NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, March 21): It’s a Great Day to Pay for Point Guards

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday’s slate features six games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.

New offer from FantasyLabs: Get our NFL models and tools free when you sign up for the NBA monthly plan!

Point Guard

Stud

Today is a great day to pay up at the position. Luka Doncic travels to Portland to take on Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers in a smash spot. He is a top-two play at point guard on FanDuel and DraftKings.

The other game with elite guard options is Brooklyn-Washington. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Kyrie Irving all rate as top-five options on DraftKings, while Irving is the best point guard play on FanDuel. This matchup has a 246-point projected game total according to our Vegas Model. The next closest is Dallas-Portland at 230 points.

There will be high ownership numbers for majority of these point guards.

Value

The Lakers lost LeBron James for an indefinite period with a sprained ankle. That puts a lot of scoring pressure on Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell. Schroder is going to be a target going forward as his usage was already up with Anthony Davis out. Another way to save money at point guard is Alex Caruso, who is near minimum price on both sites against Phoenix. Caruso is a good enough facilitator to run into double-digit points and assists without having to see Chris Paul all game. Do not be surprised to see Caruso’s minutes overlap with Schroder’s in their first full contest without LeBron.

Fast Break

Targeting the guards in tonight’s Toronto-Cleveland game is a way to save money and get away from chalk. The issue with rostering any of Kyle Lowry, Fred Van Vleet, Darius Garland, and/or Collin Sexton is that none of them have the same triple-double upside of a Harden or Westbrook. Ceiling point projections has Sexton as the most likely to come close to the big four’s ceilings.

Chris Paul has failed to have a Usage Rate above 20 percent in two games this month. In each of those games he was two points shy of getting the double-double bonus. His ownership is going to be well below the chalk and should warrant your attention.

Elfrid Payton is questionable to return to the New York Knicks’ lineup against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Knicks continue to be shorthanded at guard and need any healthy bodies.

Get the latest news and notes on the NBA with the Labs Insider Tool.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Brooklyn Nets will not be confused with any defensive juggernauts, making Bradley Beal the lead dog at shooting guard. Beal can be your exposure to the Wizards while saving $1,500 on FanDuel and $1,400 on DraftKings by not rostering Westbrook. The league’s leading scorer leads the position on DraftKings with 11 Pro Trends and only trails Harden on FanDuel. No other shooting guard projects to have a higher Usage Rate than Beal.

Value

There are a few values at the two with Talen Horton-Tucker leading the way on FanDuel. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and is only $4,000. THT has shown his versatility with the Lakers and has received high praise from LeBron.

Continuing the Lakers theme, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has an opportunity to play 30 minutes and is a top-10 play on DraftKings.

If Ben Simmons remains out for the 76ers, Furkan Korkmaz is minimum price on FanDuel. Korkmaz has double-digit shot attempts in half of Philadelphia’s games in March.

Fast Break

Josh Jackson is not a true bargain, but his matchup against the Chicago Bulls is one to exploit. Zach LaVine is a dominant scorer but is a minus defensively. If Jackson slides to small forward, he should see a combo of Otto Porter and Patrick Williams, but I would imagine Williams focuses on Jerami Grant a majority of the game. Jackson also has a Usage Projection of 26.13, the highest among sub-$5,000 options on FanDuel and sub-$6,000 on DraftKings.

Norman Powell may see Isaac Okoro opposite him, which puts a small damper on his upside. I would much rather he line up against Okoro at the three than Fred VanVleet at the two. That’s something to remember with Powell having dual-eligibility on DraftKings.

Small Forward

Stud

Paying down at small forward is the way to go now that LeBron is out. The highest-priced players who are expected to play are Jerami Grant ($7,300 on DraftKings) and Powell ($7,800 on FanDuel).

Wizards head coach Scott Brooks wanted Rui Hachimura to score more, and the request has been met with fairly good results. Hachimura has at least 10 field-goal attempts in four straight games and has shot at least 50 percent during that same stretch. Thursday’s game was the only instance during the past four games in which he did not attempt a three-pointer and has attempted at least three in three straight.

Value

Not as much value with so many lower-priced options, but Cameron Johnson of the Suns is not on the injury report and should be eased back into his role with the Suns. If you want to go nuts and hope he plays 20-plus minutes, he is $3,300 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Saddiq Bey is going to command a lot of ownership after consecutive 20-point scoring efforts.

Carmelo Anthony has an underrated matchup against Dallas. He has a top-five matchup based on Opponent Plus/Minus and should not suffer from pace of play since Dallas is a neutral-paced offense. Anthony is projected to have less than 10 percent ownership.

Power Forward

Stud

Kristaps Porzingis has failed to meet projections in three straight games, but pops as the top power forward on both sites against the defensive black hole known as Portland. His past poor performances have been buoyed by his defensive presence, so expect blocks to help keep his fantasy point total respectable at worst.

Value

Markieff Morris is the top value on DraftKings but should see his ownership skyrocket. There are better options for value on his team, but he deserves a line about his expected exposure.

Maxi Kleber and Dario Saric are $3,800 on FanDuel and are stretch fours who have been salary savers in March. Kleber has been the more consistent player of the two and is a pivot off Porzingis. This may be Saric’s last chance to produce with Cameron Johnson back.

Fast Break

Tobias Harris and Julius Randle are top Leverage Score plays against each other but are hurt by their game’s 215 projected game total and their prices. Both should remain in your player pool especially in contrarian lineups where you pay down at guard.

Pascal Siakam has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. His projected matchup against Jarrett Allen does not scare me since Siakam’s athleticism and midrange game take away from Allen’s strengths in the paint.

Nicolas Claxton has averaged 1.24 Fantasy Points Per Minutes (FPM) and has the highest PER among power forwards on FanDuel.

Center

Stud

Montrezl Harrell has a chance to dominate against Deandre Ayton. Ayton has played poorly on both ends of the court and will have to deal with Harrell’s constant physicality. Harrell is an 88 percent bargain on DraftKings and has the best Leverage Score among centers on FanDuel.

Value

Alex Len and Robin Lopez of the Wizards are top-10 plays on FanDuel against Brooklyn. DeAndre Jordan has been inconsistent defensively and Claxton needs to play closer to 30 minutes to eliminate Len’s and Lopez’s effectiveness. Nets coach Steve Nash prefers smaller lineups, so playing one of those two with Hachimura could lead to a unique game stack with one or two Nets.

Fast Break

I wonder if Chris Boucher will play next to Siakam against Allen and the Cavaliers. If Raptors head coach Nick Nurse gives any hints to playing Boucher with the Raptors’ second unit, then he is a better play. He is the top center on DraftKings, while Allen is the top option on FanDuel.

Wendell Carter Jr. and Mason Plumlee match up well against each other as Chicago takes on Detroit. Part of Plumlee’s upside comes from Thaddeus Young and Lauri Markkanen playing center minutes, while Carter has responded well to coming off Chicago’s bench.

If Nerlens Noel gets moved to the Knicks’ bench, I am interested in rostering Dwight Howard against New York. Mitchell Robinson is questionable for the Knicks and would take away from Noel and Taj Gibson’s playing time, but would give Howard better matchups off the 76ers bench.

Photo Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Pictured: Kyrie Irving