The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features seven games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
It is nearly impossible to get away from Russell Westbrook. He has three consecutive triple-doubles and 13 double-doubles in 14 March games. Despite being over $11,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, Westbrook has better than a 50% Bargain Rating on both sites.
Kyrie Irving could be in for a monster night with James Harden out (hamstring tightness). As we have seen with Kevin Durant missing extended time, the workload does not get spread out as much when superstars are out. Kyrie is the last man standing at this point.
Get the latest injury news and notes from around the league using the Labs Insider Tool.
Value
Kira Lewis has been fun to watch with guard minutes opening in New Orleans. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been getting his due respect stepping in for Lonzo Ball, but Lewis has been as good as the backup. His $3,700 price tag on DraftKings is worth the gamble as he pops as a top-10 guard option.
Fast Break
I really like Dejounte Murray and Derrick White against Atlanta this evening as long as they both play. The duo rarely cannibalizes each other’s value and both rate well using our NBA Model. Playing both is a way to be different with only half of the league playing.
Victor Oladipo is expected to play for Miami as they welcome Stephen Curry and Golden State to South Beach. The two have Leverage Scores above 95 and stick out for obvious reasons – illness in Oladipo’s case, and a sore tailbone for Curry.
The only game with a projected total under 218 points is Philadelphia-Cleveland. Injuries have taken a toll on both frontcourts and make players such as Ben Simmons and Darius Garland less appealing without trusted health inside.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Play Bradley Beal against the hodgepodge that is the Detroit Pistons guard rotation. Pistons G/F Josh Jackson was asked to do a lot against a loaded Portland backcourt Wednesday night and failed with flying colors. There is little hope he does anything defensively against the Wizards, making Beal a top stud to target. Beal is projected to have lower ownership than Jackson because of price and opportunity, so take advantage.
Value
Alexander-Walker continues to return excellent value while remaining around the $6,000 price range on both sites. NAW’s Usage Rate has been over 20% in all but two games in March and has a top three Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
Fast Break
Josh Hart is also eligible at shooting guard for the Pelicans and has been excellent. Hart is only $5,300 on FanDuel and has a top-five matchup against Orlando using Opponent Plus/Minus.
Paul George is expected to be out against Denver, which leaves Luke Kennard or Terrence Mann as options to get minutes alongside Reggie Jackson. I’ll take Mann because he has a better chance to not get swallowed alive on the defensive end because of Denver’s larger lineup.
Small Forward
Stud
If Aaron Gordon is guarding Kawhi Leonard, then Leonard to the moon! He has been every bit of a star without Paul George in the lineup. Leonard is the top overall play on FanDuel and a top-10 overall option on DraftKings.
I also have zero issue playing Brandon Ingram against Orlando. He leads the position with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and trails only Leonard on FanDuel.
Value
John Collins is out for Atlanta and the beneficiaries are Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari. Dual-position eligibility has lowered both of their projected ownership totals on DraftKings, while Bogdanovic’s $1,000 savings on FanDuel from Gallinari is projected to cause his ownership to spike. Play either with confidence.
Fast Break
Do not sleep on Rui Hachimura. He is $6,000 on FanDuel, has played at least 35 minutes in four consecutive games and has at least 37 fantasy points in three of four contests.
Gordon Hayward is 86’d in a good way against Brooklyn (food industry people will get the joke). Hayward is an 86% Bargain and Leverage play on FanDuel.
Hamidou Diallo is on a heater since returning from injury and has small forward eligibility on DraftKings. He is also a 95% Bargain on DraftKings at $5,100.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has a solid matchup with Larry Nance out for Cleveland. The only issue for Harris is Zion Williamson’s thumb. If that thumb keeps Zion out, expect Harris’ ownership to increase. Harris is already expected to push 30% on FanDuel and is expected to be atop ownership percentages with Williamson on DraftKings.
Value
Isaiah Hartenstein is going to get a chance at 20-30 minutes for Cleveland with Nance out. It is tough to not like double-digit rebound potential with assists and defensive stats at $4,000 on FanDuel. Hartenstein is only center eligible on DraftKings but is attractive at $3,700.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant came back to life Wednesday night against Portland and is a discount on both sites, bottoming out at $6,600 on FanDuel. It was good to see his usage get back to 30% after dipping earlier in the week.
I am not a fan of Marcus Morris with a projected matchup against Michael Porter Jr., but if he is your last man in at his price, you could do worse. He continues to see his minutes cross the 30-minute bar with ease.
Rudy Gay continues to get close to 10 field goal attempts per game and consistently scores double-digit points with enough rebounds and defensive stats to flirt with 30 fantasy points per night. Gay is only $4,400 on DraftKings and gets a weakened Atlanta frontcourt.
Center
Stud
If you choose to pass on Nikola Jokic, Clint Capela is in a smash spot against Jakob Poeltl and the Spurs. Poeltl has had defensive issues in March and has been torched regularly. Capela is the top option on DraftKings.
Value
Dwight Howard does not have to play against Jarrett Allen (concussion) and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among centers. If you want to fade Howard’s projected ownership, Nicolas Claxton is solid on DraftKings and Alex Len is expected to see little ownership in a good matchup against Detroit.
Fast Break
Back to Poeltl for a line. He has double-digit points in three straight games and has multiple blocks in three of his past four. Capela is susceptible to athletic centers, and Poeltl is athletic enough to give Atlanta a headache.
Mason Plumlee is a top-five play on both sites and is in the salary pricing black hole that DFS players tend to avoid.
Joel Embiid is out tonight but is expected to play Saturday. Always feels good to end with optimism.
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Pictured: Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook
