NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, March 25): Fox, George & Wiseman Highlight Top Lineup Options

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a five-game slate, commencing at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Keep in mind the NBA trade deadline is at 3 p.m. ET, so it’s possible that we have a few moves that impact the slate. Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates.

Point Guard

Stud

De’Aaron Fox has logged a ton of minutes for the Sacramento Kings recently. He’s coming off 39.5 minutes Wednesday agains the Atlanta Hawks, and he has averaged 37.5 minutes over his past 16 games. Unsurprisingly, all that playing time has led to good things from a fantasy perspective: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.15 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.

Fox could be looking at even more minutes against the Golden State Warriors. Cory Joseph was traded for Delon Wright, which opens up approximately 20 additional minutes in the Kings’ rotation. The Kings also have one of the best matchups of the day against the Warriors, and their implied team total of 114.5 ranks second on the slate.

Value

Jordan Poole has done an admirable job filling in for Steph Curry. He’s scored at least 34.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he should be able to put together another strong showing against the Kings. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and they’ve been one of the best possible matchups for point guards.

Fast Break

Alex Caruso is priced essentially at the minimum on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75 percent. He’s coming off 24 minutes in the Los Angeles Lakers’ last game, and he should be looking at a comparable workload against the Philadelphia 76ers. That should be more than enough playing time to pay off his salary given his average of 0.90 FanDuel points per minute. The Lakers are also rumored to be in on the Kyle Lowry sweepstakes, and there could be even more minutes available if they’re able to swing a deal.

On the other side of that matchup, Ben Simmons should continue to garner attention with Joel Embiid out of the lineup. Simmons has increased his usage rate by +2.5% and his assist rate by +4.2% with Embiid off the court this season, giving him more upside than usual.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Clippers lead the slate with an implied team total of 115.0, and they will be without Serge Ibaka for the sixth consecutive game. That makes Paul George an appealing option. He’s seen the second-largest usage bump on the team with Ibaka off the court this season, and he’s also seen a sizable price decrease over the past few games. The decrease has been warranted – George has 32.0 DraftKings points or less in four of his past six games – but $7,800 is simply too cheap for him on DraftKings. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.35 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).

Value

Tyrese Haliburton has been one of the most impressive rookies this season, and he’s scored at least 35.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He’s logged at least 35.5 minutes in both of those contests, and he’s another member of the Kings who could see a slight bump in playing time following the Joseph trade. He’s underpriced across the industry, but his $5,700 price tag on FanDuel is particularly egregious.

Fast Break

Andrew Wiggins laid a massive egg in his last game, finishing with just 14.9 FanDuel points despite Curry being out of the lineup. That said, he did post a positive Plus/Minus in each of his previous six contests, including a massive 65.6 FanDuel-point performance in his first game without Curry. It’s very hard to trust Wiggins, but he has big upside as the Warriors’ top offensive option against the Kings.

Bradley Beal has taken a backseat to Russell Westbrook recently, which means he could be a bit under-owned. He also owns a tough matchup vs. the Knicks – they rank last in pace and fourth in defensive efficiency – but he still leads all shooting guards in median and ceiling projection in our NBA Models.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard might be the top stud on a slate that is largely devoid of star power, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s scored at least 47.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, yet his salary has actually dropped over that time frame. He should continue to play a few additional minutes with Ibaka out of the lineup, and Leonard has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Value

Rui Hachimura has taken on a huge role for the Wizards with Davis Bertans out of the lineup. He’s logged at least 34.2 minutes in each of his past six games, and he’s played at least 37.6 minutes in four of them. He’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone priced at just $5,200 on FanDuel. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.47 on the number.

Fast Break

Nicolas Batum has had a career resurgence this season with the Clippers, and he’s played a few additional minutes recently with Ibaka out of the lineup. He’s coming off a huge 28.8 FanDuel-point performance in his last outing, so he has nice upside at $3,800.

Harrison Barnes is not someone that you’re ever excited to roster, but he’s another member of the Kings who is logging huge minutes at the moment. He’s played at least 41.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged a solid 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a nice option at just $6,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75 percent.

Power Forward

Stud

Bam Adebayo has PF eligibility on FanDuel, which increases his appeal on today’s slate. Center is typically a loaded position, but power forward is a lot thinner. Adebayo has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, and he’s in a solid spot tonight vs. the Blazers. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency, and Adebayo owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.24.

Adebayo could also benefit from the Heat’s current injury situation. Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler are both questionable, and Adebayo would be asked to pick up the slack if either are ruled out.

Value

Kelly Oubre has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and that’s where he stands out as the most valuable. He’s priced at just $6,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s coming off a huge performance in his last game. He finished with 45.5 DraftKings points, and he has the potential for another big game against the Kings.

Fast Break

Sticking with the Warriors, Draymond Green stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel. His $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%, which is the top mark at the power forward position by a wide margin. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to pile up the peripherals with Curry out of the lineup.

Marcus Morris is another member of the Clippers who deserves some attention. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games without Ibaka, and he remains affordable across the industry.

Center

Stud

The Lakers aren’t in the best spot against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have been one of the best defensive teams in basketball, but Montrezl Harrell is an appealing bounce-back target. He struggled in his last game, but he continues to play more minutes than usual with LeBron James and Anthony Davis out of the lineup. He scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in each of his two previous games, so he clearly has the potential to pay off his current salary.

Value

It’s officially James Wiseman season in Golden State. He started in the Warriors’ last game, and head coach Steve Kerr said he expects Wiseman to start for the rest of the season. That makes a lot of sense with the Warriors not really contending, and Wiseman is obviously a huge part of the Warriors’ future.

That makes Wiseman a very appealing value on the slate. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should play around 26 minutes in an elite matchup against the Kings.

Fast Break

Ivica Zubac has taken over as the starting center with Ibaka out of the lineup, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel. He’s provided elite value in four of those performances, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +10.51, and he’s played at least 32.4 minutes in three of them. There’s no guarantee he sees that much playing time today, but he still stands out as an excellent option at $5,600.

It didn’t take long for Mitchell Robinson to work his way back into the Knicks’ rotation. He played just 16.7 minutes in his first game back from injury, but he was ramped up all the way to 30.7 minutes in his second game. He finished with 40.5 DraftKings points in that contest, but his price actually dropped to $5,100 for tonight’s matchup against the Wizards. The Wizards are a dream matchup for centers, and Robinson owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings.