The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate differs by site. FanDuel features a four-game slate starting at 12:30 p.m. ET, while DraftKings features a three-game slate starting at 2 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Sunday’s NBA slate is merely an appetizer before the Super Bowl, so only eight teams are going to be in action. With that in mind, the options are going to be a little thin.
Luckily, the Rockets are one of the teams on the slate, which means Russell Westbrook is an option at PG. He’s been phenomenal recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +11.22 over his past 10 games, yet his salary remains reasonable at just $10,200. It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and Westbrook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.01 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Westbrook is also in an awesome spot vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank fourth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99. The Rockets’ implied team total of 125.25 points ranks first on the slate and is one of the largest totals we’ve seen all season.
Value
The Nuggets continue to be pretty shorthanded. Jamal Murray, Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. have already been ruled out, and Paul Millsap seems unlikely to suit up as well.
That should result in another increased workload for Monte Morris. He’s played at least 28.9 minutes in five of his past six games, and he’s currently projected for 32.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with increased playing time.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as questionable, and his status will obviously be huge for today’s slate. If he’s unable to suit up, Eric Bledsoe would become an elite option at $6,100 on FanDuel. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +9.0% with Giannis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.40 FanDuel points per minute. Make sure to check out the new Labs NBA Insiders tool to get up-to-the-minute injury updates on Giannis and other key players.
Ricky Rubio is also questionable, and he would be an interesting option if he’s active. His price has decreased by $2,000 over the past month on FanDuel and $1,600 on DraftKings, and the Bucks are a pretty good matchup. They are excellent defensively, but they do play at the fastest pace in the league. Overall, Rubio owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12 on FanDuel, where he leads all PGs with 11 Pro Trends.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden snapped out of his funk in his last game, scoring 75.0 DraftKings points over 37.4 minutes vs. the Mavericks. That’s caused his salary to jump back up across the industry, so the buy-low window is officially closed.
Is he worth targeting at an inflated salary? I think so. A massive price tag hasn’t been a problem for most of the season, and he should continue to see a boost in value with Clint Capela out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.3% and his rebound rate by +1.7% with Capela off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.80 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, the Pelicans are an elite team to target as well. They’re currently implied for 119.75 points, with the combined total on that game sitting at 245.
Josh Hart is a cheap way to get some exposure. He’s priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings, and he’s played at least 27.5 minutes in three of his past four games. Hart has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton is another member of the Bucks who would benefit from the absence of Giannis. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.8% with Giannis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.37 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also dominated in four full games without his teammate, averaging 46.65 FanDuel points over just 31.2 minutes.
Jrue Holiday is also worth consideration for the Pelicans. He’s scored at least 39.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, including 42.5 DraftKings points over just 25.7 minutes in his last game.
Small Forward
Stud
The Raptors are another team dealing with injuries at the moment. Marc Gasol and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have both been ruled out, and Nick Nurse has played a pretty tight rotation with both players out of the lineup.
That makes Pascal Siakam an appealing option at $8,500 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games. The game between the Rockets and Pelicans should garner the majority of the attention on today’s slate, so Siakam could carry reduced ownership as well.
Value
Will Barton is coming off a big performance in his last game, scoring 44.4 FanDuel points vs. the Bucks. Barton has unsurprisingly increased his usage rate with Murray, Porter, Plumlee and Millsap off the court this season, and he led the team with 38 minutes in his only game with all four players out of the lineup.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has seen a slight reduction in value since Zion Williamson joined the rotation, which has caused his salary to plummet to $7,100 on DraftKings. That represents a decrease of $700 over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He also leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99 on DraftKings.
Mikal Bridges is very affordable at $4,000 on DraftKings considering the sheer volume of minutes he’s been playing recently. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with a comparable salary and minutes projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.37.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson is one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute since joining the rotation, and his playing time has risen steadily over that time frame. He’s currently projected for 29.1 minutes vs. the Rockets, and he can put up a monster performance given that much playing time. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12, which is the second-highest mark at the position.
Value
Serge Ibaka is priced like a value, but he has the potential to provide stud-like production. He’s seen a spike in playing time given the Raptors’ current injury situation, logging as many as 33.2 minutes recently. He’s averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute, so he’s an absolute steal at $5,800. Ibaka is projected for higher than 40% ownership — which will likely make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate — but it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t return value.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he’ll obviously be in play if he’s able to suit up. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so very few players can match his upside.
P.J. Tucker should continue to see a ton of playing time with Capela out of the lineup. He’s not the most productive DFS option — he’s averaged 0.57 FanDuel points per minute over the past month — but it’s hard to bust at $4,300 with so many minutes. He should also benefit from the game environment vs. the Pelicans, and he’s one of the cheaper ways to get exposure to that contest.
Center
Stud
Deandre Ayton has been playing as much as anyone in basketball recently. He’s currently projected for 37.7 minutes vs. the Bucks, and he’s played at least 39.5 minutes in two of his past three contests. Ayton is an above-average producer on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s a very appealing target. His matchup also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.77 on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Brook Lopez has seen a massive price reduction recently on DraftKings. He’s been priced down all the way to $3,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He would be really appealing at that price if Giannis is ultimately ruled out given his average of 25.31 DraftKings points in four games without the Greek Freak.
Fast Break
If you’re looking to go even cheaper on DraftKings, you could do worse than Chris Boucher at $3,300. He’s averaged a stout 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a solid handful of minutes with Gasol and Hollis-Jefferson out of the lineup recently.
Andre Drummond is available only on the FanDuel main slate, but he has an excellent matchup vs. the Nuggets. They’ve been dreadful against opposing centers this season, giving Drummond an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44.
Photo credit: Tom Szczerbowski-Getty Images
Pictured: Raptors PF Serge Ibaka (9)
