The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position is really thin at the top today. Jamal Murray is the only player priced above $6,000 on FanDuel, which increases his appeal. Murray is typically tough to trust — he’s a high-ceiling, low-floor type of player — but he has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.28 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including each of his past three.
Unfortunately, Murray is in a difficult spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns. They have the reputation for being a poor defensive team, but they’ve turned things around to start the 2019 season. They currently rank 12th in defensive efficiency after finishing in the bottom three in each of the past three seasons. They’ve been particularly stingy against opposing PGs, giving Murray an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.99 on FanDuel.
Value
De’Aaron Fox remains out for the Sacramento Kings, which means Cory Joseph should earn another start at the PG position. He hasn’t been particularly effective this season, averaging 0.73 FanDuel points per minute, but he has a chance to return value through sheer volume. He’s currently projected for a whopping 36.7 minutes in our NBA Models, and PGs with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.75 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Joseph also benefits from a solid matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank fifth in pace, and the Kings’ implied team total of 114.75 ranks third on the slate.
Fast Break
Fox isn’t the only injury that the Kings are dealing with at the moment. Marvin Bagley III and Trevor Ariza will also miss today’s contest, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable. That potentially opens up a lot of playing time for the rest of the roster.
Yogi Ferrell is someone who should see a boost in minutes off the bench. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s not that much more expensive on DraftKings at $3,800. He’s a viable punt candidate.
Patrick Beverley was plagued by foul trouble in his last game, which limited him to just 19.5 minutes of playing time. That’s caused his salary to drop by $600 on DraftKings for today’s contest vs. the Pelicans. The Pelicans have been dreadful defensively this season, giving Beverley an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99, so this is an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal is the most expensive option at the SG position, and it’s easy to see why. His average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute ranks first among today’s options, and he’s also projected for a whopping 39.2 minutes of playing time. That’s a pretty juicy combination.
The Kings aren’t exactly an ideal matchup — they’ve played at one of the slower paces in the league this season — but the Wizards’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks second on the slate. Beal is priced up to a season-high $10,200 across the industry, but he still has some appeal at that price tag. He’s scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.
Value
Gary Harris is slightly underpriced at $4,100 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 71%. He hasn’t exactly thrived recently, averaging just 0.66 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but his amount of playing time is encouraging. He’s played at least 34 minutes in six of his past seven games, and he’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes vs. the Suns.
Fast Break
There are some strong options at SG in the tier just below Beal:
- Spencer Dinwiddie: He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games on FanDuel and should continue to see an increased role for the shorthanded Nets. He’s led the team in usage with Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute.
- Buddy Hield: He should have the opportunity to carry a massive workload for the shorthanded Kings. He’s struggled in has past two games, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each, but he has led the team in usage with Fox, Bogdanovic, Bagley and Ariza off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings point per minute in that situation and could approach 40 minutes in this contest.
- Lou Williams: He stands out on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He has a high ceiling every time he takes the floor, and his matchup vs. the Pelicans is one of the best of the slate. The Clippers lead all teams with an implied team total of 122.5 points.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George is an interesting option today. On one hand, the Clippers are not looking to play him big minutes this season. He will likely be capped around 32 minutes for today’s matchup, which obviously limits his upside.
Still, he’s in a fantastic spot vs. the Pelicans, and he’s averaged a stout 1.55 DraftKings points per minute. Even when he’s shared the court with Kawhi Leonard this season, George still leads the team with an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a better target today on DraftKings, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 71%, but I would still exercise caution with him in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
The Kings are going to have at least one viable option at basically every position today, and SF is no exception. Harrison Barnes figures to play a bunch of minutes given their current injury situation. His average of 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is respectable, and his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 71%.
Fast Break
Joe Harris is another member of the Nets who has seen a few additional minutes with Irving and LeVert out of the lineup. He’s not great at filling up the stat sheet, but he has the ability to rack up a bunch of 3-pointers. He’s worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
This is a nice buy-low opportunity for Will Barton. He’s seen reduced minutes recently because of a few blowouts, but he should return to his normal workload if today’s contest vs. the Suns stays competitive. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, which would make him an excellent value at just $5,800.
Power Forward
Stud
Today’s slate lacks true star power, which should make Kawhi Leonard a popular target. The Clippers have been very cautious with him this season, giving him plenty of rest and limiting his minutes when he’s active. Still, he’s been dominant when he has been on the court. He’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in usage, and he’s averaged 1.53 FanDuel points per minute.
His salary has decreased to just $9,800 for today’s matchup vs. the Pelicans, which represents a decrease of $1,000 from its peak. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and it’s tough to imagine not paying up for him given all the available value.
Value
Aron Baynes missed yesterday’s contest vs. the Timberwolves, and he seems unlikely to suit up today vs. the Nuggets. That would make Frank Kaminsky a very appealing value play at just $4,000 on FanDuel. He played 29.2 minutes yesterday and has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
The Kings have a pair of appealing PF options in Richaun Holmes and Nemanja Bjelica. Both guys are projected for around 30 minutes of playing time, and both players own elite matchups vs. the Wizards. Holmes has been the superior fantasy asset this season — his average of 1.02 FanDuel points per minute is slightly higher than Bjelica’s average of 0.95 — but he’s also more expensive across the industry.
Julius Randle stands out on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is easily the most frustrating player in fantasy. He’s capable of exploding every single time he takes the slate, evidenced by his triple-double and 64.0 DraftKings points in his last contest. Unfortunately, those games don’t happen very frequently: He’s posted a Consistency Rating of just 58% over the past month on DraftKings.
It’s hard to deny his upside vs. the Suns — he owns the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate — but there’s no guarantee that you’ll get that projection if you choose to roster him. He’s currently projected for 21-25% ownership on DraftKings, which could make him an appealing fade candidate.
Value
Mitchell Robinson stands out as one of the best values on DraftKings regardless of position. He’s priced at just $4,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and his matchup vs. the Nets gives him an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.51. Robinson has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s seen a slight bump in playing time recently.
Fast Break
Jaxson Hayes stands out as another strong option if you’re paying down at center. He’s very affordable at just $4,300 on DraftKings, and he should see a solid handful of minutes with Derrick Favors and Jahlil Okafor out of the lineup. He’s scored at least 20.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.
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Pictured: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (15)
Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
