Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
There are only two games to choose from on Thursday, but there is still an abundance of stud options. That includes James Harden at point guard, who will take the floor in a #RevengeGame vs. the Nets. Harden has played well in his brief tenure with the 76ers, increasing his production to 1.54 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. However, he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games on DraftKings, and he’s failed to crack 50 DraftKings points in each of his past two. His price has come down a bit, but there are better ways to spend your salary.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Goran Dragic has started to find his footing with the Nets. He signed with the Nets after agreeing to a buyout with the Spurs, and he’s racked up at least 27.7 minutes in two of his past three games. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and Dragic has averaged a solid 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season. Dragic is also priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.88 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Stephen Curry is worth consideration as a stud option on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He also leads the position with nine Pro Trends.
Monte Morris has played some of his best basketball of late, averaging 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted three straight massive games, scoring at least 34.5 FanDuel points in each contest. He’s expected to see around 30 minutes on Thursday, making him underpriced at $4,700 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jordan Poole is not exactly priced like a stud – especially on DraftKings at $5,400 – but he stands out as the clear top option at the position. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, scoring at least 34.25 DraftKings points in each contest. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models, which might be a conservative estimate. Poole has racked up at least 29.8 minutes in three straight games, and the Warriors are currently without a host of their usual role players. Poole is a slam-dunk option on DraftKings, and he’s worth considering on FanDuel as well.
Value
Sticking with the Warriors, Moses Moody has started each of their past two games. The first start came when the team was extremely shorthanded, but he remained in the starting lineup alongside Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins on Tuesday.
If he draws another start, he’s going to be tough to avoid at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s racked up 30 minutes in his last outing and responded with 26.5 DraftKings points vs. the Clippers.
Fast Break
Thompson stands out as the Warriors’ preferred target on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.19 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off a season-high 33.7 minutes in his last outing. Thompson has averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do plenty of damage with that much playing time.
Kyrie Irving is coming off a monster performance in his last game, finishing with 50 points and 65.6 FanDuel points in 37.5 minutes vs. the Hornets. He remains reasonably priced at $9,700 on FanDuel, but it’s hard to see him duplicating those results vs. the 76ers. Irving has averaged just 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season, so his last game stands out as a clear outlier.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant took a backseat to Irving on Tuesday, finishing with just 26.25 DraftKings points over 39.6 minutes. He posted a usage rate of just 20.2%, which was his lowest mark of the entire season.
Durant stands out as a clear bounce-back target vs. the 76ers. The fact that he played nearly 40 minutes is highly encouraging, and he’s projected for a slate high 38 minutes on Thursday. Durant has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his salary has decreased to just $10,300 on DraftKings.
Value
Bruce Brown stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,100 despite a $6,900 salary on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. Brown has also been balling of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.43 over his past 10 contests, and he’s scored at least 35.5 DraftKings points in his past three games. Brown has increased his fantasy output to 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, an outstanding mark for his price tag.
Fast Break
Will Barton’s status is unknown after missing the past two games with an ankle injury. That said, he’s a strong option on FanDuel if he’s able to suit up. He leads the position with a 95% Bargain Rating, and his $4,900 salary represents a decrease of -$1,600 over the past month.
Jonathan Kuminga is another player who should benefit from the Warriors’ absences on Thursday. They’re currently without Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II, and Otto Porter, leaving plenty of playing time for the talented rookie. He racked up 37.2 FanDuel points over 26 minutes in his last contest, and he’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward is the weakest position on Thursday’s slate, especially if you’re using Durant as a small forward. No one else is priced above $7,000 on DraftKings or $6,400 on FanDuel.
With that in mind, buying low on Tobias Harris makes some sense. He’s seen a massive price reduction across the industry over the past month. His production has seen a sizable dip since the acquisition of Harden, with Harris scoring 27.9 FanDuel points or fewer in five of his past six games. The lone exception was a 30.6 FanDuel-point performance vs. the Heat, which was the game where Harden sat.
Still, the 76ers are the clear top team to target on Thursday. They’re currently implied for 119.5 points against a Nets squad that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. Harris has also shot just 39.1% from the field and 26.9% from 3-point range over his past six games, so he’s a candidate for some positive shooting regression as well.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica has some sneaky appeal at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He hasn’t been very involved for the Warriors of late, but their current absences should allow him to carve out a role. He’s racked up at least 18.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and Bjelica has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He also owns one of the better individual matchups at power forward, resulting in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.21.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon stands out as the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%. His playing time has been volatile of late, but he did see 33.6 minutes in his last outing. Gordon has averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that should be enough playing time to return value.
Georges Niang is a similar play to Bjelica on Thursday. He’s priced at just $3,700, and he’s expected to see around 20 minutes vs. the Nets. He’s not nearly the same type of per-minute producer as Bjelica, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games.
Center
Stud
As usual, the decision at center comes down to a showdown between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Both players are locked in a heavyweight battle for the MVP, and both players have delivered massive fantasy performances of late.
Jokic has been slightly better on a per-minute basis over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 75.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. However, Embiid has the better matchup vs. the Nets.
There are no wrong choices between these two players, but Embiid owns a slight edge in our NBA Models. Both players are projected very similarly, but Embiid’s cheaper price tag makes him the superior value.
Value
Kevon Looney is the clear choice if you’re spending down at center. He’s massively underpriced at $4,100 on DraftKings given his current role with the Warriors. He’s seen an uptick in playing time given all their injuries, and he’s also increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Overall, he’s scored at least 21.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games.
Luckily, pairing Looney with one of the top centers is feasible across the industry. You can utilize him in the utility spot on DraftKings, and he has PF eligibility on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond leads the position with a 79% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he remains one of the best per-minute producers in the business. That means he has massive upside on nights where he plays more than expected. He realized that upside in his last outing, racking up 47.8 FanDuel points over 24.4 minutes.
