The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate has only one real stud at every other position except point guard, where three PGs are among the top-six current highest-rated players in a variety of our Pro models.
Two sophomores lead the way. The first is Luka Doncic. Doncic is looking like an early MVP darkhorse candidate, averaging 29.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. Luka is playing a heavier minutes load this season, up from 32.2 to 36.3 per game, which is giving him more time to produce huge stat lines.
Volume is always king in DFS, and Doncic’s salary has yet to catch up. That gives him value, especially when he’s averaging 1.3 FanDuel points per minute. Doncic looks worth the price of admission at $10,400. He has two of the top player props on the board today, too.
The other standout sophomore is Trae Young. Young has a difficult defensive matchup against the Miami Heat, but he’s so on fire right now he might be worth the play anyway. Trae is over 40% usage so far this season, looking like a Harden-ized version of Steph Curry, slanderous as that may be.
Young has a monster 86% Upside Rating and can explode any given night, so he’s an excellent tournament option. He’s scoring 34 points a game and has had nine assists in all three games. At just $9,400 on FanDuel, Young has a 68% Bargain Rating and looks like one of the top stud plays of the evening.
Value
If you can’t quite afford Doncic or Young, Jamal Murray looks like a good moderately-priced option. Murray has the third-highest rating in one of our cash-game models on DraftKings and comes at a 93% Bargain Rating at just $6,600. Murray gets a big boost playing a Dallas defense that doesn’t offer much opposition to opposing guards.
Fast Break
Monte Morris is a solid play for most of the same reasons as Murray. We project Morris at just 2-4% ownership, so he could be a big leverage play if Murray struggles or gets into foul trouble.
Shooting Guard
Studs
It looks like Jimmy Butler will finally make his Miami Heat debut, and he’s the only thing even remotely resembling a stud SG on FanDuel. If you’re playing DraftKings, you can find a few other stud options with cross-position eligibility.
Our models rate Butler as a good but not great play. We obviously don’t know what he’ll look like in Miami just yet, and that makes every Heat player a bit tricky tonight until we see more. Butler loves to play with a chip on his shoulder and could look to put on a show in front of the home Miami crowd in his debut. Miami has played at one of the league’s fastest paces, and Butler is fresh and playing against an Atlanta team on the second night of a back-to-back.
Value
FanDuel isn’t offering a ton of value at SG, but Gary Harris is one of two players with a Projected Plus/Minus above +1.0. Harris is priced at just $4,900 (88% Bargain Rating) but has that same tasty matchup as Murray and Morris against a Dallas defense that hasn’t done much to slow opposing guards. Harris dropped $600 after a disappointing start to the season, but this could be his chance to get back on track. He could be a popular option at a tough position.
Fast Break
Don’t look now, but Danny Green might be a scorer now, putting up 14.0 points a game. That’s a career-high, and Green is also averaging career-bests in minutes, field goal attempts and 3s per game as the Lakers lean heavily on him as their only reliable wing and knockdown shooter. Green’s DraftKings price is down $800, and he has a 95% Bargain Rating at $4,400.
Dillon Brooks is another option if you need a value play. Brooks played a season-high 38 minutes last night and has quickly become a go-to lineup option for the Grizzlies. He’s expected to have high ownership at $4,700 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Studs
Should you invest in LeBron James on Tuesday night? That might depend on which site you’re using. At DraftKings, LeBron is priced at only $9,700 and comes with a sparkling 99% Bargain Rating at his 1.54 DraftKings points per minute. He currently has one of the higher ratings on DraftKings in our cash model. Over at FanDuel, James comes in at $11,300 with a 1% Bargain Rating.
Rajon Rondo has been ruled out, which is helpful for LeBron’s output. The King has 30 assists in three games so far, and he’s spent a lot of time running point. Against a fast-paced Memphis team, he could have a huge game in a variety of statistical categories.
Value
If you’re on FanDuel and looking to fade LeBron’s huge salary, Will Barton is standing out in our models. Barton gets the same boost as his fellow Nuggets above against a cushy Dallas defense.
