season for Nikola Jokic, who looks out of shape and out of sorts. Jokic has fallen short of our projections in all but one game this season, and he typically takes awhile to snap out of a funk like this.
This might not be the night for Jokic to break out either. Miami has played up tempo, and Bam Adebayo could be a tough matchup for Jokic. Our models have Jokic as a -2.06 Projected Plus/Minus and a definite avoid at DraftKings. At FanDuel, he’s at a season low $9,200 and a bit more of a bargain if you think this is his breakout game. He’s still expensive enough that he’s an all-or-nothing play.
Value
Alex Len has our top Projected Plus/Minus among FanDuel centers at +2.85. Len is probable with a rib contusion, and he comes as a bit of a bargain because of his slow start that’s limited his minutes. The Hawks will want to give him as many minutes as he can handle against a big Spurs lineup, especially now that John Collins is out of Atlanta’s lineup.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard was the talk of the weekend after looking so good against the Spurs. His price tag has gone way up, but he has a delicious matchup against a Bulls team that’s practically giving out points to opposing centers. Howard’s increased price tag should make him a low-ownership option, but he could have another big game.
Robert Williams is probable with a hip injury, and he could see a minutes boost with Kanter out. Williams has a 71% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at just $3,900 and could be a good play if you think he’ll stay on the court long enough. If you need an alternate option on DraftKings, many of our power forward options today are eligible at center too.
Pictured above: Atlanta Hawks forward Jabari Parker (5)
Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
