The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features three games, scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
LeBron James and James Harden help bolster the position on a small slate with their DraftKings eligibility. Both are top three at the position in Projected Plus/Minus, Leverage, and Points Per Salary. They are both projected to be highly owned in what may be a preview of the NBA Finals.
Value
Dennis Schroder projects to match up against Harden tonight. He is priced below $6,000 and is a top three option on both sites. The Lakers have the second-highest projected team total according to the FantasyLabs Vegas Model, and we are all aware of Brooklyn’s willingness to not forgo defense.
Fast Break
Cory Joseph was inserted into Sacramento’s starting five and has produced in a limited sample. He could have scary-high ownership (projected 36-40%) and the Kings have the lowest projected team total.
The best pivot off James and Harden on DraftKings is Fred Van Vleet. Milwaukee has had issues stopping opposing guards before injuries hit them and VFF just lit them up for 50-plus points Tuesday. The rematch between Toronto and Milwaukee has the highest projected total of the slate.
Kyrie Irving is probable with lower back tightness heading into Brooklyn’s showcase against the Lakers. Monitor his status and keep up with the latest news using the Labs Insider tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The top play on both sites using the FantasyLabs NBA Model is Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat. The NBA Top Shot legend has hit multiple 3-pointers in nine consecutive games and has seen his Usage Rate over 20% in eight of those contests. Herro also has the best matchup on FanDuel according to Opponent Plus/Minus, a great tool to see how many points above expectation an opponent gives up. There are enough big names at shooting guard to keep his ownership lower.
Value
The safest I feel spending down at shooting guard is with Donte DiVincenzo at $5,100 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings. He has settled into the starting lineup with majority of the defensive attention being given to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton and is the second-best option on FanDuel behind Herro.
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton had his worst shooting performance in a couple weeks on Tuesday and could see more time against Miami’s second unit with Cory Joseph in the starting lineup and De’Aaron Fox healthy. He has the second best Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
Duncan Robinson could be the dart throw on DraftKings that makes or breaks a lineup when trying to get different. He has a Projected Plus/Minus just above 3.0, an important bar to cross when finding value, but the 3-point shooting has not been there for him as opposing defenses clamp down. A strong performance from Robinson in Miami’s second game on a back-to-back could help take the heavy workload off Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is my favorite play of the slate against Brooklyn. The absence of Anthony Davis makes James the automatic go-to on offense. Only Khris Middleton has a higher Projected Plus/Minus.
Speaking of Middleton, he is the top play on FanDuel as he hopes to rebound off a dud performance Tuesday. He is $3,200 cheaper than James on FanDuel and is expected to command higher ownership. James and Middleton are first and second in our Pro Trends at small forward for Thursday.
Value
If the Raptors go small, Norman Powell is underpriced on FanDuel and OG Anunoby is a value on DraftKings. Powell saw over 30 minutes in Anunoby’s return while Anunoby was exceptional in just under 27 minutes and with a tough assignment. Powell can also exploit whoever is playing shooting guard for Milwaukee since he plays the two and three nightly.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler saw his second lowest Usage Rate in nearly two weeks last night and still put up a triple-double against Golden State. I do not know if his minutes will be monitored on the second of a back-to-back, but he should get his against the Kings tonight. Butler only trails James in Fantasy Points Per Minute at small forward.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis is the top dog coming off two 70-plus fantasy point efforts, including one against the Raptors. There is no reason to think another 60-plus point performance is coming.
Pascal Siakam is the top leverage play since he opens so much salary while projected well on both sites. He is the top power forward play on DraftKings and has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Value
Bobby Portis and Marvin Bagley both fall into a good range for value and project nearly the same across every metric. In a tiebreak scenario, the choice comes down to whether Bagley sees a lot of Adebayo, or playing Portis, a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, on a Bucks teams with the highest projected team total.
Fast Break
Kevin Durant is out again, giving Jeff Green another avenue to minutes. He does not rank well in our models but is a cheap option facing a Lakers team without Anthony Davis.
Chris Boucher is power forward eligible on FanDuel and hit 30 fantasy points against Milwaukee Tuesday with a strong defensive performance. He remains an option in a thin FanDuel pool.
Kyle Kuzma laid an offensive egg Tuesday and is in a prime bounce-back spot against Brooklyn. Tuesday was the first time since Feb. 4 that Kuzma did not have double-digit shot attempts.
Center
Stud
A lot of the power forward studs have center eligibility on DraftKings. Beyond those names, Hassan Whiteside pops as a top play. The position is weak on FanDuel with Montrezl Harrell the only player priced higher than Whiteside. Whiteside has the #RevengeGame narrative against Miami and should start with Richaun Holmes already ruled out for tonight. He is coming off his best performance of the season with a double-double and five blocks. His ownership does fall below the power forward/center studs and FanDuel center ownership projects to be relatively flat.
Value
Kelly Olynyk has the best opponent matchup on both sites and can be rostered for $5,000 or less.
Fast Break
I would strongly consider fading Brook Lopez against the bigs of Toronto. Aron Baynes is the defense-first big, with Boucher there to be the dual-threat option in the paint while also being able to force Lopez away from the basket. The only expected starting center with a lower Projected Plus/Minus is DeAndre Jordan.
Jordan will see a mix of Harrell and Marc Gasol. Gasol will shoot from anywhere while Harrell likes to play bully ball, making Jordan a fade with a mix of defensive assignments keeping him on his toes. The younger Gasol saw almost 30 minutes for the first time this season and is a lock for 23-25 minutes with Anthony Davis out. Gasol is a unique play with his ownership projected below 10% on both sites.
