Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Darius Garland has carried a massive workload for the Cavaliers all season, and they’ve leaned on him even harder recently. He’s logged at least 40.6 minutes in five of his past seven games, and he leads all players with 40 projected minutes in our NBA Models. Garland has also increased his production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an appealing combination.
He’ll take the floor in a solid spot Saturday vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00.
Value
Ja Morant remains out of the lineup for the Grizzlies, so Tyus Jones should continue to start at point guard. He’s thrived in that role all year, averaging 26.72 DraftKings points in 18 games with Morant sidelined. He’s also been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.73 over his past 10 games.
Jones has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s expected to see around 30 minutes Saturday vs. the Bucks. The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks third on the slate, so there’s no reason not to go back to Jones in this spot.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, the Bucks have the potential to be really shorthanded. Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable. George Hill is a candidate to move into the starting lineup, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Historically, min-priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.50 (per the Trends tool).
Fred VanVleet is another point guard who routinely approaches 40 minutes a night, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel. His price tag remains very affordable at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he draws a matchup vs. a Pacers squad that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard doesn’t stand out as a great position to pay up for on Saturday. Most of the top options seem overpriced, so saving a bit with Dillon Brooks seems like a strong alternative. Brooks sat out the Grizzlies last game, but he has the potential to serve as the team’s top scorer with Morant sidelined. He leads the team with a 29.0% usage rate in 15 games without Morant this season, resulting in an average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Jalen Suggs remains out of the lineup for the Magic, so R.J. Hampton should remain in the starting lineup. His track record as a starter has been a bit up-and-down, but he has scored at least 22.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
Hampton also has more upside than usual given his matchup vs. the Kings. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Magic’s implied team total of 111.75 represents a massive increase from their season average of 104.1.
Fast Break
Speaking of the Kings, they’re another team with significant absences at the moment. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are both out of the lineup, leaving the team without their two highest usage players.
Davion Mitchell has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Fox and Sabonis off the floor this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.8% in that situation, resulting in an average of 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should be able to provide value at his current price tag.
DeMar DeRozan has SG eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most appealing on Saturday. His $7,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. DeRozan missed the Bulls’ last contest, but he is probable to suit up vs. the Cavaliers.
Small Forward
Stud
The Bucks’ injury report is going to have a huge impact on Saturday’s slate. If Antetokounmpo is ruled out, Khris Middleton should easily lead the team in usage rate. He’s increased his usage rate by a whopping +13.3% with Antetokounmpo and Holiday off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. Middleton has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season, so that represents a massive uptick in production.
Value
It doesn’t get much more unappealing than rostering Garrison Mathews in DFS. He’s averaged just 0.68 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that figure has dipped to 0.58 over the past month.
Still, it’s hard to find players priced this cheaply with as much playing time upside. Mathews is expected to see around 26 minutes in an outstanding matchup vs. the Blazers. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 117.5 is tied for the fourth-highest mark on the slate. The Rockets scored 125 points in this matchup on Friday.
Fast Break
OG Anunoby made his return to the Raptors’ lineup on Thursday and provided 25.0 DraftKings points over 26.4 minutes. Knowing head coach Nick Nurse, it won’t take long until Anunoby is back to playing closer to 40 minutes per game. Expect him to see closer to 30 minutes on Saturday, and Anunoby has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him a reasonable option at his current price tag across the industry.
Jimmy Butler and the Heat had another meltdown on Friday, blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead vs. the lowly Knicks. Still, Butler racked up 50.9 FanDuel points over 37 minutes, which is really all we care about in DFS. The Heat have yet to release their injury report for the second leg of Saturday’s back-to-back set, but Tyler Herro missed Friday’s contest due to a knee injury. Butler would see a significant boost in value if Herro is ruled out again.
Power Forward
Stud
If Giannis Antetokounmpo is active, he’s definitely worth consideration as the top overall play on the slate. Giannis has already produced at an elite level recently, averaging 1.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a nice boost with Holiday off the court this season. He’s increased his usage and assist rates in that situation, giving Antetokounmpo even more upside than usual.
Value
Chimezie Metu has excelled on a per-minute basis this season, and he’ll have the chance to play a bit more down the stretch. Sabonis and Richuan Holmes are both out of the lineup, while Marvin Bagley is now in Detroit. Metu saw nearly 26 minutes in the Kings’ last game, and he responded with 33.75 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so expect him to continue producing with additional playing time.
Fast Break
Trendon Watford continues to stand out as underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he racked up 35.0 FanDuel points over 30.5 minutes vs. the Rockets on Friday.
The Cavaliers’ frontcourt is a bit thin at the moment, with Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade both out with injuries. That’s opened the door for Kevin Love to grab a few additional minutes. Love has averaged a fantastic 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s finished with at least 32.25 DraftKings points the last three times he’s cracked 30 minutes, including 36.0 DraftKings points in his last outing. Overall, he’s one of the strongest options on the slate, especially at just $5,500 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
If Antetokounmpo is ruled out, Nikola Jokic becomes the clear top stud on Saturday’s slate. It’s been a while since Jokic provided a true ceiling game, but he’s still averaged 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s racked up at least 62.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, and he has significant upside vs. the Thunder.
They’re in clear tank mode, and they’ve dipped to 29th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. There’s definitely some blowout potential here – the Nuggets are listed as 15-point favorites – but Jokic is talented enough to pay off his salary even in reduced minutes.
Value
Damian Jones is another outstanding source of value in the Kings’ frontcourt. He’s taken over as the team’s starting center in place of Sabonis and Holmes, and he’s coming off 30.3 minutes in his last outing. Jones has averaged a respectable 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can easily pay off his $4,400 price tag with that much playing time.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond is coming off a rare poor showing in his last outing, but he still finished with 27.7 minutes. Drummond is capable of piling up fantasy points with that many minutes. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Nikola Vucevic is an appealing buy-low target on FanDuel. His $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. He should check in with lower ownership as well, making him an excellent tournament option.
Pictured above: Damian Jones #30 and Chimezie Metu #7 of the Sacramento Kings.
Photo Credit: Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images.
