Thursday features a one-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Studs
The single-game format is a bit different than the traditional format. With only two teams to choose from, you’ll need to go a bit deeper than usual. Everyone who is expected to get playing time becomes a viable option.
I typically default to a “stars and scrubs” approach on single-game slates. The star players provide the most upside, while the cheapest players have the potential to provide the most value. If you can nail the right cheap players to round out your lineups, it’s a great way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard.
As for the studs, options are a bit limited in this matchup. Neither of these teams is brimming with talent, and the two highest-priced options are questionable.
Cade Cunningham leads the way for the Pistons, and the No. 1 overall pick from the 2021 NBA Draft has been playing well of late. He missed the Pistons’ last game due to an illness, but he scored at least 45.5 DraftKings points in four of his previous six games. He’s also projected for 37 minutes vs. the Magic, which is the top mark in our NBA Models. If he’s able to suit up, he’s easily the top option on the slate from a raw points perspective.
Wendell Carter Jr. has been the Magic’s top fantasy option of late. He’s carved out a role as their unquestioned top center after opening the year in a battle with Mo Bamba. WCJ has racked up at least 36.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games, and he’s scored at least 41.5 in four of them.
The Pistons represent a nice matchup for Carter as well. They’ve allowed the ninth-most points in the paint per game this season, and they rank dead last in team rebound rate. Both of those stats bode well for opposing centers.
Unfortunately, Carter is also questionable for this contest due to an ankle injury, and his status will be vital to monitor heading into lineup lock.
Midrange
Cole Anthony is coming off 35.0 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes in his last outing. The Magic were run out of the gym by the Nets, but Anthony’s excellent per-minute production is a positive for his fantasy outlook moving forward.
The Magic will be without Jalen Suggs once again on Thursday, so Anthony should continue to see a boost in value. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +1.8% with Suggs off the court, resulting in an average of 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. The Magic are also three-point home favorites, so they have a smidge more scoring potential than the Pistons. Add it all up, and Anthony stands out as one of the best options on the slate.
Saddiq Bey is another excellent combination of value and upside. His ceiling projection is only slightly lower than Carter and Anthony’s, but he comes in at a discount.
His production has been mediocre of late, scoring 27.5 DraftKings points or fewer in five straight games. However, he should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the absence of Jerami Grant. He’s averaged 32.28 DraftKings points in 25 games without Grant this season, and he’s played an average of 35.0 minutes. Hamidou Diallo is also out of the lineup for the Pistons, so Bey should be asked to carry a sizable workload. This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Marvin Bagley has been given new life with the Pistons. He started the year out of the Kings’ rotation despite being the No. 2 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. He began to earn more playing time as the year progressed, but he was still an afterthought in Sacramento.
It’s still unclear if he’s a part of the Pistons’ future, but he’s at least a part of their present. He’s started three of their past four games, and he will likely move back into the starting lineup with Grant sidelined. He’s averaged 31.7 minutes over his previous five outings, and Bagley is an excellent per-minute producer. Bagley has been at just under 1.00 DraftKings points per minute during his tenure with the Pistons, so he can do some damage with consistent playing time.
Bamba struggled with foul trouble in his last contest, limiting him to 16.6 minutes. He predictably struggled, finishing with just 12.75 DraftKings points. However, Bamba logged at least 32.3 minutes in his two previous contests, so expect some positive regression vs. the Pistons. Bamba has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he would see a significant boost if Carter is ruled out.
Franz Wagner has had an excellent rookie season for the Magic, but he’s recently hit a bit off a wall. He’s scored 26.5 DraftKings points or fewer in five straight games, and his per-minute production has cratered over the past month. His price tag has also inexplicably increased of late, so it’s hard to get excited about him as a buy-low target.
Isaiah Stewart returned to the lineup in the Pistons’ last game, and he responded with 16.5 DraftKings points over 21.8 minutes. He’s expected to see a few additional minutes on Thursday – he’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models – and his $5,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Stewart has also seen a +1.6% usage bump in games without Grant this season, making him an excellent midrange target.
Killian Hayes and Cory Joseph are splitting backcourt duties for the Pistons. Joseph started their last game, but Hayes was the one who saw the most playing time. He racked up nearly 30.2 minutes, while Joseph played just 17.8.
Considering the Pistons’ record, it makes sense for them to lean on their younger players down the stretch. I would expect Hayes to continue to log more minutes than Joseph, making him the preferred option.
Fast Break
- Moe Wagner ($4,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Wagner is an excellent producer on a per-minute basis, but finding consistent playing time is an issue. He’s coming off 35.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, but he benefitted from Bamba’s foul trouble and the game turning into a blowout. He’s only in play at his current salary if Carter is ruled out.
- Markelle Fultz ($4,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel): Fultz’s career has never been able to get going, and he’s currently attempting to come back from an ACL injury. He’s yet to play more than 20 minutes in a game, but he does lead the team with an average of 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with Suggs off the court.
- Kelly Olynyk ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Olynyk is another excellent per-minute producer who struggles to find consistent playing time. There’s a chance he plays more with Grant and Diallo sidelined, but the Pistons could also funnel those minutes to some of their younger players.
- R.J. Hampton ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Hampton started in place of Suggs on Tuesday and racked up 31.4 minutes. He struggled to just 12.25 DraftKings points, but it’s hard to find players with that much playing time upside at such a cheap price tag. He leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and should be one of the most popular value options on the slate.
- Gary Harris ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Harris has been in and out of the lineup for the Magic recently, but he is not currently on the injury report. That said, he’s not a particularly strong per-minute producer, and he’s projected for just 20 minutes on this slate.
- Isaiah Livers ($2,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Livers is one of my favorite under-the-radar value options. He’s quietly played at least 26.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and that doesn’t figure to change with Grant and Diallo sidelined.
- Rodney McGruder ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): McGruder started in place of Cunningham on Tuesday, and he finished with 20.2 minutes. That would make him interesting at $1,200 if he starts again. However, McGruder is also questionable for the Pistons, so it’s possible that he doesn’t play at all.
- Robin Lopez ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Lopez is at the bottom of the pecking order among the Magic’s big men. Seriously, why do they have so many centers? Lopez hasn’t suited up for the Magic since March 4, but he could re-enter the rotation if Carter is ruled out.
- Terrence Ross ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Ross was once one of the better bench scorers in basketball, but the Magic have no interest in using him at the moment. It makes sense given their current record, so don’t expect an uptick in playing time on Thursday. He’s currently projected for 12 minutes in our NBA Models, and that’s not enough to make him relevant.
