The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
De’Aaron Fox is questionable to suit up for today’s matchup vs. the Detroit Pistons. That said, he was also questionable heading into Friday’s contest vs. the Grizzlies, and he finished with 42.3 FanDuel points over 33 minutes.
He’s an interesting option today if he’s able to suit up. He remains priced down on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. That represents a decrease of -$1,100 over the past month, and Fox has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.49 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
Value
Alex Caruso has developed a cult-like following among Lakers’ fans, but he’s actually been a pretty useful fantasy asset recently. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s also see a few additional minutes recently.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Pelicans. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, giving Caruso an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88 on DraftKings. The Lakers’ implied team total of 118.5 points also ranks second on the slate.
Fast Break
The Pistons have lost Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond this season, which leaves Derrick Rose to carry the offensive load. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 35.3% in four of his past five games, including a mark of 40.2% in his most recent contest. That’s a monster number considering his price tag of just $6,000 on FanDuel. His playing time is also on the rise as he gets further removed from his injury, and he’s currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models.
Shabazz Napier has benefited from his move to the Wizards. He’s played at least 24 minutes in each of his past three games, and it was very tough for him to see that kind of playing time with the Timberwolves. Napier has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most of limited playing time. The Wizards also lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.0 points.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal was a monster snub from the All-Star game, and he’s been doing his best to remind everyone every time he takes the court. He’s scored at least 42 points in three of his past four games, including back-to-back games with at least 53 points. Beal isn’t just a one-dimensional scorer either: He’s also averaging 4.4 rebounds and a career-best 6.0 assists per game.
The Warriors shouldn’t present much of a challenge for Beal. They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, and Beal leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Damion Lee stands out for the Warriors. He’s been an excellent fantasy option recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, yet his salary has barely budged over that time frame. He’s seeing plenty of playing time at the moment, and he’s averaged a stout 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
If you’re looking to go super-cheap at the position on FanDuel, you could do a lot worse than Svi Mykhailiuk. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, and he’s currently projected for 26.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, minimum-priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.83 on FanDuel.
Fred VanVleet is currently questionable to suit up for the Raptors after missing their last game vs. the Hornets. He has a tough matchup vs. the Nuggets even if he’s able to suit up, so most people will likely just cross him off their list and move on. That should result in reduced ownership, despite the fact that his salary has dropped all the way to $6,500 on FanDuel. VanVleet has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.49 with a comparable salary this season, so he’s an interesting buy-low candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James headlines today’s slate, and he continues to produce at an elite level in his 17th NBA season. He’s averaged 54.83 DraftKings points per game this season, which is the fourth-highest mark of his career. He’s on pace to lead the league in assists per game, and he continues to score the ball at an elite level.
It’s hard not to like James today vs. the Pelicans. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49.
James has also had some of his best games this season against some of the brightest young stars in the game. He dropped 40 points with eight assists and six rebounds in his first matchup vs. Zion this season, and he’s also put up big games against the Hawks (Trae Young), Mavericks (Luka Doncic), and Grizzlies (Ja Morant). Sometimes you gotta remind the young fellas that you wear the crown for a reason.
Value
Juan Toscano-Anderson drew the start for the Warriors yesterday with Draymond Green out of the lineup and finished with a season-high 30.9 minutes. He would likely draw another start if Green is unable to play today, and he’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him an appealing value at his current price tag across the industry.
There is currently no update on Green’s status for today’s matchup, so make sure to stay up to date using our new Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins is coming off an excellent game yesterday vs. the Suns. He contributed in every category across the board, tallying 17 points, seven rebounds, five assists, three steals, and two blocks. The result was 45.9 FanDuel points, despite the fact that he shot just 30% from the field. He could put together an even bigger performance vs. the Wizards if he can score the ball a bit more efficiently.
Pascal Siakam represents one of the better values of the day on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He would be an even stronger target if VanVleet is unable to suit up. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +1.7% with VanVleet off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.19 FanDuel points per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is coming off of back-to-back subpar games. He’s scored 39.0 DraftKings points or fewer in both contests, but there isn’t much cause for concern. He still averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in those games, but his production has been limited by an average of just 25 minutes. His fantasy scoring should return to normal if he plays a few additional minutes today.
His poor recent production has also dropped to just $9,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s a nice buy-low target.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica stands out today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged a stout 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 32.2 minutes in our NBA Models. That combination makes him one of the best projected values on the slate.
Fast Break
Bjelica isn’t the only viable PF option for the Kings today. Harry Giles has been an awesome producer this season, averaging 1.05 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s gotten the opportunity to play more minutes recently. He’s logged at least 23.7 minutes in each of his past four games, including 30.5 minutes in his last game. Unsurprisingly, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, and he should continue to produce at a high level given that much playing time.
Davis Bertans is another potential value option at the position. He has one of the best individual matchups vs. the Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.29. He’s priced identically to Bjelica on FanDuel, but he’s slightly cheaper on DraftKings. That makes him the preferred option between the two over there.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. You never know what you’re going to get from him from a DFS perspective. He has one of the highest ceilings in basketball, but he also has one of the lowest floors for his price tag. The fact that his matchup has virtually no effect on his performance makes him even more infuriating.
That said, he doesn’t face a ton of competition at the center position today. He’s priced at $9,500 on FanDuel, and no other center owns a price tag above $6,000. He should be the highest scorer at the position by default, which means there’s much less risk than usual in rostering him. If he goes off, everyone that doesn’t have him is basically drawing dead. If he doesn’t, he could still wind up as the highest scorer at the position.
Value
If you’re not paying up for Jokic, Marquese Chriss is an excellent pivot. He’s crushed when given the opportunity to play this season, averaging 1.37 FanDuel points per minute. He’s currently projected for 26.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and he could see a few additional minutes if Green is unable to suit up. His matchup vs. the Wizards is also excellent, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.56 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Thomas Bryant is still playing limited minutes at the moment, but he’s capable of making an impact in a short period of time. He’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he doesn’t need a ton of fantasy points to pay off his $3,700 salary on FanDuel.
Christian Wood is currently questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Kings, but he would be a strong option if he’s able to suit up. He leads all center options with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s been one of the most productive players at the position over the past month. He has thrived given a boost in playing time recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games.
Photo credit: Rob Carr-Getty Images
Pictured: Wizards SG Bradley Beal (3)
