The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has gotten off to a phenomenal start this season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.96 on DraftKings through his first two contests, and he’s coming off a triple-double in his last outing. He’s capable of filling up the box score on a nightly basis: He currently ranks first on the Mavericks in assist rate and second in both usage rate and rebound rate.
Doncic has a solid matchup tonight vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. The Mavs’ implied team total of 111.5 ranks fourth on the slate, and Portland ranks just 23rd in defensive efficiency to start the year.
Doncic owns 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied for the most at the position.
Value
Sticking with the Mavericks, Jalen Brunson figures to be a key role player this season. He started and played 28.8 minutes in their last game, and Brunson has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute through his first two contests. He averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute last season, so that production doesn’t feel particularly fluky. He’s underpriced across the industry if he’s going to see that much playing time moving forward.
Fast Break
The Miami Heat have gotten off to a 2-0 start this season despite Jimmy Butler being inactive for both contests. Goran Dragic has been a big reason for their success. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in both games, and he’s coming off 45.2 FanDuel points in a tough matchup vs. the Bucks in his last contest. The only real concern with Dragic is that the Heat will be on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back.
Spencer Dinwiddie has unsurprisingly seen a reduction in playing time after the addition of Kyrie Irving. That said, he’s managed to keep his fantasy value afloat due to an increased usage rate. He currently ranks second on the team in that department (33.8%), resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. He also saw a respectable 26.9 minutes in his last contest after playing just 18.5 minutes on opening night.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is pretty thin on today’s slate. Only three players are priced above $5,800 on FanDuel: Andrew Wiggins, C.J. McCollum and Caris LeVert. Wiggins and McCollum are both tough to roster because they give you minimal production in the peripheral categories. You basically need them to score a bunch of actual points in order to return fantasy value.
That leaves LeVert, who is a more well-rounded fantasy player. He’s capable of producing in every category across the board, so it’s not surprising that he has a better per-minute scoring average than Wiggins and McCollum over the past 12 months.
This looks like a nice opportunity to buy low on him. He struggled with foul trouble in his last game, which ultimately limited him to just 24.2 minutes. He’s currently projected for more than 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and his price has decreased by $500 on FanDuel. His current $6,400 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Shabazz Napier has SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s an interesting punt play. He’s priced just $200 above the minimum, but he displayed an excellent ceiling with 31.5 DraftKings points in his last game. He’s not expected to see a ton of minutes, but his average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past 12 months suggests he can take advantage of limited playing time.
Fast Break
Tyler Herro has not been shy about getting shots up during his rookie season. He’s launched at least 14 shots in each of his first two games, and he attempted seven 3s in his last contest. He can also provide some value with his rebounding — he’s currently averaging 6.5 rebounds per game — and his $5,300 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Delon Wright looks like another important role player for the Mavs this season. He actually started the second half in their last contest and finished with 43.25 DraftKings points in 32 minutes. His production from that game is definitely an outlier — he shot 66.7% from the field and recorded five steals — but he still seems underpriced given his current role.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James headlines the SF position on today’s slate, and he’s an interesting option vs. the Charlotte Hornets. He bounced back from a subpar performance on opening night in his last contest, recording 59.25 DraftKings points vs. the Utah Jazz. He’s been operating as the Lakers’ de facto PG this season with Rajon Rondo out of the lineup, which has given him increased assist upside, and he also leads the team in usage rate. The Lakers are in one of the better spots of the day, with their implied team total of 115.0 ranking second on the slate.
That said, James is far from a slam dunk. His playing time was down in his last contest — he logged just 30.6 minutes — and he’s projected for a similar workload on today’s slate. That is a wise decision for the Lakers considering his age and their title expectations this season, but it definitely diminishes his fantasy appeal.
Still, LeBron is capable of going off even in limited playing time, and his $9,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s probably a bit too risky for me in cash games, but he definitely still makes sense for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Rodney Hood has bounced around the league over the past few seasons, but it appears he’s found a home with the Blazers. He was a key contributor for last year’s squad, and he’s played at least 30.4 minutes in each of his first two games this season. He’s not an elite contributor on a per-minute basis — he’s averaged 0.70 FanDuel points per minute over the past year — but he doesn’t need to be considering his current role. He’s an excellent value at just $4,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Mavs are definitely one of the best sources of value today on DraftKings. Dorian Finney-Smith is another potential option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games, yet his salary has actually decreased to the absolute minimum on DraftKings for tonight’s contest. He doesn’t offer a high ceiling, but he’s really tough to avoid for cash games.
The Grizzlies are playing a much different style of basketball this season than we’ve seen in the past. They currently rank fourth in pace, which increases the appeal of their entire roster. Jae Crowder stands out at $4,400 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s logged at least 30.3 minutes in each of his first two contests, and he averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute last season.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has gotten off to a bit of a rough start with the Lakers, but there should be better days on the horizon. He’s had two tough matchups vs. the Clippers and Jazz to begin the season, and they combined to limit him to just 15-of-38 shooting. Davis has been over 50% from the field in six of his first seven NBA seasons, so he’s definitely due for some positive regression.
Perhaps that will start today vs. the Charlotte Hornets. P.J. Washington is expected to serve as his primary defender, and that’s a really tough task for a rookie. Overall, the Hornets rank just 28th in defensive efficiency to start the season.
Davis is a particularly nice value on DraftKings, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s one of my favorite stud options of the day.
Value
Speaking of Washington, he leads the PF position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.10 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Heat cleared up their center rotation a bit after trading away Hassan Whiteside during the offseason, which has been a positive for Bam Adebayo. He was excellent in his last game, scoring 46.6 FanDuel points over 38.5 minutes, and he’s currently projected for 31.4 minutes on today’s slate. Adebayo has historically been good when projected for a comparable workload, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.59 on FanDuel.
Zach Collins has struggled this season, but he has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his first two games. He averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute last season, but that number has fallen to just 0.61 this year. He seems due for some positive regression.
Center
Stud
It’s impossible to overstate just how good Karl-Anthony Towns has been to start the season. He’s dominated in literally every category, averaging 36.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per game. It’s been only two games, but each of those numbers would represent a new career-high. Add it all up, and Towns has averaged a ridiculous 2.35 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He’s obviously not going to produce at those levels all season, but he still seems poised for a monster year. He leads all centers with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Towns is going to command massive ownership — he’s currently projected for higher than 41% on DraftKings — but anything less than 100% is probably a mistake.
Value
It’s a tough day for those looking to pay down at center, but Meyers Leonard deserves some consideration on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 83%, and he has seen a healthy amount of playing time as the backup center for the Heat. He averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute last season, so he has the potential to improve on his pedestrian production to start the season.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas is an intriguing GPP option. He isn’t playing many minutes at the moment, but he’s historically been one of the best producers at the center position on a per-minute basis. He also has a juicy matchup vs. the Nets, who surrendered big games in bunches to opposing centers last season.
Whiteside has played approximately 26 minutes in each of his first two games with the Blazers, which is enough to make him a strong fantasy option. He’s averaged a stout 1.60 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame, and his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers PF Anthony Davis (3)
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA Today Sports
