NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, Jan. 28): Blazers’ Lillard Leads Marquee Plays On Small Card

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a four-game slate, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

The Blazers have been decimated by injuries recently. C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are both dealing with long-term ailments, while Robert Covington will miss his second consecutive game due to a concussion. That opens up a ton of minutes and usage for the rest of the roster.

Damian Lillard will once again be asked to carry the load offensively. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.4% in three games with McCollum and Nurkic out of the lineup, resulting in an average of 1.35 FanDuel points per minute. He also owns an excellent matchup against the Rockets. Lillard owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.75 on FanDuel, with the Blazers’ implied team total of 112.25 ranking second on the slate.

Value

The Clippers will be playing without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley for the second consecutive game due to health and safety protocols. Reggie Jackson absolutely dominated in the first game without that trio, finishing with 47.4 FanDuel points thanks to 20 points, seven rebounds and eight assists. His price has skyrocketed to $7,000 on DraftKings, but he remains very affordable at just $5,000 on FanDuel. He’s tough to avoid at that price tag.

Fast Break

The Suns are another potential source of value. We’re still waiting for an official status on Devin Booker, who was unable to suit up yesterday. It sounds like he’s trending in the right direction, but it would not be surprising if he’s forced to miss another game.

If that happens, Chris Paul will become a popular option across the industry. He’s crushed in his past two games without Booker, finishing with 56.75 and 47.25 DKFP, so his $8,000 price tag is reasonable. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.6% with Booker off the court in general this season, resulting in an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute.

Anfernee Simons is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 31.9 FanDuel points over 29.4 minutes in his last game. He may not see that much playing time again today – he’s currently projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models – but he’s increased his production to 0.98 FanDuel points per minute with McCollum, Nurkic, and Covington off the court this season.

Shooting Guard

Stud

This does not seem like a great day to pay up at shooting guard. Victor Oladipo is the priciest option at the position, but he’s coming off back-to-back disastrous performances. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of -14.39 or worse in both games on FanDuel despite Christian Wood being out of the lineup. Wood will return to the court tonight, which will have a negative impact on Oladipo’s usage.

Still, he’s a prime candidate for some positive shooting regression. He’s shot just 11-37 from the field over his past two games, which is insanely low. Even if he loses some shots to Wood tonight, he should be able to make up for it with some better efficiency.

Value

Terance Mann got a chance to shine for the Clippers Tuesday against the Hawks. He played a season-high 34 minutes and responded with 34.3 FanDuel points. He was able to stuff the stat sheet – his four steals were particularly useful on FanDuel – and he should be looking at another expanded workload today.

Fast Break

DraftKings was very aggressive pricing up the value options for the Clippers, but the Suns’ players remain affordable. Jevon Carter is priced down at $3,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent, and he has the potential to return value at that salary without much playing time. He’s averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should play around 20 minutes if Booker is ruled out again.

Wayne Ellington has been an excellent source of value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel thanks to his ability to shoot the ball from deep. He’s made at least four three-pointers in all six of those contests, and he’s been one of the best 3-point marksmen in basketball this season. He should continue to see plenty of playing time with Derrick Rose out or limited.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James was priced down for a bit, but his salary has slowly crept back over $10,000 on both DraftKings on FanDuel. That might be a touch expensive for James at the moment — his average of 33.0 minutes per game is the lowest of his career — but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games.

He should find plenty of success when on the court vs. the Pistons. They’ve struggled defensively this season, ranking just 25th in defensive efficiency, and James owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45 on FanDuel. There aren’t a ton of studs to consider paying up, which is another factor working in LeBron’s favor.

Value

Cameron Johnson is one of my favorite value targets. He’s played at least 31.5 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models. Johnson is capable of providing excellent production, and he’s increased his output to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with Booker off the court this season. He’s a better value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%, but he’s a viable option across the industry.

Mikal Bridges is another potential option for the Suns. He’s slightly more expensive than Johnson and hasn’t been good on a per-minute basis with Booker off the court, but he should see more playing time.

Fast Break

Jerami Grant will likely be under-owned today, mainly because he’s under-owned on every slate. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.49 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month, so he’s one of the most undervalued assets in fantasy at the moment. He leads the position today with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Derrick Jones Jr. stands out as one of the better pure values on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,400, and he’s currently projected for 34.0 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.29 (per the Trends tool).

Power Forward

Stud

Anthony Davis remains one of the most talented players in the league, but that hasn’t translated to fantasy success recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.38 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, which has caused his salary to drop to just $8,900. That could make him an appealing buy-low target. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and his nine Pro Trends ranks second at the position. His ownership should also be modest given his poor production of late.

Value

Draymond Green has not been the same player for the Warriors this season that he was in his prime. That said, he’s still averaged a respectable 0.81 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s played around 30 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both of those contests, which makes him a viable option at $4,900 vs. the Suns.

Fast Break

Jae Crowder is another potential value option for the Suns. He’s scored at least 34.4 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he played 32.8 minutes with Booker out of the lineup yesterday. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he’s viable on both sites.

We’re still waiting for an update on the Heat, but there’s at least a chance that Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic will all miss tonight’s contest vs. the Clippers. All three players were out of the lineup last night, so make sure to monitor their statuses using the Labs Insiders tool.

If all three players are out again, Bam Adebayo would be a strong target. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.5 with Butler, Herro, and Dragic off the court, so he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.

Center

Stud

Deandre Ayton disappointed on Wednesday, finishing with just 20.8 FanDuel points over 35.1 minutes. That said, his long-term outlook without Booker is strong. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.6% with Booker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. That number was much higher before yesterday’s clunker, but it still represents a sizable increase compared to his average 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Value

Kevon Looney is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he’s started the past two games for the Warriors. He hasn’t played a ton of minutes in those contests, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each game. He doesn’t possess much ceiling, but he’s a solid bet to return value tonight vs. the Suns.

Fast Break

Harry Giles might be the preferred option on DraftKings if you’re paying down in tournaments. He doesn’t start – which should keep his ownership lower than Looney’s – but he’s expected to play approximately the same number of minutes. He’s also averaged 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season, which gives him significantly more upside.

Enes Kanter saw a nice spike in playing time with Covington out of the lineup in his last game. He finished with 49.9 FanDuel points over 31.9 minutes, and Kanter is always going to be appealing when he sees that much playing time. He’s averaged 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has the ability to put up huge numbers when he hits his minute’s ceiling.