The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.
It may be a studs-and-duds kind of night. There are a number of quality cheap options on the board, while the studs look especially good today. You may want to fit three, even four of the stars from tonight’s slate into your lineup and fill up the rest of your lineup with bargain options.
Point Guard
Studs
Almost no one in the NBA has had a hotter start to the season than Luka Doncic. He is averaging 28.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists a game and already has four triple-doubles. Doncic is recording a whopping 1.68 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, and he has an awesome +8.09 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Doncic is producing against every team, and the Knicks certainly won’t be an exception. Luka is a far better DraftKings play at $10,000, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating. He’s not a bad play at FanDuel at $11,200, or anywhere in the world for that matter, but DraftKings is the better play.
Will Doncic always be linked with Trae Young? It’s starting to feel that way as Young has been nearly as hot, putting up 28.0 points and 8.7 assists a game. Those numbers aren’t entirely fair, since they include the game Young left early with an injury. Take that one out and suddenly Young is averaging 30.9 points and 9.5 dimes. That injury game plus a recent clunker against Chicago kept Young’s salary quite in check, despite the hot start.
Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11).
Young has a difficult matchup against Ricky Rubio, and that could scare many away, especially with Doncic as an alternate option. Don’t be scared. Atlanta will need more than ever from Trae with most of his backcourt mates out injured, along with John Collins. Our models project Trae at an even higher ceiling than Luka, and at a bargain price. Young has an awesome +9.15 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and an astounding +12.16 at DraftKings. He could be a tournament winner.
Value
Eric Bledsoe is one of a number of options you’ll want to consider tonight in the first Milwaukee game without Khris Middleton. Giannis Antetokounmpo can’t do everything (or can he?), so Bledsoe may be expected to pick up a lot of the scoring slack. Bledsoe has 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.52. He could be an intriguing pivot if you spend up elsewhere and can’t afford Doncic or Young.
Fast Break
George Hill is another Bucks option. Hill is a cheaper option but has much less upside, though he occasionally spikes with a relatively big fantasy game. At 0.9 fantasy points per minute, Hill is a cheap volume play.
Frank Ntilikina has been logging a lot of minutes of late, and he has exceeded projections in five of his last seven games. His production is starting to tick up, but his salary hasn’t caught up yet. With a Projected Plus/Minus over +6 at both sites, he’s one of those strong bargain options tonight.
Shooting Guard
Studs
As hot as the Phoenix Suns have been, you’d think Devin Booker must be having a monster season. Booker’s shooting numbers are scorching, but his counting numbers (the ones that matter in fantasy) are all down from last season. Booker has more help this year and just doesn’t have to do quite as much. That’s good for Phoenix but bad for DFS. Booker has come up short of our projections in six of 10 games.
Having said that, Booker has a +2.08 Opponent Plus/Minus in a very favorable matchup against Atlanta, and the upside for a huge night is always there. It just hasn’t happened yet this season, and his price tag does not reflect it. Booker looks like a fade at -4.43 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, though he’s a bit better at DraftKings.
Value
Caris LeVert is out several weeks, while Kyrie Irving is questionable with a right shoulder impingement and plays in a later game, so you may not know his status before setting your lineup. If Irving is out too, that would give Spencer Dinwiddie an unusual amount of upside.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sport. Brooklyn Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie (8).
Dinwiddie posts his best numbers with his most time on the ball, and he has a +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel even with Kyrie possibly playing. He’s a nice gamble with a stable floor and an unusually high ceiling for his salary.
Fast Break
We said there would be a lot of Bucks options, right? This is the most obvious position of opportunity since it represents the most direct minutes replacement with Khris Middleton out. Our models think Pat Connaughton is the optimal play. He plays for the minimum on FanDuel and gets a +5.78 Projected Plus/Minus there, along with a 75% Bargain Rating.
Wes Matthews is the other Bucks option here. He also plays for the minimum on FanDuel and projects at slightly higher minutes than Connaughton (26.2 to 24.5), but he produces far fewer fantasy points per minutes. He’s a FanDuel option but a fade at DraftKings with a -1.25 Projected Plus/Minus at his $4,200 salary.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo is somehow even better than ever this season. The Greek Freak’s averages of 29.7 points, 14.3 boards, and 6.8 assists are up even higher than ever, all career highs. The reigning MVP is off to another outstanding campaign. Giannis is scoring a whopping 1.93 points per minute at DraftKings, and he checks in at +9.86 Projected Plus/Minus. It’s pretty insane to have that sort of potential and value, even at $11,700.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34).