Barton struggled through a mostly lost season last year but is healthy and playing consistent minutes again. His salary is still way down from where it’s been in the past at just $5,000, so he’s a nice bargain. That salary implies 21.29 FanDuel points, but we project him at 24.6 with a potential ceiling of 36.4.
Fast Break
Justise Winslow has had a huge first week and is expected to be a popular play. Our projections have him as the highest-owned SF. But his price has risen to $7,500, and he could also see his numbers suffer with Jimmy Butler back in the lineup. He could be a fade candidate for tournaments.
Atlanta’s DeAndre’ Bembry is a nice cheap option at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s produced more than his fellow Atlanta wings at 0.86 DraftKings points per minute, and he comes with a 95% Bargain Rating at his price. On a weak SF slate, Bembry could be worth a look as a punt play to afford the stud options.
Power Forward
Studs
Power forward is another loaded position Tuesday night, so you’ll probably want to invest in a big name. The biggest is Anthony Davis, and he comes off a lot like LeBron, where the key is which site you’re playing. On DraftKings, Davis has a 99% Bargain Rating at his $10,300 salary, but he’s way more expensive at FanDuel with a monster $12,300 price tag and a 0% Bargain Rating.
Davis projects as the highest-owned PF on the slate, and he has an interesting matchup against a Grizzlies team that plays at a fast pace but has held opposing bigs in check so far. Davis is averaging 25.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists a game. That’s certainly nothing to sneeze at, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see users elect to pay up for Luka Doncic and some of the other high-priced studs instead of Brow, which makes him intriguing in tournaments.
Value
Bam Adebayo is one of the best plays of the night on DraftKings with a +6.26 Projected Plus/Minus, and he’s rating well on FanDuel, too. Adebayo has been a fantasy monster, filling the box score up with 15.3 points, 11 boards, 5.3 dimes, one steal and 1.3 blocks per game. Despite all that production, his DraftKings price has yet to move an inch from $7,000, and that gives him an 87% Bargain Rating and makes him a strong option today.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis is a good stud swerve for tournaments. Porzingis is coming off his best game with the Mavericks at 32 points, nine boards and five assists, and he could benefit from increased offensive efficiency if Dwight Powell makes his season debut.
John Collins is another good option at DraftKings, where his $7,300 price tag gives him an 84% Bargain Rating. Collins has an 83% Consistency Rating with 42% Upside to boot, so he could be a smart play.
Center
Studs
It’s never too terrible of an idea to throw Nikola Jokic into your lineup if you can afford him. It’s a pretty weak slate at center tonight, and Jokic is the only center above $6,200 on FanDuel at $10,700, so you’ll need to decide if he’s worth the juice.
Jokic has struggled to start the season, with one triple-double buoyed by two disappointing performances in which he recorded only two assists each and came in almost 15 FanDuel points short of expectations each time. His price tag hasn’t budged, so you’re still paying up. Dallas is a softer matchup for Jokic, and his one great game this season also came at home, where he’ll play Tuesday night. He could be lower-owned than expected in tournaments if users elect to pay up for the other stud options.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas looks like an excellent option if paying down at center. At $6,200 on FanDuel, he comes with a 94% Bargain Rating in a matchup against the big Lakers. JV has produced 1.37 FanDuel points per minute, and we project him at 20.5 minutes. He could play extra tonight with the Grizzlies needing a little more heft at center against all the Lakers big men. He’s a high-leverage play with a 61% Leverage Score and could be a smart investment in tournaments.
Fast Break
Mason Plumlee is a direct fade to Jokic. He’s had his best two games when Jokic struggled, and he has a 68% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at $3,800. He rates as a 57% leverage play if you want to fade Jokic hard in tournaments.
Kelly Olynyk looks like a solid play, too. He’s listed as probable with a left quad contusion, so make sure he’s good to go before putting him into your lineup. That injury could work to your advantage if he does play, since KO played only 13 minutes Sunday and comes in at a season-low $4,400 salary at FanDuel with a 68% Bargain Rating.
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports.
Pictured: Bam Adebayo
