Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic got off to a poor start in his first game of the year, but he’s bounced back nicely over his past two. He’s finished with 58.25 and 60.0 DraftKings points, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 35.7% in both contests.
Doncic could be asked to carry an even larger workload on Thursday. Kristaps Porzingis is currently questionable with a back injury, and Doncic has increased his usage rate by +2.8% with Porzingis off the court this year. He’s averaged 1.68 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, which represents a slight increase from his average of 1.57 DraftKings points per minute over the past year.
Doncic leads the position with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $10,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
Kemba Walker is coming off his best game as a Knick, finishing with 38.25 DraftKings points over 28.2 minutes vs. the 76ers. He isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he did average 1.08 DraftKings points per minute last year. If he can keep up that level of production, he doesn’t need to play 30+ minutes to provide value at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
The Jazz are in a great spot Thursday vs. the Rockets. They own the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and the Rockets have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season. That makes Mike Conley a nice option at $5,900. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.45 with a comparable salary as a member of the Jazz (per the Trends tool).
Lonzo Ball can stuff the stat sheet, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 37.7 minutes in each of his past two games. That makes him simply too cheap at $7,000 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal just can’t seem to get going this year. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his three games this season, and his average of 19.7 points per game is his lowest mark since 2015-16.
Still, there are reasons for optimism moving forward. Beal’s still getting a ton of opportunities for the Wizards – his 36.4% usage rate would represent a new career-high – he’s just not making any shots at the moment. He’s shot just 33.3% from the field and 16.0% from 3-point range, both of which are well below his career averages.
Beal is going to start making some shots again, and when he does, he’s going to smash his current price tag across the industry. I will continue to buy low on him.
Value
De’Anthony Melton finally let us down in his last game. He finished with just 15.75 DraftKings points over 25.3 minutes in a blowout loss vs. the Blazers, and he was 0-8 from the field. With that in mind, the fact that he scored 15.75 DraftKings points is actually kind of impressive. The minutes should be there for Melton as long as Dillon Brooks is sidelined, and he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past year. He continues to provide nice value at just $5,100.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan’s nine Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games with the Bulls, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.8% in each of his past three. DeRozan could also be asked to do a bit more with Zach LaVine currently dealing with a torn ligament in his left thumb.
Eric Gordon is another potential option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s a weird fit on this rebuilding Rockets’ squad, but he’s still one of their offensive focal points off the bench. Overall, Gordon has racked up at least 26.5 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, including 35.2 in his last outing.
Small Forward
Stud
Joel Embiid has been questionable virtually all season for the 76ers, and there’s a chance he could sit out Thursday vs. the Pistons. If that happens, Tobias Harris would become one of the strongest plays on the slate, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%. Harris increased his usage rate to 31.8% with Embiid and Ben Simmons off the court last season, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He increased that mark to 1.45 in full games without both players, so he could do some damage if Embiid is ultimately ruled out.
Value
Kevin Porter Jr. is another elite value on FanDuel. His $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.29 in 17 career games with a comparable salary. Turnovers have been an issue for Porter this season – he’s averaged a ridiculous 6.3 per game – which has kept his fantasy scoring reasonable. That said, he remains capable of contributing in every fantasy category.
Fast Break
Small forward is pretty gross on DraftKings. The multi-positional eligibility doesn’t help us nearly as much as it does on FanDuel, and the pricing is much tougher overall. However, Jae’Sean Tate is popping as a strong option at just $4,800. He struggled in his last game, but he scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in his previous two contests. He dealt with foul trouble for most of that contest, which limited him to just 26.8 minutes. Expect him to return to his normal workload on Thursday, especially with Danuel House out of the lineup.
Desmond Bane is another potential source of value, and he’s crushed it to start the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games, including his last game where he was limited to just 23.2 minutes. Bane has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a bargain at just $4,800.
Power Forward
Stud
The Pistons are another team that could be a nice source of value on Thursday. Jerami Grant missed their last game with an elbow injury, and he’s questionable for tonight’s contest as well. Kelly Olynyk saw a nice spike in playing time in his absence, and he responded with 37.2 FanDuel points. Olynyk has always been an awesome contributor on a per-minute basis, so he’s always an appealing option when he’s expected to play big minutes. He’d be a steal at $5,400 if Grant is out of the lineup once again.
Value
Montrezl Harrell is another player who has always excelled on a per-minute basis, and he’s getting the opportunity to play big minutes for the Wizards. He played 38.2 minutes in his last contest, and he unsurprisingly finished with 44.7 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he should continue to crush with that much playing time.
Fast Break
Saddiq Bey isn’t as strong of an option for the Pistons as Olynyk, but that means he should check in with lower ownership. He ranked second on the team in usage in their last contest, and he’s scored at least 38.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s definitely a viable option.
Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn’t had as strong of a start as expected this year, but his skill set remains intriguing for fantasy. He’s also due for some positive shooting regression after making just 31.3% of his shots through his first four games.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert has had his struggles during the playoffs, but he’s been dominant to start the 2021-22 regular season. He’s averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s scored at least 44.5 DraftKings points in each of his first three games. He’s been particularly active on the glass, averaging a ridiculous 19.0 rebounds per game, and he should be able to dominate a weak Rockets’ interior. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26 in our NBA Models.
Value
Daniel Theis is not a particularly exciting DFS option, but he should be able to pay off his current price tag. He’s starting at center for the Rockets, and he’s coming off a season-high 29.2 minutes and 33.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He stands out at a position that is tough to find value at on Thursday.
Fast Break
Clint Capela has had a quiet start to his season, but he should be looking forward to a matchup vs. the Wizards. He dominated the Wizards in three matchups last season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.19 on FanDuel. The Wizards aren’t quite the same team as they were last year, but Capela still has plenty of buy-low appeal.
Finally, Embiid would have some appeal as a contrarian tournament option if he’s active. His production has been way down to start the year, but he’s still one of the best producers in fantasy on a per-minute basis. He averaged more than 1.8 DraftKings points per minute with Simmons off the court last year, so the big game is coming eventually.