For all the other Bucks you may want to consider with Khris Middleton out, it might just be Giannis in the end picking up an even bigger load. It’s not like the Bulls have anyone to slow him down, especially with Otto Porter out. Antetokounmpo costs $12,400 at FanDuel but still has a +9.34 Projected Plus/Minus there too. It’s gotten to the point that you have to have a pretty good reason to leave Giannis out of your lineup, and with such a positive matchup and so many good bargain plays, there just isn’t a great reason tonight.
We’d be remiss not to mention Paul George, likely making his Clippers debut Thursday night. There’s no way to know what PG will look like, how many minutes he’ll play, or how he’ll produce in his new jersey. George has a -3.41 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, so if you do want to take the risk, he’s a far better dice roll at DraftKings.
Value
Kenrich Williams is not exactly a household name, but he’s quietly become a reliable role player for the Pelicans. Williams produces when on the court, and he’s been on the court a lot lately with so many Pelicans injuries. Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart are out again, and Brandon Ingram is questionable. Williams projects at 32 minutes, and at 0.9 fantasy points per minute, that gives him a +5.99 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and makes him a good bargain option at $4,700.
Fast Break
Joe Harris is another name that should benefit from the Brooklyn injuries, with LeVert out and Kyrie ailing. Harris isn’t a big fantasy producer since he’s so reliant on threes and points, but he should see more minutes and shots. He has a +3.86 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Kelly Oubre is having a breakout season for the Suns, though he was invisible his last time out against the Lakers. That’s six straight games under our projections for Oubre, but it also means he comes at a bargain $5,500 salary on FanDuel, giving him a reasonable 23.75 implied points. He should have a good chance to meet or clear that bar with quality upside.
Power Forward
Studs
You know Kristaps Porzingis has had this date circled since the moment he was traded, if not before. Porzingis finally returns to New York tonight in his only visit of the season, and he’s wearing a different uniform this time. Porzingis’ numbers are similar to his career rates, but he’s had an up-and-down season and is coming off a miserable 1-for-11 night against Boston in which he had more turnovers (5) than points (4).
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6).
That down game and his brief injury prior have given Porzingis a bargain salary for this revenge game. KP already played the Knicks a week ago and put up one of his biggest games of the season, with 28 points and nine rebounds. At just $6,900 at FanDuel, he has huge 50-point upside, and you know Dallas will want Porzingis to look good in front of the Knicks crowd. They’re likely to feed him early and often.
Value
JaMychal Green continues to produce, and yet he continues to be overlooked in fantasy. Green is scoring just under one fantasy point per game when on the court, and he has seen an increased minutes load of late with the Clippers cycling through so many injuries. Green has a +1.61 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pelicans, and that helps him to a +7.52 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel. He is an excellent bargain play if you’re going studs and duds.
Fast Break
Our models continue to love Lauri Markkanen, even though he continues to underproduce projections. Lauri is down to just $6,000 at DraftKings and gets a +6.59 Projected Plus/Minus there. He’s going to break out one of these games, and he’ll be a tournament winner when he does.
Derrick Favors is healthy again, maybe for the first time this season, but his salary is still rebounding. Favors has played over 29 minutes in two straight games with a double-double in each. He has a +6.2 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings and comes at an 87% Bargain Rating, plus he has center eligibility there too.
Center
Studs
We’re still waiting for that huge Nikola Jokic breakout game,and perhaps it will come tonight against the Nets, where Jokic gets a monster +5.41 Opponent Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The Nets went out and got DeAndre Jordan this summer, but neither he nor Jarrett Allen have been able to handle opposing centers.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15).
Jokic will be a strong consideration at his $8,600 DraftKings salary, an 85% Bargain Rating. He can always blow his projections out of the water, and he has 12 Pro Trends. But Jokic will be a popular play, and with other strong stud options out there, he could actually be a name to fade while others hunt his breakout.
Value
Alex Len is probable with a sprained ankle but expected to play in Phoenix. He’s coming off his biggest fantasy game of the season and still checks in under $4,000 at both sites. He’s over +6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and is another strong bargain option if you’re playing studs elsewhere.
Fast Break
If the season ended today, Aron Baynes would legitimately be in consideration for All-NBA. He has been a strong, steady fantasy producer. He doesn’t have a huge upside but has developed a pretty safe floor. He has a +4.53 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Our last option today circles back for one more Buck, Brook Lopez. BroLo is one more Milwaukee player that could take a few more shots with Middleton out. Lopez is a better play at DraftKings, where he has a 71% Bargain Rating.
