Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Point guard is a strong position on Thursday, with five players owning a salary of at least $10,200 on DraftKings. Of the group, Dejounte Murray stands out as my favorite. He has been highly productive recently, averaging 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off a disappointing performance in his last outing, but he finished with more than 70 DraftKings points in the game prior.
Murray also benefits from one of the best possible matchups on Thursday. He’s taking on the Kings, who rank seventh in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Spurs’ implied team total of 124.0 is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. No other team owns an implied team total of greater than 117.0.
Value
Kyle Lowry has missed two straight games due to personal reasons, and he remains out of the lineup Thursday vs. the Nets. That makes Gabe Vincent one of the better value plays on the slate. He’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in his past two starts, and he’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Nets also represent an excellent matchup for point guards, giving Vincent an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.44.
Fast Break
The Celtics will be playing without Jaylen Brown on Thursday, who suffered an ankle injury in their last outing. Derrick White ended up taking on some extra offensive responsibilities in that contest, racking up 28.0 DraftKings points over 27.8 minutes. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and White has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Steph Curry has a tough matchup Thursday vs. the Mavericks, but he’s still worth some consideration on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. Curry has historically been able to pay off a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.52 (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most appealing on Thursday. Not only is shooting guard a much weaker position overall, but Doncic stands out as a massive value. He’s priced at just $10,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Doncic has been playing some of his best basketball recently, and the Mavericks have won eight of their past 10 games. He’s increased his production to 1.59 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.07 over that time frame. Doncic leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, even in a tough matchup vs. the Warriors.
Value
The Lakers are in rough shape at the moment. That’s not exactly a new development, but they’ve been particularly bad of late. They’ve lost six of their past seven games, and they’ve dropped to ninth in the Western Conference standings. There is a legit chance they don’t even make the play-in tournament, which would’ve been unfathomable at the beginning of the year.
They’re also without Anthony Davis at the moment, so they’re going to need some contributions from some unexpected sources. Malik Monk has been one of them. He’s coming off 39.5 minutes in his last outing, and he racked up 31.5 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced at $4,700.
Fast Break
Patty Mills has struggled recently, averaging just 0.57 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. However, his price has dipped to just $4,100, and he should see a significant role with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. He’s projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.24.
Cade Cunningham has seen a slight price bump recently, but his $7,100 salary on FanDuel still results in a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s coming off 38.3 FanDuel points in his last outing.
Small Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum is another member of the Celtics who should benefit from the absence of Brown. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.1% with Brown off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also been fantastic in 14 full games without his star teammate, averaging 48.75 DraftKings points per game. Tatum’s price tag has been on the decline of late – he’s seen a price drop of -$600 over the past month on DraftKings – making him an excellent buy-low option vs. the Grizzlies.
Value
Jeremy Lamb has been given new life as a member of the Kings. He struggled to find consistent playing time with the Pacers this season, but he’s played at least 26.3 minutes in two of his past three games. Lamb is projected for a similar workload on Thursday, and he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. He remains underpriced across the industry.
Fast Break
Trae Young is currently questionable for the Hawks, and his absence would open up a few appealing value opportunities with the rest of the roster. However, no one on the team has seen a larger usage bump with Young off the court than Kevin Huerter. Huerter also stands out as a substantial value on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Scottie Barnes has put together back-to-back big games for the Raptors. He racked up 66.2 FanDuel points two games ago, and he finished with 39.0 FanDuel points over 41.1 minutes in his last outing. OG Anunoby remains out of the lineup, so Barnes should be looking at another expanded workload vs. the Pistons. Fred VanVleet is also questionable, and his absence would further increase Barnes’ appeal.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is a major wild card on Thursday’s slate. He’s expected to make his return to the lineup, but he will likely be limited following an extended absence. That obviously makes him tough to trust in DFS.
Still, Durant has the potential to do some major damage when he’s on the floor. He is the last superstar standing in Brooklyn, and he’s increased his usage rate to 36.3% with Irving and James Harden off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he’s averaged 66.92 DraftKings points in three full games with both players out of the lineup. If Durant’s ownership projection is minimal, he’s worth some consideration as a contrarian option.
Value
Trey Lyles was a massive disappointment as a chalk value option on Wednesday. That said, I’m going right back to the well with Lyles on Thursday. His playing time projection is a bit more modest, but Lyles is still capable of producing in limited playing time. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off a $4,000 salary.
Fast Break
Kelly Olynyk is another player logging limited minutes at the moment. He’s currently projected for 21 minutes in our NBA Models, which would be enough to write off most players. However, Olynyk makes up for it with his efficiency. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, and it’s hard to find players in this price range with that much upside. He scored 40.5 DraftKings points over 24.2 minutes just two games ago, so he has an excellent ceiling at $4,700.
Pascal Siakam should also see a boost for the shorthanded Raptors. They’ve recently cut down on his minutes, but he’s currently projected for 38 in our NBA Models. His price tag has also dipped to $8,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Center
Stud
Center is typically one of the most top-heavy positions in DFS, but that’s not the case on Thursday. No one at the position is priced above $9,700 on DraftKings, and the most expensive players have dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel.
Bam Adebayo stands out as an outstanding option if you are spending up. He’s been extremely productive of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings. He should also benefit from the continued absence of Lowry, and his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
John Collins remains out of the lineup for the Hawks, so Clint Capela should continue to see a few additional minutes. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, so that’s a highly appealing thought for DFS players. He hasn’t exactly taken advantage of his increased playing time of late, but the upside for a big game remains the same. The Bulls also represent an elite matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41.
Fast Break
If you’re looking to go cheaper than Capela on DraftKings, Isaiah Stewart seems like your best bet. He’s managed to return value in five straight games, and he’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Stewart also remains reasonably priced at $4,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Domantas Sabonis stands out as the preferred stud option on FanDuel. He’s shown no problems fitting in with his new team, racking up at least 42.3 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. He’s underpriced at $9,200.
