The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young stands out in his own tier at the PG position. He’s priced at $10,400 on FanDuel, and no other PG is priced above $7,700. It’s easy to see why he’s the most expensive option: He leads all PGs in Pro Trends, fantasy points per minute and projected minutes in our NBA Models.
That said, he’s in a subpar spot today vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. They currently rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, and the Hawks are implied for a slate-low 102.5 points. The Hawks have averaged 106.5 points per game to begin the season, so that’s a pretty significant decrease. Young also has a difficult individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.69 on FanDuel. There are better positions at which to spend up.
Value
Ky Bowman is the lock of all locks today, particularly on DraftKings at the absolute minimum. D’Angelo Russell will join Steph Curry and Klay Thompson on the sidelines, so Bowman should be asked to carry a large workload. He’s currently projected for 34.6 minutes, and he’s averaged 28.42 DraftKings points in games in which he’s played at least 30 minutes this season.
Bowman is also in an ideal spot vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank second in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, which makes them one of the best possible matchups from a fantasy perspective. Bowman’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94 ranks first at the position on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Pelicans will be an interesting team to monitor today. Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, J.J. Redick and Jahlil Okafor all missed yesterday’s contest, and Frank Jackson and Derrick Favors were forced to leave the game due to injuries. The status on those players for today’s contest is currently unknown, but they have the potential to be extremely shorthanded.
If they are missing a few members of their backcourt, Nickeil Alexander-Walker would become a strong option at just $3,100. He is not shy about trying to score when he’s on the court, resulting in an average of 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He showed what he is capable of when given additional minutes yesterday, scoring 38.0 DraftKings points while posting a usage rate of 33.6% vs. the Houston Rockets.
The Nuggets are in one of the largest pace-up spots of the day vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, which gives Jamal Murray some extra appeal. He’s been a hit-or-miss option this season, but he has GPP-winning upside at $7,100.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal is carrying one of the largest workloads in basketball at the moment. He’s logged at least 37 minutes in each of his past four contests, and no one on today’s slate is currently projected for more than his 38.2 minutes. He’s been able to take advantage of the opportunity, scoring at least 62.75 DraftKings points in each of his past two games.
Beal is currently averaging a career-high 29.7 points per game, and he has the potential to improve upon that number moving forward. He got off to a dreadful shooting start to begin the year, shooting just 30.6% from the field and 23.3% from 3-point range through his first three games, but he’s averaged 33.7 points per game over his past seven contests.
He has a brutal matchup today vs. the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.45 on DraftKings, but he still leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. He’s an interesting contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
The Warriors are going to be a popular source of value today with Russell out of the lineup, and Jordan Poole stands out at the SG position. He’s priced at just $4,400 on FanDuel and is currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically been strong investments, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.95 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday is another member of the Pelicans who could potentially benefit from their current injury situation. He didn’t exactly dominate in their last game, scoring just 25.5 DraftKings points in 36.4 minutes, but he’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with Ball and Ingram off the court this season.
Evan Fournier has been a nice fantasy option recently, scoring at least 36.3 FanDuel points in three of his past four contests. He seems underpriced at $5,600 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%, and the Magic own an excellent matchup vs. the Wizards. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency to begin the season.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s hard to envision not paying up for LeBron James today. There is so much value available, and James owns the highest median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.
He’s also in an appealing spot vs. the Hawks. They rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 116.0 points ranks second on the slate. LeBron’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76 also gives him an above-average individual matchup.
Value
Alec Burks is next up on our tour of the Warriors, and he stands out as a particularly nice option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Burks is one of the Warriors’ strongest producers on a per-minute basis — he’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season — and he leads the team in usage with Curry and Russell off the court.
Fast Break
Will Barton is currently questionable with a tight left adductor, but he would be tough to ignore if he’s active. He’s been dominant from a fantasy perspective to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.12 through his first eight games. He also has one of the best individual matchups on the slate given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.07 on DraftKings.
Kenrich Williams is priced at just $4,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He played 39.4 minutes in yesterday’s contest, and he could be looking at a similar workload today if Ingram and Favors are ruled out.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is massively underpriced on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s been a disappointment to begin his tenure with the Lakers, but he’s still averaged a strong 1.44 DraftKings points per minute. He also scored at least 52.0 DraftKings points in three straight games prior to putting up a dud in his last contest.
The only real question is whether or not you should pair Davis and LeBron together. It’s very easy to do so given the value with the Warriors and possibly the Pelicans, but the data suggests that may not be the wisest decision. James and Davis have a correlation of -0.49 on DraftKings, so both players have struggled to produce at the same time this season. You may be better off just choosing between them, especially considering that many fantasy owners will likely roster both.
Value
Jaren Jackson Jr. is another underpriced option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last contest, scoring just 21.25 DraftKings points, but he had scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in each of his three prior games. He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Denver Nuggets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98.
Fast Break
Draymond Green is an interesting option today. He’ll probably see a few additional shot attempts, but he’s never really been the type of guy who scores fantasy points that way. He’s much better at piling up the peripherals, and his teammates being worse could hurt him in that department. Still, he’s coming off 37.75 DraftKings points in his last game, so he’s likely underpriced at just $6,200.
The Hawks were absolutely demolished in their last game, which resulted in Jabari Parker playing just 23.7 minutes. He should return to his normal workload today vs. the Lakers, and Parker has averaged a stout 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been a major disappointment to start the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.64 on DraftKings. That said, consistency has always been an issue for Jokic, and he’s always capable of putting up a monster performance.
Today’s matchup vs. the Grizzlies seems like a strong spot. They rank seventh in pace, 21st in defensive efficiency and 17th in rebound rate, all of which bode well for opposing big men. Add it all up, and Jokic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43 on DraftKings.
He will likely be underowned given his performance to start the season, which makes him very intriguing for GPPs. His price has also decreased by $900 on DraftKings and $1,400 on FanDuel over the past month, so he’s a prime buy-low candidate.
Value
Whoever starts at center today for the Pelicans is going to be an intriguing value option. Okafor will likely get the nod if he’s healthy, and he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season.
If he’s unavailable, look for Jaxson Hayes to see a few additional minutes. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he scored 20.25 DraftKings points with Okafor out of the lineup yesterday. He’s only a rookie, but he definitely possesses NBA-level athleticism:
Look out, @hayes_jaxson is coming through! 👀#WontBowDown pic.twitter.com/gmO0SfiIaM
— NBA TV (@NBATV) November 17, 2019
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is popping as one of the top overall plays in our Models. He hasn’t been as productive this season as he was last year, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings. He also benefits from a dream matchup vs. the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.62.
Pictured: Warriors guards Damion Lee (1) and Alec Burks (8)
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
