The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features seven games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
It is amazing to see the roll Russell Westbrook has been on. He is the top overall play on DraftKings using our NBA Model. Westbrook has 15 triple-doubles in 18 games over the past month. Luka Doncic is the only player with a higher fantasy points projection on FanDuel. Doncic gets the Brooklyn Nets, who will be without James Harden once again.
Value
The Indiana Pacers welcome the Atlanta Hawks, the contest with the highest game total on the slate. T.J. McConnell has another excellent opportunity to rack up fantasy points with Malcolm Brogdon and Edmond Sumner nursing injuries. Despite not being a threat from 3-point range, McConnell has attempted double-digit field goals and scored 10 or more points in each of the past two games. He also can fill the stat sheet, collecting at least two steals in four straight.
Fastbreak
Trae Young has an 85% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Young has also increased his fantasy points per minute .06 points over the past month. That is among the best at the position, trailing McConnell, Westbrook, LaMelo Ball, and Killian Hayes among safer options. Atlanta has the highest projected team total.
Ball is expected to match up against Coby White when the Hornets take on Chicago. That is all I would need to know to roster him.
Ja Morant has an 82% Leverage Score or better on FanDuel and DraftKings. He had his way with Minnesota last night and faces the Detroit Pistons, who will be sitting what feels like majority of their roster.
Shooting Guard
Stud
A healthy Fred VanVleet is one of my favorite players to watch. He ranks second among shooting guards on FanDuel, but is priced as the sixth and ranks ahead of the elite-priced tier on DraftKings. Toronto has been resting him with injuries and COVID bothering him and his teammates, but when he has played over the past week, he has scored at least 50 fantasy points per game. He will square off against Bradley Beal, one of the league’s top scorers this season. Raptors-Wizards has the second-highest projected point total on the main slate.
Value
Aaron Holiday is the other beneficiary of the Brogdon/Sumner injuries. He has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is one of the better 3-point shooters for the Pacers. He also has a top two matchup according to Opponent Plus/Minus.
Jalen Brunson and Alex Caruso also stick out as strong values because of the injury situations the Mavericks and Lakers are experiencing, respectively. Brunson is more likely to start when Kristaps Porzingis is out, and Caruso is the last guard standing for the Lakers.
Fastbreak
Brad Wanamaker and Terry Rozier have the highest shooting guard Projected Plus/Minuses on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Wanamaker’s minutes jumped with injuries and COVID protocols removing three players from the Hornets rotation that play ahead of him. That bears monitoring ahead of tip-off. Rozier is the alpha scorer with Gordon Hayward still out. Both have favorable matchups against Chicago.
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Caris LeVert has 46 field goal attempts over his past two games. Eight of them have come from deep. That matters against a Hawks team that struggles with athletic players who can get to the rim.
Desmond Bane gobbled up the minutes Grayson Allen vacated after leaving Wednesday’s game with an abdominal strain. Bane has 22 points in each of his past two games and should assume the starter role with Allen ailing.
Zach LaVine (COVID) is probable to make his return to the Bulls starting lineup. He has not played in two weeks and I expect him to have a minutes limit for at least this game against Charlotte.
Small Forward
Stud
I am looking forward to the combination of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith trying to slow Kevin Durant. KD has scored 30 points and/or had a double-double in three of his last four games. He also will continue to share the lead scoring role with Kyrie Irving, but is the Nets’ best scoring presence. Aside from Doncic, Durant is the clear favorite to lead the position in fantasy scoring in our NBA Model.
Values
Kyle Anderson and Saddiq Bey square off in Detroit and make strong complimentary players with two players needed at small forward on FanDuel. Bey is coming off a 2-for-12 evening and still almost put up a double-double. Anderson has at least 30 fantasy points in four straight and has seen his Usage Rate top 21% in two of his past four contests. I feel better spending a little more at small forward with Lu Dort questionable to play for Oklahoma City, or else I would pay down to get him.
Fastbreak
Oshae Brissett lost minutes to Goga Bitadze as the Pacers chose to play him with Domantas Sabonis to add more size to one of the worst defensive frontcourts in the NBA. Brissett was getting minutes at small forward and four and stands to lose majority of the value he had. He is now too expensive to consider in DFS, especially with players such as Bey, Anderson, and Draymond Green priced around him, site pending.
Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari are dominating wing minutes for Atlanta, hurting the values of Kevin Huerter and John Collins. Gallinari is the top rated power forward on DraftKings but is a small forward on FanDuel. Bogdan is eligible at point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings and small forward on FanDuel. Neither project for high ownership despite their current roles.
Kyle Kuzma could see his usage jump with the Lakers missing majority of their backcourt and LeBron James. The Lakers have a back-to-back, so if you pass on him tonight it would make sense to see what his role is with so many key players out for tonight and tomorrow.
Power Forward
Studs
The trio of Durant, Sabonis, and Pascal Siakam all deserve consideration. Durant has been discussed, Sabonis can put up a double-double against Clint Capela and/or John Collins, and Siakam gets a Wizards squad with no frontcourt talent. Sabonis has also been three total assists away from having three consecutive triple doubles. No surprise that Siakam rates the highest of this trio because he is by far the cheapest.
Siakam averages 38.03 FanDuel points per game with VanVleet and Kyle Lowry in the lineup. Without the two, he averages 42.64 points. That matters when you consider Siakam’s discount.
Value
It is Isaiah Stewart night! He averages over 40 fantasy points per game on both platforms without Mason Plumlee in the lineup. Stewart is the top rated power forward on FanDuel and a top five center on DraftKings. He also leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Fastbreak
Darius Bazley has met or exceeded projections in 10 of his 14 games over the past month despite Oklahoma City being in full tank mode. He also falls into a dead spot of pricing and once again has an unfavorable matchup against Golden State.
It would not surprise me to see Jeff Green and Blake Griffin share the floor in small-ball lineups with the Mavericks hurting at power forward and center. The Nets prefer the smaller lineups and get good spacing with Green a dangerous three-point shooter. DeAndre Jordan has seen his playing time decrease the past few weeks in favor of Green and Griffin.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela will be the latest center to feast on Indiana’s nonexistent frontcourt defense. He is the top rated big on FanDuel and has a top three projection on both platforms. That makes him a value on DraftKings as the fifth priced center.
Value
Khem Birch is a top 10 option on FanDuel and DraftKings and faces the Wizards’ three-man rotation that instills zero fear defensively. Birch has topped his projections in 10 of his last 12 games, including 10 in a row. I also like paying under $6,000 for a center that has been in the 25-31 minute range for the past month.
Fastbreak
Jonas Valanciunas is in line for another solid game and should collect one of his patented low-level double-doubles. Stewart is defensively sound, but JoVa is one of the better centers in the game. He is the second rated center on both platforms.
After getting handled by future MVP Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond has a much more favorable matchup against Ivica Zubac and the Los Angeles Clippers. Drummond carries a 90% Leverage score into tonight’s clash of L.A. teams.
Nikola Vucevic leads the position in Pro Trends and is the only center to have double-digit Trends on both sites. Vucevic (hip) is probable to play against Charlotte.
Pictured above: Isaiah Stewart #28 of the Detroit Pistons
Photo credit: Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images
