The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Trae Young leads the way among a slew of star point guard options, especially if you’re playing with DraftKings’ positional flexibility. Young is playing through a calf injury but doing just fine, exceeding expectations in 10 of his last 13 games. The Hawks have won only twice in the last month and just got embarrassed by the Knicks, but there are no points for wins or pride in fantasy.
All that matters is that Young continues to put up monster numbers his sophomore season. And while you might hesitate a bit at a difficult Utah matchup, don’t forget that Mike Conley is out. The Jazz are expected to start Donovan Mitchell at point and start Royce O’Neale, but Young should still get more minutes than usual (if Conley had played) against backup PG Emmanuel Mudiay, so the matchup isn’t terrible. Young has 12 Pro Trends and is over a +2.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Value
It’s no secret Russell Westbrook has had a long-running rivalry with Patrick Beverley, so Russ should be on his game tonight against the Clippers. Gone are the halcyon days of nightly triple-doubles for Westbrook, but his salary is finally reasonable again and the numbers are still good, just not outrageous. Westbrook nearly matches Young’s ceiling for a more moderate price, and his 1.3 fantasy points per minute are better than Trae’s mark. Russ looks like a terrific play in a high-scoring game, especially at FanDuel with his position-best +5.18 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
A pair of opposing point guards are also nice options. Dejounte Murray is in a good spot against the Nets, who offer a tasty +4.22 Opponent Plus/Minus. Murray isn’t typically a big scorer, but he’s had at least 14 points in three of his last four, exceeding fantasy expectations in all of them. Murray is an especially strong DraftKings play, with an 81% Bargain Rating and a +6.02 Projected Plus/Minus.
Murray’s opponent is Spencer Dinwiddie, who continues to push for an All-Star spot with Kyrie Irving sidelined. Dinwiddie is averaging 24.3 points and 7.4 assists in 16 games without Kyrie and should continue to produce big numbers at a moderate price.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Doesn’t it feel like everyone has stopped talking about James Harden a little? Pretty wild for someone averaging 38.9 points a game — and that’s real-life points, not fantasy points. Add in 6.0 boards and 7.4 dimes along with a usage just under 40% and you see why Harden is such a fantasy force.
So should you play the Beard tonight? Depends entirely on which site you’re playing. At DraftKings, Harden costs $12,400, which projects to almost 63 fantasy points just to come out even. He looks like a big time fade there, especially on a star-studded night. Harden’s a full $1,000 cheaper at FanDuel, with a whopping 98% Bargain Rating, and has a huge +4.46 Projected Plus/Minus there and his usual tournament-winning ceiling.
Value
Donovan Mitchell is in a great spot to put up a monster night. Spida should get the bulk of the point guard minutes with Conley out. Mitchell’s averaging career-highs in points and rebounds, so a few more assists running the offense and a great spot against Atlanta’s leaky defense could see huge numbers for Mitchell. He’s over a +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and is another excellent shooting guard option.
Fast Break
Someone’s going to have to step up with Eric Bledsoe out, and our models like Khris Middleton. Middleton had a miserable game against the Mavs his last time out, but that helps limit his salary. The Lakers are a bad matchup for him with a tough defense and slow pace, but our models see 25% usage for Middleton and a ton of scoring opportunities, rating him over +5.75 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. At a pretty moderate price tag, he looks like a great pivot on a top-heavy night.
You should probably pay for at least one of those three, but Garrett Temple is a nice option if you’re skimping. Temple has a 92% Consistency Rating this month, so you know exactly what you’re getting at a bargain price.
Small Forward
Studs
Most players are probably going to grab one of the MVP candidates in tonight’s marquee matchup. Our models think Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best play, even with his immense price tag. Seven years into his NBA career, Giannis has increased his scoring and rebounding numbers every season.
Antetokounmpo has actually fallen short of expectations in six of the last eight games, so you might catch some recency bias fade on him when the reality is that’s only given him a more playable salary. Our model has Giannis at a +6.83 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings and +9.74 on FanDuel with a ceiling over 80 points at both sites. You just can’t afford to leave numbers like that out of your lineup.
If you do leave Giannis out, it’s because you think LeBron James and Anthony Davis will shut him down and dominate in the biggest game of the season thus far. LeBron benefits from a +1.87 Opponent Plus/Minus and a huge +4.3 pace differential (where Giannis is hurt in both those areas). The difference? Giannis is averaging 1.87 fantasy points per minute this season, up to 1.94 over the last month even with this weaker two-week stretch. LeBron is “only” at 1.5 on the season. Our models think LeBron is a very good play, too, but Giannis is just producing numbers at a whole other level right now and is worth the extra money if you can find it.
