Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
The Player Model looooooooves Russell Westbrook ($9,700). What else is new. It has loved him all season long, and he once again has the highest projection at the position. I get it, as Westbrook can triple-double on any given night. That said, I only like this recommendation if LeBron James doesn’t play, who is questionable as of the time of this writing. In two games without LeBron, Westbrook has gone for 59.5 and 64 DraftKings points with usage rates of 37.5% and 33.3%. In the three other games with Lebron, Westbrook scored fewer than 50 DraftKings points in all, with a low of 32.5. The usage rate was 30% or below in all three contests.
Value
I initially had Cade Cunningham written up here, but he’s been ruled out, so I will go to Cory Joseph ($3,700), who is only $100 more expensive. Joseph is coming off a game in which he played 27 minutes and produced 25.75 DraftKings points. He does have one game with 4 DraftKings points, and the other three were in the 12 to 15 range. That said, he should get playing time in the low-to-mid 20s today.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum ($7,700) is coming off his worst game of the season, a 14-point, 22.25-DraftKings performance. Prior to that, he went for at least 37 DraftKings points in all four games with three above 40 and a high of 57.5. He should bounce back today as the Hornets are fourth in offensive pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. They also boost the fantasy points per minute (FPPM) to shooting guards by 11%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell ($9,000) doesn’t always display the highest fantasy ceiling due to the nature of the Jazz offense. That said, the floor is high as he’s gone for at least 30 DraftKings points in every contest with two above 40. The usage rate is usually in the low-30% range and spiked up to 42.2% last week as the Jazz were losing to the Bulls. He gets a matchup with a Bucks team that is ninth in offensive pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Against shooting guards, they boost the FPPM by 4.47%.
Value
Anfernee Simons ($3,800) has played as few as 18 minutes and as high as 28 minutes. The usage rate has also had a wide range (16.6% to 27.8%). Regardless, he’s been a consistent fantasy producer. Simons has scored in double-figures four times and attempted at least 10 shots in four games. He’s scored at least 15 DraftKings points in every contest with a high of 29.75. That matchup is a good one as the Hornets are fourth in offensive pace, 26th in defensive efficiency, and boost the FPPM to shooting guards by 11%.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles ($4,600) is the antithesis of sexy, at least from a fantasy perspective. Sorry, Mrs. Ingles. The Player Model has him with the fifth-highest projection at the position. The usage rate hasn’t exceeded 20% in any contest, but he’s scored at least 19 DraftKings points in every game with three above 24 and a high of 30.75.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant ($10,500) is expensive, the Nets are heavily favored, and it’s a pace-down spot (DET is 28th in pace). That said, raw points matter on a small slate, and Durant has one of the best floor/ceiling combos on the slate. He’s scored at least 45 DraftKings points in every game this season with two above 50 and a high of 73.75.
Value
Pat Connaughton ($4,400) has been getting the playing time with all the injuries for the Bucks – at least 29 minutes in five of six games. He’s a low-usage player, so the ceiling is limited, but he can pop off once in a while. He went for 32.75 DraftKings points in the opener and has three games with at least 25. He can also go for 11.5, so this is not a slam dunk by any means, especially since the Jazz are 21st in pace and second in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200) is the sixth-highest projected small forward according to the Player Model. He’s scored double-digits in every game so far and produced at least 20 DraftKings points in all with two over 30. It’s a pace-up spot for the Jazz as the Bucks are ninth in pace. The key number is the 17.69% FPPM boost to small forwards for three-pointers. The Bucks defend inside out, protecting the rim first and foremost.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) is the most expensive player on the slate with the highest floor and ceiling projection. You get what you pay for. Everything comes down to lineup construction, and he is not popping in the optimal lineups, but raw points matter on a small slate. Decision, decisions. Giannis has gone over 60 DraftKings points three times this season with a high of 78.5. He also has three games under 50: decision, decisions.
Value
Kelly Olynyk ($5,400) has been fantastic this season. He’s scored double-figures in every game and scored at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last three, with a high of 43. The usage rate has been in the low-to-mid 20% range, but it’s been the defensive stats that have been most eye-opening. He has a steal in every game with two, two, and three in the last three games. He also has four blocks on the season.
Fast Break
Robert Covington ($4,400) is a low-usage player and has gone over 20 DraftKings points only once. He has not scored in double-figures yet and primarily makes his hay with rebounds and defensive stats. That said, the matchup and game environment are juicy today as the Hornets are fourth in offensive pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. Against power forwards, they boost the FPPM by a whopping 19.63%, with a 20.6% on three-pointers.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert ($8,400) has the second-highest projection at the position according to the Player Model. Interestingly, he and Giannis are the only two with a ceiling projection over 70 points. At first, I was worried that being matched up against Giannis would be a detriment for Gobert, but the more I thought about it, the better it is because he doesn’t have to worry about the outside shot as much compared to Brook Lopez. Therefore, he can stay in the paint and grab the rebounds and block shots.
Value
LaMarcus Aldridge ($4,800) has a wide range of outcomes. He can play 12 minutes and put up 11.25 DraftKings points as he did against the Heat two games ago or go for over 30 DraftKings points as he did twice so far this season. While the Pistons do play slow, they boost the FPPM to centers by 5.02%.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis ($9,600) seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle. For that, I apologize. He has three games with at least 50 DraftKings points this season and a high of 70.75. On any given slate, he can put up the most points because he can score from all three levels, grab rebounds, and contribute a plethora of defensive stats. The game environment should be a good one as both the Lakers and Rockets are second in offensive pace while Houston is 18th in defensive efficiency. Against centers, Houston boosts the FPPM by 13.61%.
