The FantasyLabs NBA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s NBA DFS slate features seven games from 7:30 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic is the NBA Model’s top-rated point guard on DraftKings and FanDuel. After sitting out Thursday night’s game, Doncic returned last night and put up a triple-double that included 20 assists. Even though Doncic was removed from the Mavericks’ injury report on Saturday, monitor his status to confirm full availability before rostering him against the Sacramento Kings.
Value
Lonnie Walker has been the beneficiary of Derrick White’s season-ending ankle injury. Walker has hit seven 3-pointers and scored 32 points over his past two games while attempting double-digit field goals. He has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has dual eligibility there.
Fastbreak
Walker’s teammate, Dejounte Walker, also has a 99% Bargain Rating and is a top-three option at point guard on DraftKings. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends and will be asked to put up another strong performance against the Philadelphia 76ers. His matchup against Ben Simmons is one of the best on the slate.
After a historic home loss on Saturday, Oklahoma City hopes to rebound vs. Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns. Paul could fly under the radar in terms of ownership and projects to be rostered less than Doncic and Murray, among others.
Monitor LaMelo Ball’s status following his return to the Hornets lineup on Saturday night. He played well in over 27 minutes on the court but should see rest in back-to-backs.
Get the latest news and injury updates with the ActionLabs NBA Insiders Tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jaylen Brown and Devin Booker have advantageous situations against the Portland Trail Blazers and Thunder, respectively. Portland vs. Boston has the highest projected game total on the slate, while the Suns have the highest projected team total. Brown is projected to score the most fantasy points at shooting guard and is a top-five shooting guard on DraftKings. Booker is the fourth-rated player overall on FanDuel.
Value
Seth Curry is healthy and seeing his minutes in the mid-20s, making his $4,000 or less salary tonight a target. He is not a sexy name but rates well in the FantasyLabs NBA Models and should not see a lot of ownership.
Fastbreak
Immanuel Quickley was also in play as the top value for Sunday evening’s slate, but his role has changed too much to sustain trust in his production. Quickley and the Knicks have a great matchup against Houston. If I was certain that Quickley would play around 25 minutes toinght, then I would roster him in most lineups, because I think he has the most upside in New York’s backcourt.
Marcus Smart has scored double-digit points in 13 consecutive games dating back to April 4.
Jalen Brunson’s five field goal attempts last night were the fewest attempted by him since April 14. He is a bounce-back target for me, especially if Doncic sits.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has one of the best matchups according to Opponent Plus/Minus. The Hornets do not have a wing defender that can stay with Butler, and I expect him to play 30 minutes or more after missing that benchmark last night. Butler has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Value
I would be willing to pay over $7,000 for R.J. Barrett. But fortunately, I don’t have to: Barrett’s player salary is $6,500 on both platforms. He has been one of the most highly-improved players on the Knicks — and furthermore in the entire NBA. Barrett’s development is not entirely surprising, because his top Correlation is with Julius Randle: The overwhelming favorite for Most Improved Player this season.
Fastbreak
Projecting blowouts is a fool’s errand, but when the Suns are favored by 15 points over the Thunder, it has to creep into roster construction. Cameron Johnson is probable for Phoenix and could get run once the starters get theirs. Johnson may be the salary-saving option in your lineup that enables you to roster another stud elsewhere. Johnson projects for more than 20 fantasy points at an affordable salary.
Tobias Harris is one of numerous 76ers whose fantasy production has dipped due to blowout wins. The Spurs are not one of those opponents that will fold, so expect Harris to meet and exceed expectations vs. San Antonio.
Buddy Hield’s hot shooting finally cooled on Friday, but Hield will continue to shoulder a large scoring responsiblity for Sacramento with Harrison Barnes doubtful against Dallas.
LeBron James is questionable to play vs. Toronto. Normally, I would normally ignore that questionable designation, but James has only played once after a lengthy hiatus, so confirm his status prior to tipoff.
Power Forward
Studs
The dilemma between rostering Jayson Tatum or Julius Randle is real. Projections align the two, and there is little leverage in starting one over the other in smash spots. Price is the biggest difference for me. Tatum is more highly rated on DraftKings and is cheaper than Randle, while the opposite is true on FanDuel.
Value
Marvin Bagley III played 20 minutes in his return from a fractured hand. He is the best player on Sacramento with De’Aaron Fox out, and the hope is that his minutes will increase in order to take advantage of Dallas’ front-court issues. Bagley is a top-three rated power forward on both sites.
Fastbreak
If James and/or Anthony Davis sits for the Lakers, then I have a lot more interest in Pascal Siakam. I want to buy his production dip, but know that James or Davis will not be defending him primarily.
Darius Bazley played more than 24 minutes in a 57-point loss. I think his role is secure regardless of game situation, which bolsters Bazley’s candidacy as a good pivot off more highly owned Suns and Celtics players.
P.J. Washington has played at least 32 minutes and scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. He has a 91% Leverage score heading into his matchup against the Heat.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid’s salary is under $10,000 on FanDuel, and he has by far the highest Usage projection among centers. I find it difficult to eschew paying up for Embiid in what will be his first “competitive” game in nearly a week.
Value
Nerlens Noel could be a double-double threat against Houston’s smaller lineup. He also should maintain a safe floor with his ability to accumulate steals and blocks. He is a top-10 play on both sites.
Fastbreak
Bam Adebayo is sliding under the radar as a sandwich-priced player on DraftKings. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four straight, and his production should not wane markedly down the stretch. Miami will continue to lean on Adebayo to keep the Heat in games as the team pushes towards the NBA Playoffs.
I would rather play Moses Brown over Deandre Ayton despite Ayton’s higher rating in the FantasyLabs NBA Model. Ayton has had difficulties producing in competitive games on one of the best teams in the league and could miss out on a scoring barrage against Oklahoma City. Brown must contribute for the Thunder to stay relevant in this game. Ayton is not the best defender, and Brown has shown he can rack up defensive stats.
