Saturday’s NBA slate features Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Lakers and Nuggets at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
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Studs
Any analysis of the Lakers has to start with their dynamic duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They combined for 60 points in Game 4 and have generally been excellent fantasy assets during the postseason.
Let’s start with James. He recorded a triple-double in Game 3 and fell just one rebound and two assists shy of duplicating that performance in Game 4. That said, he still finished with a very respectable 49.75 DraftKings points.
What makes that performance even more impressive is that he didn’t even score the ball particularly well in that contest. He shot just 7-18 from the field, which is well below his usual field goal percentage. He shot 55.6% over his first three games vs. the Nuggets in this series, so he could be due for some positive regression in that category today.
As for Davis, scoring the ball is basically all that he’s been able to do recently. He’s averaged just 3.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists over his past two games, which is crazy-low for him. Davis had averaged 10.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game in the playoffs prior to those two contests, so there’s no reason to expect him to continue to struggle on the boards in particular.
If he can pick up his production in the peripheral categories, he could be looking at a monster fantasy day. The Nuggets have simply not been able to stop him from scoring, and he was 10-15 from the field and 13-14 from the free throw line in Game 4. Davis actually owns a slightly higher ceiling projection in our NBA Models despite the fact that he’s a bit cheaper on today’s slate.
Both players were in the optimal DraftKings showdown lineup for Game 4 despite relatively pedestrian performances, so both deserve heavy consideration today.
The Nuggets have their own “big two” of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and both players should carry massive workloads in a potential elimination game.
Jokic has not been at his best in this series. He has struggled vs. guys like Davis and Dwight Howard, resulting in 45.5 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his first four games. That’s simply not going to get the job done at his current salary.
That said, Jokic is obviously capable of going off in any matchup. He’s one of the best passing big men in the history of basketball, and he’s capable of pulling down big rebound totals as well. He’s my least favorite target among the four studs in this contest, but he’s by no means an easy fade.
With Jokic struggling, Murray has been asked to carry the load offensively. He’s done an admirable job, averaging 26.5 points per game on 54.4% shooting from the field. Murray is known as a dead-eye 3-point shooter, but he’s actually struggled a bit in that department. He’s making just 36% of his 3-point attempts in this series, so he has even more scoring upside if he can make a few additional 3’s in Game 5.
One big development from Game 4 was that the Lakers chose to put LeBron on Murray defensively at the end of the game. LeBron unsurprisingly put the clamps on Murray, limiting him to just 1-6 shooting while serving as his primary defender. If the Lakers choose to employ that matchup a bit more in Game 5, it could spell some trouble for Murray from a fantasy perspective.
Midrange
This area is particularly thin on today’s slate, as it has been for most of the series. A large portion of the fantasy value has been derived by James, Davis, Jokic, and Murray, which doesn’t leave a ton for the rest of the roster.
With that in mind, stars-and-scrubs is even more viable in this series than it typically is in the single-game format. You don’t necessarily need to play a single player in this price range.
Rajon Rondo is the only other Lakers’ player priced above $5,400 on DraftKings, and he simply doesn’t play enough to have a ton of relevance at his current price tag. He’s been a solid fantasy producer during the playoffs – he’s scored at least 26.25 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games – but we need more production now that he’s been priced up. I’m fine with fading him in Game 5.
If you are going to play Rondo, it’s best to do so on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been playing the most minutes on the Lakers outside of Davis and James, but he doesn’t have the biggest ceiling. He’s scored between 15.0 and 22.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, but that’s not exactly what we’re looking for at $5,400. He’s a bit too expensive for me.
On the Nuggets side, Jerami Grant is tough to ignore given his sheer volume of playing time. He’s coming off 42.8 minutes in Game 4, and he’s projected for 34.9 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s shown a ceiling of more than 35 DraftKings points in this series, which gives him a solid ceiling at his current salary.
Michael Porter Jr. has not been given much of an opportunity in this series, but he’s still one of the best producers in this price range on a per-minute basis. He’s an interesting flyer at just $9,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Values & Punts
These are the players who typically decide these showdown contests. It may not feel comfortable to roster someone who isn’t projected for a ton of minutes, but history suggests it’s the easiest way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard. These plays typically command lower ownership than the mid-tier guys, so they allow you to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the high-end stud production.
Let’s break down some of the top options in this range, rapid-fire style:
- Dwight Howard: $4,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Howard is coming off a monster performance in Game 4, finishing with 12 points and 11 rebounds over 22.6 minutes. It resulted in 30.75 DraftKings points, which made him easily the best pure value on the slate. The Nuggets’ big men have struggled with his size and physicality, so expect him to continue to play a solid handful of minutes.
- Monte Morris: $3,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Morris has been in the optimal DraftKings lineup in each of the past two games, and he’s coming off 20.5 DraftKings points in his last contest. He played a series-high 27.4 minutes in that contest and could be looking at a similar workload today.
- Alex Caruso: $3,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Caruso is coming off back-to-back subpar games, but he remains an important part of the Lakers’ rotation. He’s currently projected for 22.5 minutes, and Caruso is one of the better producers on a per-minute basis in this price range.
- Gary Harris: $3,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel – Harris is probably the safest bet for minutes in this price range, which does make him somewhat interesting. That said, he has provided virtually no fantasy value in this series. He’s scored 11.5 DraftKings points or fewer in each of the first four games, so he has very little ceiling.
- Torrey Craig: $2,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Craig has also found himself in the winning showdown lineup in each of the past two slates. That said, that has been more by virtue of his cheap salary rather than his production. His price has come up a bit, so he’ll need to do a bit more to find himself in the winning lineup once again.
