The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Tonight’s stud point guards go head-to-head, with newly minted All-Star starter Trae Young the slightly better fantasy play. It’s certainly a difficult matchup against Philadelphia, but Young has been mostly matchup-proof and has been hot in January, exceeding expectations in 71% of his games with an average +3.52 Plus/Minus. He’s over a +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and looks like a strong lineup-topper.
His opponent in Ben Simmons is not far behind. It’s a much better matchup in Simmons’ favor against Atlanta, but at a similar price and slightly lower numbers in our model, it’s a good time to remember Simmons’ more muted upside with Joel Embiid back and stick with Young against him. Don’t rule out a big game from Simmons against the guy who kept him out of a starting All-Star spot, though.
Value
It’s a nice spot for De’Aaron Fox, who has finally found his scoring boots over the past month. Fox gets a +1.37 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Clippers, along with a +4.6 pace differential. He’s had seven 40-point fantasy games in January and is over a +3.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
Monte Morris remains an easy bargain option with Jamal Murray out. It’s not a great matchup against Utah, but Morris is an especially good play at FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating and +7.96 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Patrick Beverley is probable to return, and he’s exceeded expectations in seven of his last nine and left hurt in one of the other two. He’ll never offer big upside, but at $4,900 and over a +1.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he’s an easy play.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bradley Beal is a much stronger play at FanDuel with an 89% Bargain Rating and a +4.95 Projected Plus/Minus there. Charlotte is a relatively neutral matchup, but Beal has been super hot with at least 36 points in four straight games, going over 47 fantasy points in each of them.
Value
Donovan Mitchell remains blazing hot, exceeding expectations in six of his last seven games. He has 11 Pro Trends tonight and should stay hot, even in a tough matchup against Denver. At over a +5.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, Spida is one of the best plays on the slate. He could turn out to be an even better play if he gets snubbed for the All-Star game and plays tonight with a chip on his shoulder.
Fast Break
Kevin Huerter has gone over expectations in 67% of his games for the month, though he has an Upside Rating of just 27% right now. Don’t expect a huge game, but at over a +4.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he looks like a very solid bargain option.
D’Angelo Russell is a nice higher-end option if you need a little more upside. DLo will have his hands full against the Celtics but should hold his own against Kemba Walker. He’s over a +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and has a 95% Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Small Forward
Studs
Our models are not loving either stud small forward option tonight. Pascal Siakam is the safer option, though Cleveland has actually been a slightly negative fantasy matchup at his position. Siakam has struggled to post the numbers he had earlier this season, though he’s now gone over expectations in four straight. Our models have Siakam as a negative play, but it’s a nice leverage spot if you think he continues his upward trend.
Our models are fading Paul George, too. PG is probable to return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out most of January, but hamstrings are always tricky; it’s probably wise to see what George looks like before playing him. He could be on a minutes limit or could spend the time before All-Star break working his way back into shape.
Value
Our computers actually prefer a former Clipper instead in Tobias Harris. Someone on Philadelphia is sure to have a big game against Atlanta, and this is a nice spot for Harris, who should get a steady diet of open jumpers all night. At over a +3.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, Harris might have as much upside as anyone at the position tonight.
Fast Break
Will Barton has had an awesome season, but he’s in a tailspin right now with eight straight games under expectations. A matchup against Utah’s -1.35 Opponent Plus/Minus certainly doesn’t do him any favors, but Barton could be a sneaky bargain play again now that his salary is falling. He’s over a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and looks like one of the better plays in a light night at the position.
Young Troy Brown Jr. has been coming around for Washington, and we project him just over 30 minutes tonight in a nice matchup against Charlotte, perhaps picking up some playing time and usage with Jordan McRae sidelined. He’s slowed down after a scorching hot start to the month but should still be a solid bargain play, especially at FanDuel.
Power Forward
Studs
You don’t need anyone to tell you the Kings are a nice matchup for Kawhi Leonard, but beware his -4.6 pace differential could mute the soft matchup. Leonard could also be muted some by the expected return of both Beverley and George. Our models rate Kawhi as a negative play at DraftKings, but it’s a different story entirely at FanDuel, where he’s much cheaper and has exceeded expectations in seven straight games. He’s at a +3.48 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Value
The best play on the board tonight might be Serge Ibaka at FanDuel. Ibaka has back-to-back double-doubles with at least 35 fantasy points in each game, and his salary implies only 24.24 points tonight. Sure enough, we give Ibaka a +11.36 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, with a positive matchup against Cleveland only helping the cause. He could have another big game with Marc Gasol sidelined.
Fast Break
The power forward bargain options are tied directly to injury opportunity. Nemanja Bjelica has a great opportunity for a big game with Marvin Bagley out. He’s exceeded expectations in eight of his last 10 games with a whopping +10.22 per game in that stretch, and he’s over a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites again tonight.
John Collins could also be a strong play, though he’s got a much tougher matchup against the 76ers. Collins could get some extra playing time with both Alex Len and Bruno Fernando out, and he’s had some of his biggest games of the season over the past week. He’s also over a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic has seven straight double-doubles, exceeding fantasy expectations in five of those games. He’s picking up more of the load with all the Denver injuries and remains a strong stud option because of it. It’s a tough matchup against Utah and Rudy Gobert, but remember: tough matchups go both ways, and Jokic has often been a tough play for Rudy, too. Jokic is over a +4.9 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and has one of the best ceilings on the slate.
Joel Embiid is not our models’ favorite play tonight, but that could make him an interesting pivot. He’ll have an easy time against Atlanta, especially with Len and Fernando out, and Embiid often has his biggest games against completely overmatched opponents. He’s a much better play at FanDuel with an 87% Bargain Rating and a +4.45 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Value
Rudy Gobert could actually turn out to be the best value of the three studs. Gobert leads all centers at DraftKings with a +5.3 Projected Plus/Minus, thanks to a juicy matchup on his side at a +5.03 Opponent Plus/Minus against Denver. He’s not as sexy a play as Jokic or Embiid, but that could make him a very interesting tournament pivot in a really nice spot.
Fast Break
Marquese Chriss remains an easy bargain option at the position if you’re skimping. Chriss is over expectations in seven of his last 10 games with an average +5.10 mark, and he’s projected over 25 minutes again. That makes him a valuable bargain at under $5,000, even in a tough matchup against the Celtics.
Dewayne Dedmon is riskier, but he could pay off even more. Dedmon costs barely more than the minimum, but he’s in a juicy spot against the Clippers, who have bled points at center all season. Dedmon gets a chance at more minutes tonight with Bagley out, and the Kings could try to showcase him a bit a week before the trade deadline, too. Dedmon doesn’t have to do much to be worth his salary. He’s over a +4.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Photo credit: Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell
