The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
After a long summer of speculation, we finally get to see Russell Westbrook in a Rockets uniform. No one knows yet what Russ will look like next to James Harden, but we have no shortage of evidence that point guards under Mike D’Antoni are fantasy gold. Westbrook gets a tough matchup out of the gates in Eric Bledsoe and a Milwaukee defense that ranked first in defensive efficiency last year. Our FanDuel projection has him just a hair ahead of his salary, but that still gives him the second-highest mark at PG.
Your other stud option is Stephen Curry, whose team will look a lot different this season. Kevin Durant is gone and Klay Thompson is sidelined, so only Steph and Draymond Green remain to open the Warriors’ account at the Chase Center. Curry could see career-high usage this season with so little help around him. His previous high was 32.6% in 2015-16, when he scored 30.1 points per game and won MVP unanimously with one of the greatest offensive seasons in NBA history.
Curry’s efficiency may drop with less help around him, but he should be in for a monster fantasy season. You can bank on him putting on a show in the new arena. He’ll likely be the preferred option for most users at the position: Our models give him the highest Projected Plus/Minus despite the high price tag.
Value
Patrick Beverley was everywhere in the opener, and he gets first crack at a new-look Warriors defense that looks more than a little susceptible with Curry and D’Angelo Russell at guard. Beverley is a real value at just $4,600 on DraftKings, and with so many studs at other positions, he’s a great option if you need to skimp at PG. That salary gives him an implied score of 20.41, but we project him at 25.5 with a ceiling of 36.5. He’ll be a popular play.
Fast Break
If you want to go against the grain, Reggie Jackson is a high-leverage option. Jackson struggled in the opener and played only 20 minutes, but he has a sweet matchup against Trae Young and a terrible Hawks defense that leaked points to opposing guards last season. Jackson has projected ownership of just 9-12% on FanDuel with a potential ceiling over 42 fantasy points, so he could pay off in a huge way.
Trae Young dazzled this preseason and finished his rookie season strong, averaging 24.7 points and 9.2 assists a game after the All-Star break. Detroit has a stout defense, but Young should get some minutes against Derrick Rose, so that always helps. He’ll look to start his sophomore year strong. With Curry and Westbrook on the slate in good spots, Trae could go under the radar, which makes him intriguing in tournaments with his high projected ceiling.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is coming off a monster season in which he scored over 36 points a game, racking up 58.5 FanDuel points per game with an impressive 86% Consistency Rating. But that was last season, and now Westbrook is in the picture.
So what will Harden look like next to Westbrook? That remains to be seen. You can certainly expect his usage to drop from the insane 40.5% he posted last year, but it will still be one of the highest in basketball. Harden also debuted yet another tool in his arsenal this preseason: a step-back one-foot 3-pointer. Perhaps he’ll be more dangerous than ever.
Harden is never really a bad play, but it’s a tough spot tonight. He and Westbrook will figure things out eventually, but it could be a bit of a learning curve starting out, especially against last year’s league-best defense. He’s probably not the preferred stud option in cash games with Steph and Andre Drummond so cheap, but Harden can always explode in tournaments.
Value
Tony Snell and Derrick Rose are expected to be popular chalk options at SG on FanDuel. Snell is dirt cheap at $3,500, while Rose is more moderately priced at $5,500. Rose had 18 points and nine dimes in the opener and may be the better play with his 40% Leverage Rating. You’ll want to get some Pistons in your lineup tonight against a weak Atlanta defense, though you should probably stay away from playing Jackson and Rose together.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell is coming off an All-Star season and will look to make a splash in his Warriors debut. Russell’s usage may drop from a year ago, but that should be more than offset by the easy looks he’s sure to get from both Curry and Draymond. Remember, the Warriors are missing both Durant and Klay, so there’s plenty of usage and scoring to go around. Russell has our top SG rating on FanDuel.
Lou Williams is another nice option at $6,900. Sweet Lou filled it up with 21 points, five boards and seven assists in the opener, and it’s clear his role will be the same as always: come off the bench and smash. Williams averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute last year and should be a safe, high-usage play while Paul George remains sidelined.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the reigning MVP, and he’s the favorite to win it again this year. The Greek Freak had a monster season in both fantasy and real life, but he could be even better this fall. Antetokounmpo began hitting 3s near the end of last season, so that’s one boost. Giannis also dropped under 33 minutes a game last season after averaging around 36 a game the previous two years, thanks to the Bucks being so good that he didn’t have to play as many minutes.
