Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
The final day before the All-Star break features just five games, but it is jam-packed with star power. Luka Doncic headlines the point guard position, and he’s been fantastic of late. He’s coming off just 45.5 DraftKings points in his last game, but he’s still averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.11 over his past 10 games.
His usage rate has also skyrocketed recently. He’s increased his usage rate to 40.9% in eight games without Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis, resulting in an average of 62.38 DraftKings points per game.
Doncic has gotten significantly more expensive of late, but he still has merit if you can afford him. He owns the second-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models.
Value
Ish Smith continues to look like a sound investment at $4,000 on DraftKings. He isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Hornets, but he has played at least 19.4 in three straight games. Smith is capable of averaging over 1.00 fantasy points per minute, so it’s not surprising that he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests. He doesn’t provide the biggest ceiling at this salary, but he should be able to return value.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry is priced down across the industry, and he’s sitting at just $5,600 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and it’s hard not to love Lowry at that price tag. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.56 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool), and he draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Hornets. The Heat are also still without Tyler Herro, giving Lowry a bit more upside than usual.
Reggie Jackson is another point guard with an elite matchup on Thursday. He’s taking on the Rockets, and the Clippers lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.0 points. Jackson has scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again in this spot.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The stud options at shooting guard are a bit limited, so going with someone like Seth Curry makes a lot of sense. He’s scored at least 34.25 DraftKings points in each of his first two contests with the Nets, and he should serve as one of the team’s top offensive options vs. the Wizards. Kyrie Irving is ineligible to suit up since this game is in Brooklyn, while Ben Simmons is still not ready to play.
Value
Eric Gordon has the potential to be one of the best values of the day. He’s been priced down to just $3,800 on DraftKings, and there’s a chance that the Rockets will be shorthanded for the second straight game. We’re still waiting on the team’s injury report, but they were without Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood on Wednesday.
With both players out of the lineup, Gordon racked up 28.0 DraftKings points over 38.3 minutes. He also shot just 8-24 from the field and 3-14 from 3-point range in that contest, so he has the potential for a bigger performance on Thursday. The Clippers are a tough matchup, but Gordon would be a tough fade if KPJ and Wood are out again.
Fast Break
Patty Mills is another option for the shorthanded Nets. He’s a bit cheaper than Curry across the industry, and he’s currently projected for more minutes in our NBA Models. He’s not quite as good as Curry on a per-minute basis, but that shouldn’t matter much vs. the Wizards.
Khris Middleton is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. Middleton is coming off back-to-back games with at least 36.4 FanDuel points, and he should benefit from the competitive projected game environment vs. the 76ers.
Small Forward
Stud
Kyle Kuzma has a massive price discrepancy on Thursday’s slate. He’s up to $9,000 on DraftKings – which accurately represents his recent production – but he remains significantly underpriced at $7,700 on FanDuel. The result is a Bargain Rating of 97%.
With that in mind, it’s hard not to lock Kuzma into your lineups on FanDuel. He’s taken over as the Wizards’ primary scoring threat with Bradley Beal out and Spencer Dinwiddie in Dallas. He’s scored at least 46.1 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and he posted a usage rate of 35.4% in his last outing.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another potential option for the Wizards. He’s coming off a monster outing in his last game, finishing with 40.25 DraftKings points over 34.2 minutes. That’s an outlier, but KCP has now posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% in four games without Beal and Dinwiddie, resulting in an average of 0.84 DraftKings points per minute. He’s significantly cheaper than Kuzma at $4,400 on DraftKings, and he’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram is an interesting buy-low option. His numbers have plummeted following the addition of C.J. McCollum, but so has his price tag. Ingram is still an extremely talented player, and he should command reduced ownership given his poor recent performances.
Jimmy Butler is questionable for approximately the 900th straight game, but he is expected to suit up vs. the Hornets. It’s a potential smash spot, with the Hornets ranking first in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the second of the “super studs” on Thursday’s slate, and he’s been playing some fantastic basketball recently. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last outing, finishing with 50 points and 14 rebounds vs. the Pacers. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
The only thing that has been able to slow him down recently has been a lack of playing time. The Bucks have played in their fair share of blowouts, limiting Giannis to 30.8 minutes or fewer in four of his past seven games. In the three games where he’s played full minutes during that stretch, he’s racked up 74.5, 82.0, and 75.75 DraftKings points.
The 76ers are a tough matchup, but the six-point spread could be a positive for Giannis. If this game stays competitive, he should be able to smash. He leads all players in our NBA Models in ceiling projection.
Value
The Clippers are a team to get some exposure to on Thursday, and Nicolas Batum stands out as one of their best options. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Batum is capable of doing damage in every category across the board. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Overall, Batum is too cheap at $4,200.
Fast Break
Bruce Brown is another player worth considering for the shorthanded Nets. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, including a 52-DraftKings point explosion two games ago. Brown has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a great bet to return value with an expanded role.
Jae’Sean Tate has been a consistent producer for the Rockets this season, averaging 0.97 FanDuel points per minute. He’s scored at least 30.0 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and the lone exception was a game where he struggled with foul trouble. He’s in play even if the team is at full strength, but he’s an elite option if KPJ and Wood are ruled out.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is the stud option worth considering at center. He’s coming off his worst performance in ages in his last outing, finishing with just 39.75 DraftKings points vs. the Celtics. Before that, he had scored at least 59.0 DraftKings points in 11 of his previous 12 games.
The big question is, how do you separate Embiid, Doncic, and Antetokounmpo on Thursday’s slate? Embiid owns the lowest marks in our NBA Models, but I would also expect him to carry the lowest ownership of the stud tier. That’s a major plus in guaranteed prize pools.
Value
Montrezl Harrell was one of the biggest winners from the trade deadline. He was stuck in a three-man timeshare in Washington, but his path to playing time with the Hornets is much clearer. He’s racked up at least 29.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and Harrell is capable of doing damage with that many minutes. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced at $5,300.
Fast Break
If you need a pure punt play at center, you could do worse than Isaiah Hartenstein. His minutes are volatile, but he has upside at $3,600 on nights where he plays more than expected. He’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to do damage.
Jonas Valanciunas is down to $6,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. Valanciunas has averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.28 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pelicans, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
