Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic enters this season as the favorite to take home the MVP award, and he’ll kick things off with a matchup vs. the Hawks. They were a subpar matchup last season for fantasy purposes, playing at the eighth-slowest pace, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 111.0 is the second-lowest mark on the slate. That’s not ideal, but Doncic is as matchup-proof as it gets. He averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he increased that figure to 1.77 during the preseason.
The big concern with Doncic is his salary. He’s the most expensive player on the slate on DraftKings, so some of the other stud options are popping in our NBA Models as better values. I would still consider Doncic in tournaments, but he’s probably not an option in cash games.
Value
Jrue Holiday made it through just 17.7 minutes on opening night before exiting with a heel injury. However, he’s probable to return to the court Thursday vs. the Heat.
Holiday was feeling it before getting injured on Tuesday, racking up 12 points and shooting 5-7 from the field. His salary has decreased to just $6,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Holiday has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.32 with a comparable salary as a member of the Bucks (per the Trends tool).
Editor’s note: Holiday was recently ruled out. Check the Player Models throughout the day for updates.
Fast Break
Jordan Poole is going to be a big part of the Warriors rotation this season. He posted a usage rate of 31.8% in their first game of the year, and he finished with 27.9 FanDuel points over 25.1 minutes. He didn’t even shoot the ball particularly well in that contest, but he still posted a Plus/Minus of +8.0. Poole remains one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Sticking with the Warriors, Steph Curry had a casual triple-double vs. the Lakers on opening night, resulting in 58.0 DraftKings points over 36.2 minutes. He shot a brutal 5-21 from the field in that contest, so he clearly has room for improvement vs. the Clippers. The Warriors also lead the slate with an implied team total of 115.75 points.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler has SG eligibility on FanDuel, and he’s coming off arguably the best fantasy season of his career. He averaged 21.5 points per game to go with a career-high 7.1 assists and 6.9 rebounds. He also led the league with an average of 2.1 steals per game. Those defensive contributions can make a huge difference on FanDuel at three points apiece, and Butler averaged 1.32 FanDuel points per minute last year.
The Heat start the new season in a massive pace-up spot vs. the Bucks. They ranked second in that department last year, which made them an above-average matchup for fantasy despite their strong defense. Overall, Butler could be a bit overlooked on this slate.
Value
Grayson Allen will likely be a popular source of value across the industry on Thursday. He was part of the Bucks’ starting lineup in their first game, and he ultimately finished with 29.8 FanDuel points over 27.7 minutes. He remains very affordable, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Fast Break
Reggie Jackson looks like an absolute steal at just $5,000 on FanDuel. The Clippers are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard for most of the year, so Jackson will serve as their No. 2 option offensively. He thrived in 11 games without Leonard during the postseason, averaging 33.6 FanDuel points per game. He wasn’t quite as effective sans Leonard during the regular season, but he still stands out as one of the strongest options at the position.
Shooting guard is kind of gross on DraftKings. Most of the studs at the position on FanDuel don’t have the same positional eligibility on DraftKings, which limits the player pool. Poole and Allen are your best bets, but Tyler Herro is also worth some consideration. He was lights out during the preseason, averaging 1.31 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s currently projected for more than 28 minutes in our NBA Models.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George carried the Clippers down the stretch last year, and he’s going to have to shoulder a massive workload to keep the team competitive without Leonard. George was capable of doing that last year. He increased his usage rate to 34.1% with Leonard off the court, resulting in an average of 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. That mark doesn’t put him in the same stratosphere as guys like Doncic and Curry, but it’s pretty close.
The Clippers will take on the Warriors in their first game of the year, and the Warriors played at a break-neck pace on Tuesday. That gives George plenty of upside.
Value
Otto Porter was expected to be a big part of the Warriors’ rotation this season, but that didn’t happen on opening night. He saw just 11.6 minutes of court time and finished with 11.2 FanDuel points.
That’s caused his price tag to plummet across the industry. He’s down to just $4,000 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings, and Porter has plenty of buy-low appeal at those prices. He’s capable of averaging more than 1.00 fantasy points per minute, and he’s expected to see a few additional minutes vs. the Clippers.
Fast Break
De’Andre Hunter is not the same per-minute threat as Porter, but his playing time is more secure. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a strong option at just $4,400 on FanDuel. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.89.
Playing Andrew Wiggins in DFS never feels good. He gets virtually all of his fantasy value from scoring, so he has a higher bust rate than the average player in his price range. Still, it’s hard to deny his upside at just $5,900 on DraftKings. He leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.62 with a comparable salary as a member of the Warriors.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still getting better. That’s a downright scary proposition for the rest of the league, but it’s mouth-watering for fantasy players. He averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he’s poised to improve on that number this year.
The biggest difference on opening night was his free throw shooting. He looked comfortable and confident at the line, and he got rid of the ball in just four or five seconds instead of nine or ten. He ultimately went 7-9, and if he can continue shooting at that rate, he’s going to provide even more scoring value this year. Giannis is already the best in the business at gobbling up rebounds and assists, so he’s poised for another monster season. He’s the top stud on the slate, especially on DraftKings at just $10,300.
Value
Jordan Nwora was a big part of the Bucks’ bench on Tuesday, and he should be looking at another expanded workload on Thursday. The team is still without Rodney Hood, Semi Ojeleye, Bobby Portis, and Donte DiVincenzo, and Nwora has some skills offensively. He averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he can take advantage of his playing time.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis looked healthy during the preseason, and he averaged a stout 1.66 FanDuel points per minute in those contests. I’m not expecting that to continue during the regular season, but head coach Jason Kidd has said all the right things about getting him more involved this season. I’m expecting him to be more productive this year until he inevitably gets injured, so this could be our only chance to buy low on him.
Draymond Green was a disappointment on opening night, but foul trouble limited him to just under 30 minutes. He should see a bit more playing time vs. the Clippers, and Green averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute last year. He’s a decent bounce-back target.
Center
Stud
Bam Adebayo is one of the most underrated players in the league. He’s a force on the defensive end, and he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet offensively. He was also more involved than usual during the preseason, posting a usage rate of at least 26.5% in all four games. His usage rate was just 23.7% last year, so that would represent a sizable increase. There’s no guarantee that continues during the regular season, but there are reasons for optimism with Adebayo on Thursday. His $7,600 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.
Value
The Clippers will not have Serge Ibaka on Thursday, so Ivica Zubac should handle most of the center minutes. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute last season. That makes him a steal at just $4,200.
Fast Break
Kevon Looney is another potential source of value. He didn’t play as much as expected on opening night, but he still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. His salary has also decreased by $500 on DraftKings, so he has some appeal across the industry.
Finally, Isaiah Hartenstein should see a handful of minutes off the Clippers’ bench, and he’s outstanding on a per-minute basis. He averaged 1.86 DraftKings points per minute during the preseason, and he finished with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute last year. He can definitely pay off his current salary with just 10-12 minutes vs. the Warriors, so he’s one of my favorite low-ownership options for tournaments.
