The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a one-game slate starting at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The single-game format is a little different across the industry, so make sure to brush up on your strategy for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-1.5), 232.5 total
Clippers (115.5 implied points)
The Clippers are slight underdogs in this contest, but they are dealing with a huge injury at the moment. Paul George will miss his sixth straight game with a hamstring injury, and he ranks second on the team with a usage rate of 31.1%. That obviously opens up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Kawhi Leonard stands out as the biggest beneficiary. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +2.5% with George off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.58 DraftKings points per minute. Overall, he’s dominated in 15 full contests without George, averaging 51.58 DraftKings points and a +4.1 Plus/Minus.
He also owns one of the best individual matchups of the day. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.95 on DraftKings, which is the top mark on the slate.
He’s an easy choice for one of the premium spots on FanDuel, but the bigger question is how to approach him on DraftKings. He clearly deserves to be in your lineup, and he warrants heavy consideration at Captain. He may not have as much upside as Luka Doncic, but he is significantly cheaper. He’ll save you $2,700 compared to Doncic at Captain, which makes it much easier to jam both into your lineup.
Lou Williams is another player who figures to see a boost in value with George out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.2% with George off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him nice upside.
Montrezl Harrell is more of an X-factor. He’s been a strong option over the past year, averaging 41.5 DraftKings points per game, but his production has declined recently. He’s played 24.7 minutes or less in each of his past three games, which is a bit surprising with George out of the lineup.
That said, we are currently projecting him for around 30 minutes of playing time, which makes him an interesting buy-low option. He has similar median and ceiling projections as Williams, but he costs $1,000 less on DraftKings. He’s not as appealing on FanDuel, where his $12,000 salary is actually more expensive than Williams’.
After the top-three options for the Clippers, the next tier is comprised of guys like Patrick Beverley, JaMychal Green and Ivica Zubac. Beverley is the safest bet of the trio. He’s projected for the most minutes, and he’s averaged a very respectable 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with George off the court this season. That said, he’s the most expensive option as well.
Zubac makes some sense at $4,600 on DraftKings. He doesn’t play a ton of minutes — he’s currently projected for just 18.6 — but he’s capable of racking up fantasy points when he is on the court. He’s a particularly nice target in lineups where you’re fading Harrell. Those players have a correlation of -0.21, so he tends to succeed on nights Harrell fails.
Green is probably a fade for me at his current price tag. He isn’t nearly as efficient as Zubac in terms of fantasy points per minute, and he’s not playing much more than him currently. Maurice Harkless is also expected to return to the lineup tonight, which could further cut into his playing time.
Speaking of Harkless, he’s definitely a viable option at just $6,000 on FanDuel. That’s the absolute minimum for their single-game format, and he’s definitely expected to have a role in the rotation.
Landry Shamet is another potential value target. He hasn’t been very productive with George off the court, averaging just 0.56 DraftKings points per minute, but he is currently projected for 27.8 minutes in our NBA Models. That might be a conservative projection as well: Shamet has played at least 29.9 minutes in each of his past two games.
Rounding out the rotation is Rodney McGruder. He shouldn’t be expected to come close to his 32.4 minutes from his last game, but he doesn’t need to at just $1,400 on DraftKings. If he can get to around 15 fantasy points, that would be enough to make him a relevant option in a stars-and-scrubs lineup. That’s definitely within his range of outcomes.
Mavericks (117.0 implied points)
The Mavericks are dealing with a big injury on their side as well. Kristaps Porzingis is currently questionable after missing each of the past 10 games, but he was able to practice on Sunday. He is definitely inching closer to a return, so make sure to monitor his status using the new Labs NBA Insiders tool.
Regardless of Porzingis’ status, Luka Doncic stands out as an elite option on today’s slate. Doncic and Leonard own the clear top ceiling projections in our Models, so it seems likely that both players will be in the winning lineup.
That said, Doncic would obviously become a stronger play if Porzingis is unable to suit up. He’s increased his usage rate to 37.5% in games without Porzingis this season, resulting in an average of 1.59 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also increased his rebound rate by +1.2% in those contests, which increases his chances of recording a double-double or triple-double.
He will have to deal with some tough individual defense in this contest — Beverley and Leonard both rank in the top three in Defensive Real Plus-Minus at their positions — and Doncic did struggle to just 43.5 DraftKings points in their first matchup this season. Still, he shot just 4-of-14 from the field and 0-of-8 from 3-point range in that contest, so it’s reasonable to expect better results today.
Outside of Doncic, it’s tough to identify a ton of value on the Mavs. Porzingis has the second highest ceiling projection if he’s able to suit up, but he’s on the expensive side across the industry. His minutes will almost certainly be limited if he plays, which makes him a tough option to trust. That said, it’s hard to get contrarian on these single-game slates, and that should result in reduced ownership for Porzingis. He also has a positive correlation with Doncic, so playing both guys together is a viable strategy.
Seth Curry is probably my favorite non-Doncic option for the Mavs. He’s seen a spike in playing time recently, logging 26.4 and 28.6 minutes in his past two games, and he’s responded with at least 23.75 DraftKings points in both contests.
He would also see one of the largest boosts in value if Porzingis is ruled out. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +2.6% in games without Porzingis this season, resulting in an average of 0.80 DraftKings points per minute. He’s simply too cheap at $4,000 on DraftKings.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is definitely someone who will garner attention today, but I’m not sure if I’ll be rostering him. He is currently projected for the second-most minutes on the squad, and he has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in games without Porzingis this season. That makes him pretty appealing at just $6,400.
That said, I am a bit concerned about his -0.08 correlation with Doncic. He also doesn’t really do anything but score the ball, so a poor shooting night means he’ll struggle to return value.
Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber are both more appealing options for me at slightly cheaper salaries. Both players have played big minutes recently, but that has obviously been with Porzingis out of the lineup. They should remain involved even if Porzingis returns, but don’t expect them to top 30 minutes again.
Dorian Finney-Smith should see plenty of minutes to try and serve as the Kawhi-stopper on defense, but it remains to be seen if that will translate into fantasy points. He’s a low-usage player, so it’s not surprising that he’s averaged just 0.69 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s too expensive at $9,000 on FanDuel, but he makes some sense at $5,800 on DraftKings.
Last but not least, Jalen Brunson could have some viability as a punt play at $1,200 on DraftKings. He’s projected for only 13.6 minutes, but he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Pictured: Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic (77) and Raptors F Kawhi Leonard (2)
Photo Credit: Glenn James-NBAE via Getty Images
