The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
It’s safe to say the days of Russell Westbrook as a reliable triple-double machine are behind us, at least while he’s starting in the same backcourt as James Harden. Westbrook is averaging 21.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.1 assists this season. Those aren’t exactly bad numbers, but they’re a far cry from the triple-double he averaged the past three seasons, and his fantasy ceiling is considerably lower these days because of it.
Westbrook is under expectations in 64% of his games over the past month. While Harden is exploding, he’s just not scoring as much. Westbrook has hit 50 fantasy points just twice in his last 12 games, and he has a slightly negative Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and probably won’t break out against Toronto’s tough defense.
Value
Lonzo Ball was a recommendation on Tuesday, and he disappointed with only six points, six rebounds and three assists. Still, Ball played over 30 minutes a second straight game and has been over 25% usage in three of his last five games. The numbers are coming again at some point, and Ball is a bargain salary. He leads all point guards at a +5.28 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and is even higher at +6.99 at DraftKings.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio is still working his way back from injury, too, and his salary is down after a rough game. But Rubio has exceeded expectations in 64% of his games over the past month, and he has a great matchup against a Pelicans squad with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.92. Rubio is producing at 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and has a +7.7 Projected Plus/Minus tonight.
Ben Simmons is another stud option if you want to pay up at the position. Simmons is at 1.14 FanDuel points per minute in a nice matchup against a porous Washington defense. Some 76er is sure to put up a big game against Washington, and Simmons could be your pivot if you’re staying away from Joel Embiid.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has to slow down at some point, right? Harden is coming off back-to-back 50-point games, and his salary is back over $12,000 at both sites — but does the price really matter if he keeps beating expectations? He’s over expectations in seven of his last 10 and 69% of his games over the last month. Nice.
The defending NBA champions can’t throw Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green at Harden anymore, but they’ll make his life difficult either way, and that’s why our models are lukewarm on his chances of another huge night. Still, at over 40% projected usage and 1.67 FanDuel points per minute this month, no one will blame you for playing him.
Bradley Beal doesn’t have quite Harden’s upside, but then again, who does? Still, Beal is a strong stud option and coming off a 42-point game, and he’s gone over 50 fantasy points in six of his last 13 games. He has a better matchup than you’d think with Josh Richardson out, and his usage should continue to be high without much help around him. Beal’s +7.84 Projected Plus/Minus is highest among all shooting guard options at DraftKings.
Value
Jrue Holiday remains one of my favorite not-quite-a-stud value options. Holiday leads all shooting guards at FanDuel with a +4.49 Projected Plus/Minus, along with 10 Pro Trends. He brings a high floor that plays well in cash games, and he’s been over expectations in five of his last seven games.
Fast Break
J.J. Redick has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards at both sites. The Pelicans continue to be undervalued as a whole, and Phoenix’s defense has regressed of late, so you’ll want to get a couple New Orleans players into your lineup.
Gary Harris also has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards at both sites. Our models continue to love Harris, but he’s exceeded expectations in only 36% of his games over the past month. If you’re picking a value option between these two, know that Harris is averaging 0.55 DraftKings points per minute over the past month versus 0.92 for Redick.
Small Forward
Studs
Hey look, another Pelican! Brandon Ingram is the only stud small forward on the slate, and he looks like a pretty strong option. New Orleans has both Kenrich Williams and Derrick Favors listed as questionable. If both miss again, that means more minutes for Ingram and more “big” minutes, too, with more opportunities for rebounds and easy buckets.
Ingram has been on fire all season at DraftKings, where he’s exceeded expectations an incredible 88% of his games all season, an average of 8.96 fantasy points above expectations. He’s a near must-start there at a +7.95 Projected Plus/Minus and still an excellent option at FanDuel’s +3.59, too.
Value
If you need a more moderately-priced option, Tobias Harris looks like your guy. The 76ers are playing Washington, so you absolutely have to get at least one Philly star in your lineup because you know the points will come. Harris has a +7.58 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings, where he gets an 87% Bargain Rating, and he’s top-three among small forwards at FanDuel, too.
Fast Break
Will Barton is another guy who continues to be undervalued. The People’s Champ is averaging 14.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists a game; he’s really been the only consistent fantasy threat on the Nuggets this year. Barton’s matchup against New York actually rates as a negative, but he’s still at a +6.33 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings. Small forward looks like the place to pay up for a couple names tonight.
If you need a cheap option instead, Philadelphia’s James Ennis is a good option. Ennis has seen his minutes go way up recently and should play a lot again with Richardson out. He costs only $3,700 with a Projected Plus/Minus of +4.97 or higher at both sites, so he’s a terrific bargain option.
Power Forward
Studs
You won’t need to spend much at power forward tonight, where Al Horford is as close as we’ll find to a stud option there. You know the drill by now with Sixers guys. Their big men could be even more valuable tonight as Washington looks like it could be missing all three of its center options, making an already juicy matchup even tastier.
Like real life, Horford is not the sexiest stud option. He’s a high-floor guy with a limited ceiling outburst, but he’s a reliable safe source of points if you need them. Horford is a much stronger option at DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary gives him more upside and a +5.62 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
It looks like Aron Baynes could be out again, so Frank Kaminsky will be back in a lot of lineups. Kaminsky is over 30 fantasy points in two straight and should keep it going against a weak Pelicans defense that’s likely missing Favors again. Kaminsky has a 91% Bargain Rating at FanDuel with an awesome +6.1 Projected Plus/Minus, and he’s a +3.09 at DraftKings, too.
Fast Break
Rui Hachimura will be a popular play tonight, and for good reason. With all of Washington’s centers potentially out, Hachimura could be one of their few big men. He’ll have his hands full against Horford and Embiid, but he should get a ton of minutes and usage if he can stay out of foul trouble. Hachimura has struggled over the past month after a fast start, but he’s a good scorer who should get a lot of opportunity.
Julius Randle is another semi-stud option if you want to pay a bit at power forward. He has 13 Pro Trends and a positive matchup against Denver. Randle has an 81% Bargain Rating at DraftKings and a +4.06 Projected Plus/Minus there, so he’s a far better play at DK if you do want to roll with him.
Center
Studs
This certainly looks like one of those monster Joel Embiid nights. Washington has no center to speak of, and I promise you Hachimura and Davis Bertans have absolutely no shot of stopping Embiid. He should be able to score almost any time he touches the ball, and he could rack up a ton of rebounds, too. The biggest threat to a big game might simply be Philly blowing the game open early.
Our models love Embiid tonight, with a monster +8.82 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings and tournament-winning upside if he explodes. Washington has a +4.24 Opponent Plus/Minus against centers, and that’s when they have their normal guys playing. Embiid could pick any stat line and hit it tonight.
Value
Embiid is the only real positive play at FanDuel, but Marc Gasol offers good value at DraftKings. Gasol’s numbers are way down this year at just 6.5 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, but he gets a great matchup against Houston, a +2.96 Opponent Plus/Minus. Gasol costs only $4,400 at DraftKings, an 87% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
The one center you need to keep an eye on tonight is Washington’s Moe Wagner. Wagner is questionable with a sprained ankle and may not exactly rush back to face Embiid, but he could be a matchup problem if he does play with his shooting and spacing. Wagner is over expectations in nine of his last 10 games and has a big +6.1 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, so he’s an excellent bargain option if he’s cleared to play.
You probably don’t want to play Clint Capela at his $9,400 FanDuel salary, but he’s a more reasonable $7,900 at DraftKings, where he’s gone over expectations in nine straight games. Capela is averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute over the last month and has at least 19 rebounds in eight straight games.
Photo credit: USAToday Sports
Pictured: Joel Embiid
