The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, scoring just 22.75 DraftKings points while shooting 0-of-6 from the field. That said, he wasn’t really needed in that contest — the Celtics ultimately beat the Pistons by 21 points — resulting in just 29.8 minutes of playing time.
There are reasons to expect a bounceback today vs. the Hornets. Marcus Smart remains out with an eye injury, and Gordon Hayward was just ruled out with a foot injury. Walker has increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.0% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute.
The matchup is also decent. The Celtics’ implied team total of 111.25 ranks third on the slate, and Walker could be more motivated vs. his former team.
Value
The Lakers are going to be a key team on today’s slate. LeBron James is currently listed as doubtful, which opens up a ton of opportunities for the rest of the roster. That said, they do have a difficult matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets, who rank 29th in pace and fourth in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, the Lakers are implied for just 105.75 points, which represents a significant decrease compared to their season average (112.6).
The positives of LeBron being out should outweigh the negatives for Rajon Rondo. He’s increased his assist rate by +4.0% with James off the court this season, and he should see a few additional minutes in this contest. Rondo has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him a very appealing target at his minimal price tag across the industry.
Fast Break
Malcolm Brogdon has seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate vs. the Bucks. The Bucks are a strong defensive team, but they also play at the fastest pace in the league. That makes them an above-average matchup for PGs, giving Brogdon an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.13.
Chris Paul stands out as one of the better pure values at the position on DraftKings at $7,200. He’s been a nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.76 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is pretty thin at the top. Only Devonte’ Graham has a salary above $6,900 on FanDuel, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.66 vs. the Celtics. With that in mind, it’s definitely reasonable to pay down a bit.
Lou Williams is priced at just $5,100, but he has the potential to provide stud-like production at that price tag. Kawhi Leonard is expected to get the night off for rest, and Williams has increased his usage rate by +3.9% with Leonard off the court this season. He’s also been awesome in seven contests with Leonard out of the lineup, averaging 36.43 FanDuel points per game.
He’s close to a must-play on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
The Lakers have a trio of SGs who are priced near the minimum on FanDuel who should see a bump with LeBron out of the lineup.
Let’s start with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s been the best value of the bunch recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games, and he’s coming off 25.7 FanDuel points over 34.3 minutes in his last contest. He appears to have the safest workload among the Lakers SGs at the moment, which makes him the strongest option of the group for cash games.
Avery Bradley is the wild card. He’s projected for the fewest minutes of the group, but he’s seen the largest boost in production with LeBron off the court this season. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.3% in that situation, resulting in an average of 0.75 DraftKings points per minute. That’s the top mark among the Lakers SGs with LeBron off the court.
Danny Green is the hybrid option. He’s expected to play more minutes than Bradley — he’s currently projected for 28.3 in our NBA Models — and he’s been more productive than KCP on a per-minute basis. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.93 (per the Trends tool). He’s grading out as the top Lakers SG.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder has been doing some nice work for the Thunder recently. He’s scored at least 34.5 DraftKings points in four straight games, including at least 42.75 in his past two. His price remains very reasonable at $6,200 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers.
Khris Middleton is underpriced at just $6,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 79%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the position by a comfortable margin.
Small Forward
Studs
SF is loaded on today’s slate. It starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been absolutely insane when on the court this season. His fantasy production has been limited because the Bucks have been so dominant — he’s averaging just 31.1 minutes per game — but he’s averaged a ridiculous 2.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. To put that in perspective, James Harden has averaged just 1.66 DraftKings points per minute this season. The gap between Giannis and the rest of the league is truly remarkable from a fantasy perspective.
He’s always in play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), and his matchup vs. the Pacers doesn’t carry the same blowout concerns as usual. The Bucks are favored by just eight points at home, and Giannis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.27 in games with a comparable spread this season.
Still, it’s hard to argue against Paul George as the top overall play at the position. He’s unsurprisingly seen a massive boost in usage in games without Leonard this season, leading the team with a usage rate of 37.4%. He’s averaged 52.15 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in six games without Leonard, and he leads all SFs in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He should be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Value
Kyle Kuzma is probable for the Lakers today, and he’s an appealing value option at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s not expected to play a ton of minutes, but he’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with LeBron off the court this season.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown could be a bit overlooked today given the presence of Giannis and George, but he’s definitely worth some consideration at $7,000 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 79%, and he’s seen a usage bump of +3.2% with Smart and Hayward off the court this season. He’s dominated in three games with both players out of the lineup, averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.2 on FanDuel.
Nicolas Batum is priced at the absolute minimum at $3,000 on DraftKings, and he’s coming off 29.6 minutes in his last game. He hasn’t been super productive when on the court this season, averaging just 0.69 DraftKings points per minute, but it’s hard to ignore a min-priced player with that much playing time upside.
Power Forward
Stud
Today’s slate is loaded with high-priced options considering there are only four games. Anthony Davis has the potential to be the highest-owned option with LeBron out of the lineup. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +7.6% with LeBron off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.75 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged just 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in general, so that’s a big bump in production.
His matchup vs. the Nuggets isn’t ideal, but they have been worse against opposing big men than guards. Overall, Davis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings.
Value
Daniel Theis has seen a solid handful of minutes recently, logging at least 21.5 in each of his past five games. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that’s enough to make him fantasy relevant in a good matchup vs. the Hornets. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is another player who should see a bump given their current injury situation. He’s seen a usage increase of +4.2% with Hayward and Smart off the court this season, and he’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute in three games with both players out of the lineup.
Domantas Sabonis is currently questionable with a groin injury, but he’s an interesting GPP pivot if he’s able to suit up. He should command minimal ownership, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic should be the lowest-owned of all the stud options on today’s slate, which increases his appeal for GPPs. He struggled to start the season, but he’s been playing much better of late. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.49 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +6.76 on DraftKings in each of his past four games.
Value
Steven Adams is not a true value option at $6,000 on DraftKings, but he still stands out as one of the better options at the position. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.57 over his past 10 games. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell is an elite option on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.1% in eight games without Leonard this season, resulting in an average of 39.33 FanDuel points per game. His matchup vs. the Nuggets is also solid, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11.
Enes Kanter leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 91% on FanDuel, and he’s been an excellent value recently. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +6.74 in each of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 33.6 FanDuel points in two of them. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, which makes him a very appealing pivot.
Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Lakers PF Anthony Davis (3)
