The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Spencer Dinwiddie has been doing his best to keep the Nets afloat while Kyrie Irving nurses an injury. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.75 over his past 10 games.
That said, his price has actually decreased by $1,000 since its peak on FanDuel, and his current $7,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s in a tough spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.35, but he’s still a quality buy-low option.
Value
Elfrid Payton returned from an injury five games ago for the Knicks, and his playing time has steadily ramped up over that time frame. He’s logged at least 27 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That should be more than enough playing time for him to pay off his reduced salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Very few players stand out as having great matchups today. There are a lot of slow-paced, defensive teams on this small slate, and only two teams are implied for more than 109.5 points.
Ben Simmons is one of the lone exceptions at PG. He has a great individual matchup vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.77 on FanDuel. He’s also underpriced at just $8,600 given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Simmons should also benefit from the 76ers’ current injury situation. Joel Embiid has been downgraded to doubtful, while Al Horford is expected to be a game-time decision. Simmons isn’t the type of player who figures to see a huge usage bump if both players are ruled out — he’s increased his usage rate by just +0.1% with both players off the court this season — but he could see a bump in his rebound rate.
Trae Young looks like an awesome pivot off Dinwiddie and Simmons in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He owns the highest ceiling projection at the position, yet he will likely command much less ownership. He leads all players with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07 (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Buddy Hield has dominated over his past 10 contests, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.73 on FanDuel. He has thrived with De’Aaron Fox out of the lineup, and Fox is not expected to make his return to the lineup today vs. the Warriors. It’s a nice matchup for Hield, with the Warriors ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season. Hield leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Kevin Huerter is still working his way back from an injury, but he’s coming off 30 minutes in his last contest. That’s his second-highest minute output of the entire season, which bodes well for his fantasy potential moving forward. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he looks like a value at just $4,000 on DraftKings if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has played limited minutes since returning from an injury three games ago, but he may see a bump in playing time today if Embiid and Horford are ultimately ruled out. Richardson hasn’t seen a ton of minutes with both players off the court this season, but he has increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.0% in that situation. Richardson also has the top Opponent Plus/Minus at the SG position, so he has nice upside at his current price tag.
The Lakers are going to be an interesting team to monitor prior to lineup lock. LeBron James is currently listed as questionable but told reporters on Saturday that he plans to play. Anthony Davis, Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley are listed as probable, while Kyle Kuzma has been ruled out.
That could result in a larger workload for Danny Green. He’s been more effective recently, increasing his fantasy output to 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he owns a solid +1.83 Opponent Plus/Minus vs. the Hawks. He also stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 79%.
Small Forward
Stud
There are not a lot of studs worth considering on today’s slate, which should make LeBron a popular target if he’s able to suit up. LeBron has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on FanDuel, and he’s displayed increased aggression as a scorer over that time frame. He’s posted an average usage rate of 36.9%, which is significantly higher than his season average of 32.5%.
LeBron is also in a wonderful spot vs. the Hawks. The Lakers are currently implied for 119.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate by 8.5 points. Atlanta has played at the 10th-fastest pace this season, but they rank merely 28th in defensive efficiency.
Value
The Nuggets are in an interesting spot today. They’re taking on the New York Knicks, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency this season. While that seems like a good matchup on paper, the Knicks have also played at the fourth-slowest pace. Denver has played at the third-slowest pace, so this game has the potential to be the slowest of the day by a wide margin. The Nuggets are also playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which further complicates matters.
Still, it’s hard to ignore Will Barton at just $6,600 on FanDuel. That’s simply too cheap for Barton given what we’ve seen from him this season: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.81 in 13 games with a comparable price tag. His current salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has been priced up to $8,200 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings, both of which represent new season-highs for him. That said, he figures to be one of the largest beneficiaries if Embiid is ultimately ruled out. He’s averaged 36.65 DraftKings points in five games without Embiid this season, and his usage rate of 23.4% ranks second on the team in those contests.
Marcus Morris is priced at just $5,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a massive Bargain Rating of 98%. He owns 12 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.23 with a similar price tag.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis headlines the PF position, and he’s started to look like the AD of old recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.00 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his fantasy output to 1.61 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also displayed a large ceiling over that time frame, exploding for 81.4 FanDuel points vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.
He shouldn’t find a ton of resistance today from Atlanta Hawks, who have no one capable of matching his combination of size and athleticism. They rank merely 21st on the glass in addition to struggling defensively this season.
The biggest question with Davis is whether or not you should pair him with LeBron on today’s slate. That’s a tempting option — they own the two highest ceiling projections in our NBA Models — but the data suggests it may not be a good idea. Davis and James have a correlation of -0.26, which is the lowest correlation for both players.
Value
Richaun Holmes has seen a reduction in minutes since Marvin Bagley III returned to the lineup, but his salary has dropped by a ridiculous margin on DraftKings over that time frame. He went from being priced at $7,200 four games ago vs. the Dallas Mavericks to just $4,800 for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors. He’s still averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 28.3 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be more than enough playing time for him to return value at his current price tag.
Fast Break
The Warriors PF situation is definitely worth monitoring heading into lineup lock. Draymond Green is expected to return to the lineup after getting the night off in their last contest, but Eric Paschall is currently listed as questionable. If he isn’t able to suit up, Marquese Chriss could be looking at another extended workload vs. the Kings. He’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage with an increased workload.
Al Horford has PF eligibility on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He would be a very appealing option at that price tag if he is able to suit up and Embiid is ultimately ruled out. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +6.6% in five games without Embiid this season, resulting in an average of 38.65 DraftKings points per game.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is arguably the most maddening player in all of DFS. He’s looked sluggish for most of the season, so naturally he exploded for a triple-double and 70.0 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Thunder.
To be fair, Jokic has actually played much better of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. He remains affordable at $8,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%. Jokic never deserves to be in a cash-game lineup, but he has the highest ceiling projection at the center position (excluding Embiid).
Value
Kyle O’Quinn would likely become the chalk value play on today’s slate if both Embiid and Horford are ruled out. He’s an elite per-minute producer — he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with Embiid and Horford off the court this season — and he would likely be looking at a solid handful of minutes in that situation. He’s priced near the minimum at just $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
JaVale McGee is another potential source of value, particularly at just $3,900 on FanDuel. He isn’t playing many minutes at the moment, but that didn’t stop him from exploding for 40.5 FanDuel points in his last outing.
Center is pretty thin on today’s slate. Outside of Jokic, the only other player projected for more than 23.5 minutes is Mitchell Robinson. Robinson is a foul machine, which doesn’t bode well for his outlook vs. Jokic, but he does own a great matchup if he can stay on the court. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44 ranks first at the position on FanDuel.
Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA Today Sports
Pictured: Lakers SF LeBron James (23) & PF Anthony Davis (3)
