The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a five-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s been fantastic to start his tenure with the Rockets, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first five games while averaging 57.35 DraftKings points. He has seen a slight decline in usage — his mark of 27.7% is approximately 3% lower than his usage rate from last season — but he remains an elite contributor in virtually every other category across the board.
Westbrook has an interesting matchup today vs. the Miami Heat. They’ve been one of the better defensive teams in the league to start the season, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, but they’ve also played at the ninth-fastest pace. Overall, the Rockets’ implied team total of 118.25 is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin.
Luka Doncic is another option if you’re paying up at the position. He has one of the best individual matchups at the position, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14 on DraftKings. He has displayed an immense ceiling this season and is coming off 75.25 DraftKings points in his last contest.
Value
The Knicks are incredibly thin in the backcourt today: Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr. have already been ruled out.
Both players missed their last contest, and Frank Ntilikina was inserted into the starting lineup. He played 37.8 minutes in that game, which makes him a really appealing punt play at just $3,100. It’s hard to find players with that kind of minute upside at such a cheap price tag, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.57 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson is a high-usage player, which makes him very useful for DFS. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his playing time has increased as the season has progressed. He has nice upside at $4,100 on DraftKings.
It’s been a rough start to the season for De’Aaron Fox. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -5.75 through his first five games on FanDuel. That said, he has scored at least 37.0 FanDuel points in four of his first five contests, and his salary has dropped to just $8,300 for today’s matchup vs. the Knicks. This is a great spot for a blow-up game since the Knicks are one of the worst defensive teams in basketball.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the most expensive player on today’s slate, but he hasn’t lived up to his price tag for most of the season. He did explode for 75.1 FanDuel points vs. the Brooklyn Nets, but he’s averaged just 47.2 FanDuel points in his other four games.
Still, it’s hard not to like his fantasy potential moving forward. His upside is reduced after the addition of Westbrook, particularly in the assist and rebound categories, but he continues to dominate offensive possessions for the Rockets. He’s posted a usage rate of 39.9% this season, which is only a slight decrease from his mark of 40.5% last year.
The only thing that has stopped Harden from putting up better fantasy results has been some dreadful shooting performances. He’s shot just 36.5% from the field and 20.0% from 3-point range through his first five games, both of which represent significant decreases compared to his career averages. When he is making shots, like he did on Wednesday vs. the Nets, he still has the highest ceiling in DFS.
Value
Avery Bradley is very similar to Ntilikina on today’s slate. He isn’t a particularly strong producer — he’s averaged just 0.64 DraftKings points per minute this season — but it’s hard to find players with comparable workloads at just $3,400 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 30.4 minutes in our NBA Models, so he has a good chance to return value through sheer volume.
Fast Break
The Knicks played just eight players in their last contest, and they could employ a similar rotation today. R.J. Barrett finished second on the team with 39.1 minutes in that contest, and he finished with 34.75 DraftKings points. He shot just 5-of-17 from the field, so he has upside for a bigger performance today vs. the Kings. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Buddy Hield is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He has struggled to shoot the ball to start the season, which makes him a prime candidate for positive regression moving forward.
Small Forward
Studs
Paying up at SF today comes down to a decision between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James.
Let’s start with Kawhi. The Clippers have been careful with his minutes to start the season, but he’s been stellar from a fantasy perspective when he’s been on the court. He’s posted a usage rate of 39.9%, which is the top mark of his career by a substantial amount. For comparison, he posted a usage rate of just 30.3% during the regular season as a member of the Raptors. Unsurprisingly, this has led to a huge uptick in fantasy scoring: He’s currently averaging 1.82 DraftKings points per minute.
He has a tough matchup today vs. the Utah Jazz, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.11 on DraftKings, but this is an appealing spot in terms of scheduling. Kawhi hasn’t played since Thursday, and the Clippers don’t play again until Wednesday. There is no reason not to expect a full workload from him on today’s slate.
LeBron is coming off a vintage performance in his last game, tallying 39 points, 12 rebounds and 16 assists in an overtime win over the Mavericks. That will likely result in increased ownership for him today, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
That said, it’s hard to expect a repeat performance vs. the Spurs. For starters, his production in his last contest looks like an outlier: He scored 47.5 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his first four games. The Spurs also remain a difficult matchup from a fantasy perspective, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.43.
Overall, I think Kawhi has the clear edge.
Value
If you’re not paying up at the position, Marcus Morris stands out as a strong value. He led the Knicks with a whopping 39.2 minutes in their last game, and he responded with 50.75 DraftKings points. Morris has always been a strong producer on a per-minute basis, so it’s not surprising to see him taking advantage of his current role with the Knicks.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay remains underpriced at $4,700 on FanDuel. He doesn’t offer much of a ceiling given his limited playing time, but he makes up for it with an average of 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five games, which makes him an appealing target for cash games.
Bojan Bogdanovic was a big addition for the Jazz during the offseason, and it’s starting to pay dividends from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 30.2 fantasy points in all three of those contests. That makes him a strong option at just $5,500 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the clear class of the PF position today, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He leads the Lakers in both minutes and usage rate this season, and he’s averaged a stellar 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. The Spurs aren’t exactly a great matchup — Davis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.67 on DraftKings — but there’s no reason not to consider him on today’s slate. There are tons of value options at the other positions, so locking in Davis at PF seems like a wise decision.
Value
Richaun Holmes has been priced up aggressively on FanDuel, but his price increase has been warranted. He’s been excellent when on the court this season, averaging 1.07 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s seen a spike in playing time recently. He’s coming off just 20.2 minutes in his last game vs. the Jazz, but he played at least 30 in each of the two previous games. He has big upside vs. the Knicks at his current salary.
Fast Break
Kevin Love has turned back the clock in Cleveland this season. He’s gobbling up points and rebounds like he used to back with the Timberwolves and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.25 through his first five games on FanDuel. Pivoting from Davis to Love on FanDuel is definitely a viable strategy given Love’s Bargain Rating of 91%. Playing both together in the same lineup is also doable.
Kevin Knox is another way to get some cheap exposure to the Knicks today. He didn’t see the same boost in minutes like Ntilikina and Morris in their last game, but he still played 28.7. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute, so that’s enough playing time to make him fantasy relevant at just $3,700.
Center
Stud
The center position is thin at the top today. Rudy Gobert is the most expensive option on FanDuel, and he’s been priced down to just $8,200 after a dreadful start to the season. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -11.37 through his first five games and has averaged just 0.87 FanDuel points per minute. That’s a huge drop-off from his mark last season.
Still, the price reduction does make him an interesting buy-low option for GPPs. He’s still seeing a healthy amount of playing time, and centers with comparable minute projections and monthly salary changes have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48.
Value
Paying down for Dwight Powell is definitely the preferred strategy for cash games. He saw a solid increase in playing time in his last contest, and he’s currently projected for 26.1 minutes today vs. the Cavaliers. Powell has historically been an awesome investment with a comparable salary and minute projection, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.39 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Julius Randle is always capable of popping off for a huge performance, and he’s seen a steady price decrease since the start of the season. His current average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute is well below his mark from last season, so he could be due for some positive regression.
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports
Pictured: Knicks G R.J. Barrett (9)