This year’s Bucks may need more from Antetokounmpo with Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic gone, and he’ll have a heavy load in a tough matchup against the Rockets. Every minute is valuable with Giannis, who led all scorers with an insane 1.73 DraftKings points per minute last season. That gives Antetokounmpo a higher ceiling than ever, and even at $12,200, he has our highest DraftKings rating among SFs.
Your other stud SF option is Kawhi Leonard. The Warriors don’t have anyone even remotely prepared to guard Kawhi, so he should post his usual robotic numbers. Leonard is projected at only 21-25% ownership on FanDuel, so that makes him a high-leverage play if you choose to fade Antetokounmpo but still invest big at SF.
Value
If you’re paying for studs elsewhere, DeAndre’ Bembry looks like a strong value play at SF. The Hawks should split their forward minutes between Bembry, Jabari Parker and rookies De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. Bembry is the only one who’s played with the Hawks before so he should see solid minutes. Bembry is not a big producer per minute, but he has our second-highest SF rating at both FanDuel and DraftKings and should be a decent value play at just $3,200 on the latter site.
Fast Break
Glenn Robinson III is another cheap value play. We project GRIII to play 28 minutes as the starting SF for the Warriors. Robinson averaged only 0.61 FanDuel points per game last year but should get more open shots on the Warriors. He’s our top-rated SF at FanDuel with the lowest salary at the position, just $3,500.
Luke Kennard will come as no surprise at this point. He’s another good Pistons option against the Hawks and is coming off a huge night in Indiana. Kennard hit six 3s and made eight free throws, scoring 30 points off the bench.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins is the most expensive PF play at FanDuel, though he’s a low-end “stud” at $8,300. He averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute and was close to averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds a game last season. He should benefit from Blake Griffin’s absence and projects at pretty high usage, though our system ranks him as just an average play given the other available studs.
Your other relative PF stud is Draymond Green. Green saw his usage jump from 13.1% in the regular season to 17.5% in the playoffs last year when Durant and then Thompson were sidelined. He should be expected to shoulder a larger role this season, with less help around him. The Warriors are shorthanded at center with Willie Cauley-Stein, too, so that could mean more center minutes for Draymond and translate into increased rebounding opportunities.
Value
Speaking of the Warriors, Marquese Chriss could be one of the more popular punt plays tonight. The Warriors cut Alfonzo McKinnie this week to keep Chriss around, and they’re so thin right now that Chriss is sure to see minutes. We project him around 21 minutes, which makes him quite a bargain at his minimal $3,200 DraftKings price tag.
Fast Break
P.J. Tucker will be a popular middle option at PF. Tucker should play heavy minutes among PF options, but he averaged just 0.65 FanDuel points per minute last season. He’ll be far more important on defense than offense tonight as he should get first crack at defending Antetokounmpo. If that leads to foul trouble, it could curb his value.
Jabari Parker is another potential value play. Parker projects as a low-ownership option and high-leverage play if you expect him to play big minutes early on instead of Atlanta’s rookie forwards.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond is the most expensive option at C, coming off a monster opening night in Indiana. Drummond had 32 points and 23 rebounds against a tough Pacers interior, and he should find things even easier against a soft Atlanta defense.
Drummond averaged 1.39 FanDuel points per game last season, and his numbers are even higher when Blake Griffin is sidelined, as he is now. Against Indiana, Drummond posted 81.6 FanDuel points. Drummond’s $10,300 price tag at FanDuel implies 47.34 FD points, but we have him projected at 55.5 with a potential ceiling of 76.8 if he goes off for a second straight night.
Value
Montrezl Harrell is my favorite prop play for Thursday night, and he looks like a strong DFS option as well. Harrell and Drummond have the top two C ratings at both FanDuel and DraftKings, and both sites have yet to catch up to what we project as a larger role for Harrell this season. Harrell averaged 26.3 minutes a game last year but played 38 in the opener, and we project him at 31.4 tonight. Harrell has always been productive when on the court, so more minutes than expected should make him a strong play until the salary catches up.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez joined the ranks of the unicorns last year, posting 187 threes and 179 blocks on the season. Lopez was a difficult matchup for many teams, pulling the center away from the rim, and he could find himself open often against Clint Capela for just that reason. BroLo is a high-leverage play with just 9-12% expected ownership on FanDuel.
Alex Len is another solid middle option at $5,900 on FanDuel. He averaged 1.1 FanDuel points per game last season and has an 85% Leverage Rating since he’s so off the radar at just 5-8% projected ownership. Len should see a minutes boost with Dewayne Dedmon in Sacramento this season, and Atlanta will need him out there to bang with Drummond. He looks like a sneaky play.
Photo credit: USAToday Sports
Pictured: Stephen Curry