Value
Joe Ingles has really struggled to get it going after signing his extension, but he’s finally putting up numbers of late, exceeding expectations in five straight. Ingles is handling the ball more with Conley sidelined and should see a higher usage and a continued boost in his assist numbers, and he’s in a great spot against Atlanta. He’s an excellent play at both sites, but especially at FanDuel with his +7.46 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Paul George is in the stud section most nights, but there are just too many other bigger names available tonight. He’s in an awesome spot against the Rockets with a +4.02 Opponent Plus/Minus and has a +3.63 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings, where he could be a sneaky pivot if you want to fade both stars in the Lakers-Bucks game.
Taurean Prince has seen a drop in his scoring, but he’s hit double-digit rebounds in three of his last five games and has at least four assists in five of his last eight. Those sort of all-around numbers give him a nice floor, especially if the scoring hits in a good spot against the Spurs. He has a 77% Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Power Forward
Studs
Another position, another couple studs. Anthony Davis is yet another guy who could be worth the price of admission tonight. He looks like a problem matchup for the Bucks, and he benefits from a +4.3 pace differential. The key with Davis is his health. Right now he’s listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If Davis looks like a full go, he’s a good play and a great one at FanDuel with a +7.95 Projected Plus/Minus. If Davis is ruled out, be sure to keep an eye on names like JaVale McGee, who was one of the top last-minute plays Tuesday night with Brow sidelined.
Kawhi Leonard is one stud you can probably safely stay away from tonight, with so many other better options. Leonard has disappointed expectations in 62% of his games over the last month. His assist numbers are down, and his scoring has been very inconsistent. Leonard has only two 50-point fantasy games in the last month. Our models still think he’s a solid play, but there are too many better stud options.
Value
P.J. Tucker has been a pretty consistently safe play this season. You’re not getting the huge ceiling, but he’s going to continue to play huge minutes and rack up complementary numbers out there along with the occasional bucket. Tucker has at least nine rebounds in six of his last eight games. He has a Projected Plus/Minus over +3.3 at both sites and looks like a good bargain play if you’re spending at other positions.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge could have a big time scoring night. He’s in a great spot against the Nets, who offer a +4.34 Opponent Plus/Minus at the position and don’t really have anyone to bang with LMA. Aldridge has exceeded expectations in six of eight games and looks like a nice cash play, especially at FanDuel.
Jarrett Allen is one of the guys trying to stop Aldridge tonight, and he could be a great play if he stays out of foul trouble. Allen has double-digit rebounds in all but one of his last 12 games and has the athleticism to give the Spurs trouble. He’s a better play at FanDuel with a +6.51 Projected Plus/Minus and is a great option if you want to buy a cheap power forward and spend big elsewhere.
Center
Studs
Clint Capela is in a great spot tonight against a Clippers team without a good traditional center. Capela has been an absolute beast on the boards this season with a career-high 14.7 rebounds per game. He’s a walking double-double. Despite his production, Capela costs only $7,600 at FanDuel, not even ahead of Rudy Gobert (we’ll get back to him). Capela is a stud at a moderate price with a monster +7.71 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Rudy Gobert actually looks like the stronger play. Gobert has struggled to find chemistry at times with Conley, but he could see some increased scoring and opportunity with Mitchell running the offense. Gobert benefits from a +2.8 pace differential against Atlanta and no one who can really stop his roll there. His +7.12 Projected Plus/Minus nearly matches Capela’s at DraftKings, and he’s an outrageous +9.65 at FanDuel. There’s so much to spend on tonight, but getting one of these two centers into your lineup could be a winning decision. They look like better investments than the more high-priced power forward studs.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell has been a strong play all season and should continue to be tonight against his old team. The Rockets are a great matchup for Harrell with no one who can match his energy in the post, and he’s at a +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus or better at both sites. He’s a strong play who comes a little cheaper than Capela or Gobert if you need it.
Alex Len looks like your bargain play if you’re out of cash. Len has a tough matchup against Gobert but has produced 1.17 fantasy points per minute over the past month, an uptick in production. Len costs $4,500 or less with a Projected Plus/Minus over +5.0 at both sites, so he’s an excellent bargain option, even if the ultimate upside is limited.
