The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Good luck finding a reason to not play Luka Doncic. Luka would be popular on any slate, but you know he’ll be in a ton of lineups with only two games available. If you want to fade Luka, you’re doing so on the narrative that the Clippers will throw Kawhi Leonard and Paul George at him all game and stifle the poor kid (how is this guy 20?!) giving him a little dose of reality. You probably want to go Clippers heavy if that’s your lean.
It’s probably wise to go the other direction as hot as Doncic and the Mavericks have been. He is averaging 1.69 FanDuel points per minute. No other point guard on the slate is above 1.06. Doncic has a massive price tag at $12,500 at FanDuel, but might still be worth the play on today’s slate. He’s a much easier choice at $11,400 on DraftKings, where he gets a massive +4.89 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
On a light slate, Ish Smith may be a bargain play if you’re paying up at other positions.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards guard Ish Smith (14).
Smith has exceeded expectations in four straight and is averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists over his last three games. His producing is nearly equal to Isaiah Thomas, but he’s much cheaper.
Fast Break
If you’d like to gamble on Nuggets guards, today is a good day to try your luck against the worst defense in the league. Jamal Murray has a +1.81 Opponent Plus/Minus and has outperformed expectations in eight of his last 10 games, with both his scoring and assist numbers up. Murray comes with 10 Pro Trends, just as many as Doncic, and is a quality pivot from him.
Patrick Beverley is your other starter. Beverley has a +1.74 Projected Plus/Minus and an 85% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, but he looks a player to avoid at FanDuel, even in a plus matchup.
Shooting Guard
Studs
You’re probably pretty excited about Bradley Beal. You’ve likely also noticed the Wizards are one of the highest scoring teams in the league, and that Nuggets matchup looks pretty tasty. But the truth is that the Nuggets have played quality defense. Gary Harris is even starting to get some All-Defense buzz, and Beal has a -0.68 Opponent Plus/Mins.
Even still, Beal has our model’s top Projected Plus/Minus at +2.61 on FanDuel, though that’s a pretty low number for top PPM of the day. Beal also comes with 13 Pro Trends and looks worth the price of admission.
Value
Gary Harris is another Denver guard option, and you’d probably be wise to get at least one of the Nuggets guards into your lineup in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets guard Gary Harris (14).
Harris has gone ice cold on offense and hasn’t scored more than 13 points since October, but that’s given him a bargain salary and one of the slate’s best Projected Plus/Minus. If he finally breaks out against that weak Wizards defense, he could be tournament winner.
Fast Break
Lou Williams is another potential tournament winner. He’s due for a monster game every couple weeks and hasn’t had one since … hey look at that, about 12 days ago! At 1.07 FanDuel points per minute, Williams is the second most proficient fantasy scorer on the slate at shooting guard.
Jordan McRae is one of today’s best bargains. McRae has been a spark off the bench for the Wizards, scoring 25 points in 44 minutes over the past two games. He’s still just barely above the minimum salary, and that gives him a Projected Plus/Minus over 2 at both sites.
Small Forward
Studs
It sure seems like Paul George has settled right in with the Clippers. George is scoring 25 points per game, though his assist and steal numbers have been hit or miss. He has been very consistent as a fantasy player overall so far and scored between 38.9 and 47.7 FanDuel points in all six games this season.
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George (13), New Orleans Pelicans center Jaxson Hayes (10).
That makes George a relatively safe bet but not necessarily a great play. At $9,500 on FanDuel, our model gives George a -3.31 Projected Plus/Minus with a relatively tepid ceiling for a stud. He’s a better option at $8,200 at DraftKings, an 89% Bargain Rating, with a +1.85 Projected Plus/Minus, so if you do want to play him, that’s where to do it.
Value
Will Barton is back to being a reliable fantasy player — maybe the only one on the Nuggets so far this season — but his salary still hasn’t caught up. Barton has exceeded expectations in 70% of his games, can fill up the box score, and he has a great matchup against the Wizards. At +2.75 Projected Plus/Minus, he’s our model’s top small forward option at DraftKings.
Fast Break
Dorian Finney-Smith should get all the minutes he can handle tonight as the Mavericks will need him out there matching up with Leonard and George. Finney-Smith is over 30 FanDuel points in two of his last four games and costs just $4,400 at both sites with a positive Projected Plus/Minus.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is another Dallas option. He can always put up a heap of points if he gets hot, and he’s exceeded fantasy expectations in 80% of his games this season. He’s coming off his best game of the season with 31 points against the Rockets, so he could stay hot.
Power Forward
Studs
If you’d like reason to play Kawhi Leonard tonight, you’ve come to the wrong place. Leonard is under expectations in four of his last five, his numbers probably not coincidentally lacking a bit with the return of a healthy PG. This is a two-stud team now, and Kawhi’s salary hasn’t adjusted downward yet to account for it.
Leonard’s rebounding is way down, and his minutes and assists are down too as he still looks to be struggling a bit with injury. That all takes away most of Leonard’s upside and gives him a grotesque -6.26 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and a -2.4 at DraftKings. Many will blindly play Leonard on a light slate, so that gives you a real option to make some cash tonight fading him for other lineups.
Value
And you might want to fade him for a big time Dallas Mavericks stack. Kristaps Porzingis has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at DraftKings, a whopping +6.11. Porzingis had a slow start in his return from injury, but he’s found his form lately.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6).
KP has exceeded expectations in five of his last six games, scoring 18.9 points and grabbing 11.0 rebounds a game. Those rebounds in particular are way up. Porzingis is more expensive at FanDuel but is still the top Projected Plus/Minus among power forwards there too at +1.81.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap is always a solid, steady option. He comes with nine Pro Trends and has a very welcoming +4.84 Projected Plus/Minus and an 88% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, where he’s a strong play.
JaMychal Green remains a strong bargain option if you’ve spent all your money elsewhere. He’s under $4,000 at both sites with a positive Projected Plus/Minus and has pretty good upside for such a cheap player.
Center
Studs
We’ve been waiting all season for Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets’ offense to break out. He gets another crack tonight in a delicious matchup against the Wizards, who offer a +4.24 Opponent Plus/Minus we can all be thankful for on Thanksgiving week. Jokic has disappointed expectations in 60% of his games this season, including four of his last five, but his rebounding is up lately at 13.7 boards a game over his last three.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15).
Our models like Jokic at his $9,800 DraftKings salary, an 85% Bargain Rating and a +3.77 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s more of a neutral play at FanDuel but is the top center play there with all but one other option below zero Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Center is really tough today, so if you’re playing at DraftKings, you would be wise to use positional eligibility to your advantage and move play someone like Porzingis or Millsap at center. At FanDuel you don’t have that option, so you might choose to try Thomas Bryant. Bryant is a better play at his $5,800 DraftKings salary and subsequent +2.97 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s a -0.23 at FanDuel but comes with a +4.44 Opponent Plus/Minus, so that gives him a great ceiling.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell has gotten more expensive lately, but that’s because he always produces on the court at 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. He has an 81% Bargain Rating there, where he still costs only $6,700. If you are just looking to spend a moderate amount at center and focus elsewhere, he’s become a pretty safe play.
Dwight Powell could be a sneaky bargain option. Maxi Kleber is questionable with a knee contusion. If he’s limited or out, Powell could get extended run. Powell has been ice cold, under expectations in six straight, but he’s a bargain now with a nice matchup.
