The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Jamal Murray has been amazing over his past two games, scoring 66.6 and 76.7 FanDuel points vs. the Utah Jazz. He’s averaged 1.31 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is easily the top mark at the position. He also leads the position in projected minutes in our NBA Models, which is an excellent combination for fantasy purposes. Murray has been priced up across the industry, but his $8,600 salary on FanDuel is still probably too cheap.
Value
Trey Burke is currently listed as questionable for the Mavericks, but he would be an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. He’s started each of the past three games in place of Kristaps Porzingis, who will miss the remainder of the first round with a knee injury. Burke has posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of those contests, including 37.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 of this series.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker stands out on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He had been limited by a knee injury during the seeding games, but that appears to be completely behind him at this point. He’s scored at least 47.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.31 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
On the other side of that matchup, Kyle Lowry is also coming off an injury. He hurt his left ankle in Game 4 vs. the Nets, but he’s been upgraded to probable for today’s matchup. Lowry posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his first three playoff games this season, and he was well on his way to doing it in four-straight before his ankle injury forced him out early.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic is listed as questionable for the Mavericks, but he’s fully expected to play in Game 6 vs. the Clippers. That’s good for the Mavs because they’ll need a huge performance from him if they have any chance of forcing a decisive Game 7. Doncic has already had some heroic performances vs. the Clippers in this series, and he’s looking at another expanded workload in today’s contest.
He’s increased his usage rate by +2.0% with Porzingis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.59 FanDuel points per minute. He owns the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models, and no one on the slate can match him in that department when he’s at his best.
Make sure to monitor the status for Doncic and the rest of today’s players using the new Labs Insiders tool.
Value
Marcus Smart is going to have to step up for the Celtics in this series given the absence of Gordon Hayward. Hayward has officially left the bubble in Orlando at this point, and it seems like a long shot that he’ll be able to play at all in this series vs. the Raptors.
Smart has moved into the starting lineup with Hayward inactive this season, and he’s averaged 26.05 FanDuel points per game in that situation. He logged at least 38.6 minutes in each of his past two games, which should give him a good chance to pay off his $5,300 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has been shooting the lights out during the playoffs, and he stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s only failed to return value once in this series, and that was a game where he played just 27.5 minutes in a blowout win.
Paul George heard all your jokes heading into Game 5 vs. the Mavericks, and he did not think they were funny. He broke out of his mini-slump in a big way, shooting 12-18 from the field and 4-8 from 3-point range. He’s still priced down at $7,800 on FanDuel, and George has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63 with a comparable salary.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is a proven playoff performer, and he’s put that on display through his first five games of the playoffs in 2020. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each contest, including Game 5 when he played just 29.8 minutes. With that in mind, he’s simply too cheap at $10,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he leads the position with seven Pro Trends.
The Clippers are also implied for 124.25 points, which is more than 10 points higher than every other team on the slate.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. is yet another member of the Mavs who finds himself on the injury report heading into today’s contest. That said, he’s an excellent option on FanDuel if he suits up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s increased his usage rate by +1.9% with Porzingis off the court this season. He’s also one of the better values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown also owns a Bargain Rating of 94% on FanDuel, and he’s logged at least 41 minutes in each of his past two games. He hasn’t crushed from a fantasy perspective in those contests, but he shot a combined 12-31 from the field (38.7%). He should be able to pay off his $6,500 salary pretty easily if he shoots a little better in today’s contest given his average of 1.01 FanDuel points per minute.
OG Anunoby doesn’t possess much of a ceiling, but he’s a pretty safe investment at his current price tag across the industry. He should see plenty of minutes to try and limit Jayson Tatum, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season. He scored between 20.75 and 26.75 DraftKings points in all four games vs. the Nets, which was good for a positive Plus/Minus in each contest.
Power Forward
Stud
Speaking of Tatum, he’s blossomed into a full-blown superstar in his third NBA season. He was incredible on both ends of the court this season for the Celtics, and he carried that production into his first round series vs. the 76ers. He’ll face a stiff test today from the Raptors – who ranked second in defensive efficiency during the regular season – but Tatum has given us no indication that he won’t be up for the task. He stands out as the easy top choice at a relatively weak PF position on today’s slate.
Value
It’s pretty amazing how important Marcus Morris has become to the Clippers’ success. They’ve increased their Net Rating by a ridiculous amount with Morris on the court this season, so he should continue to see plenty of playing time next to guys like George and Leonard. Overall, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.21 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his current $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s an interesting buy-low candidate $8,100. He was dreadful during the first round vs. the Nets, particularly from a scoring perspective. He shot just 41.7% from the field and 28.6% from 3-point range, both of which were well below his regular season averages. The Celtics have been the top defensive team in the bubble, but he still has some bounce-back appeal.
Michael Porter Jr. is someone with plenty of upside who should check in with relatively low ownership. He’s no longer starting for the Nuggets, but that didn’t stop him from playing nearly 34 minutes in their last contest. MPJ has averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the potential to crush his $5,700 salary if he sees that many minutes on today’s slate.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic came out aggressive in Game 5 vs. the Jazz, exploding for 21 points in the first quarter.
With that in mind, his finally tally of 45.2 FanDuel points was actually kind of disappointing. He has not been able to pile up the peripherals in the way we’ve become accustomed to, despite the fact that the Nuggets have been red-hot offensively during this series.
Still, he’s obviously capable of exploding in any situation, and he should see another large workload in an elimination contest. He owns the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate, trailing only Doncic and Leonard.
Value
Boban Marjanovic has seen a bump in playing time with Porzingis out of the lineup recently. He’s logged at least 15.7 minutes in back-to-back games, and while that may not seem like much for most players, Boban clearly isn’t most players. He’s averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential to do a lot of damage in just 15 minutes.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell busted out of his slump in his last game, scoring 37.25 DraftKings points over 22.8 minutes. He should continue to see a boost in playing time as he gets re-acclimated in the Clippers’ rotation, and he’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season. He stands out as the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Rudy Gobert doesn’t have the same slate-breaking upside of Jokic, but his floor is definitely safer. He’s -$2,000 cheaper than Jokic on FanDuel, but he averaged just 4.3 fewer fantasy points per game than Jokic during the regular season. The Nuggets have also been an absolute disaster defensively, giving Gobert a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25.
