The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There’s no reason not to go back to the well with James Harden Saturday vs. the Pistons. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.51 on DraftKings. He should continue to carry one of the largest workloads in the league, and he’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin both remain out of the lineup, while Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is currently listed as doubtful.
The Pistons are also a solid matchup for Harden. They’re below-average in defensive efficiency, and the Nets’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks fourth on the slate. Harden stands out as an elite target on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Ricky Rubio is going to have a chance to handle most of the point guard minutes for the Timberwolves tonight. D’Angelo Russell remains out with a long-term injury, while rookie Jordan McLaughlin will miss Saturday’s contest due to health and safety protocols. Rubio has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of making the most out of his playing time.
Rubio is also in an elite spot vs. the Blazers. They’ve been awful defensively this season, ranking just 28th in defensive efficiency, and Rubio owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.66 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Timberwolves, Jaylen Nowell put together a monster performance in his last outing. He finished with 47.0 FanDuel points over 28.2 minutes vs. the Pelicans. He should also see a healthy amount of playing time given Minnesota’s current injury situation, which makes him an appealing value option at just $3,600 on FanDuel.
Trae Young stands out on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and he’s increased his production to 1.31 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Kings, who rank dead-last in defensive efficiency by a sizable margin.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Raptors have been absolutely decimated by health and safety protocols recently. Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby all remain out of the lineup for tonight’s matchup vs. the Hornets, which means that Norman Powell will be asked to shoulder the load offensively. He racked up 33 points with all three players out of the lineup on Thursday, and his 20 shot attempts led the team. Powell’s salary has come up a bit across the industry, but he’s still too cheap at $7,300 on DraftKings.
Value
The Bucks have the potential to put up a crazy number of points tonight. They’re taking on the Wizards, who rank first in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. The Bucks managed 135 points in one of the toughest possible matchups in their last game — the Knicks ranked third in defensive efficiency and dead last in pace — so it’s scary to think what they could do tonight. Overall, their implied team total of 125.75 points is the top mark on the slate by five full points.
Donte DiVincenzo is a cheap way to grab some exposure to that total. He’s priced at just $4,600 on FanDuel, and he’s averaged a solid 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Terence Davis is another potential option for the Raptors. His playing time has been all over the place recently — he’s logged 21.2, 31.5, and 9.8 minutes in his past three games — but he’s averaged a productive 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That gives him solid upside at $3,900 if he hits his minute ceiling vs. the Hornets.
Bradley Beal stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $9,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Beal has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.63 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
I like the idea of throwing him into your lineups if you plan to load up on the Bucks. The only way that game turns into a shootout is if Washington holds up its end of the bargain, and Beal having a big game is the most logical way for that to happen.
Small Forward
Stud
Khris Middleton has quietly been providing excellent fantasy value of late. He struggled to just 22.0 FanDuel points in his last outing, but he was limited to 26.4 minutes in a blowout win. Prior to that contest, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven straight games.
He remains affordable at $7,500 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Wizards, and his 10 Pro Trends are the most at the position by a sizable margin. No other small forward on tonight’s slate owns more than six.
Value
Stanley Johnson is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and it’s hard not to love him at that price tag. He’s scored at least 23.9 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he should be looking at another solid workload given the Raptors’ current roster situation. He’s currently projected for 27.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and he should easily be able to return value with that much playing time.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari is starting to find his groove with the Hawks. He’s always been an excellent fantasy producer on a per-minute basis, but he got off to a slow start this season. That said, he’s increased his production to 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His playing time is also on the rise — he’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes vs. the Kings — which makes him too cheap on FanDuel at $4,700.
Pat Connaughton is another way to grab some cheap exposure to the Bucks. He’s priced at just $3,900 on DraftKings, and he’s projected for 27.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Connaughton has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.52 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Power Forward
Stud
Saturday looks like an excellent stars-and-scrubs slate. There are plenty of strong value options to choose from, which means there’s no excuse for Giannis Antetokounmpo not to be in your lineup. He’s been absolutely dominant recently, averaging 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and it simply doesn’t get any better from a matchup perspective. He’s going to command a ton of ownership, but no one on the slate can match his ceiling.
Value
Frank Kaminsky has eligibility at both PF and C on DraftKings, where he’s priced very reasonably at just $3,100. Kaminsky isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he doesn’t need much court time to potentially return value. He’s averaged a stout 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his matchup vs. the Pacers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.34.
Fast Break
Chris Boucher is another member of the Raptors who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s played at least 30.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and Boucher is a near-lock to return value with that much playing time. He’s averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +15.09 and a perfect 100% Consistency Rating in games where he’s played at least 25 minutes.
Jeff Green is another potential value at $3,800 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%, and his matchup vs. the Pistons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.69. He played fewer minutes in his last game — he entered that contest as questionable — so he could see a few additional minutes on Saturday.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been limited since returning to the lineup following a long absence due to COVID-19, but he’s tough to ignore at $9,100 on FanDuel. That represents a price decrease of nearly -$1,000 over his past three games, and it results in a Bargain Rating of 80%. Towns has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.50 with a comparable salary, so he’s an interesting buy-low option. The Blazers also represent a solid matchup, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.2.
Value
DeAndre Jordan has been a nice source of value with Durant out of the lineup. He’s playing approximately 26-28 minutes per game, and Jordan has averaged a respectable 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He’s in an elite spot Saturday vs. the Pistons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter has arguably the best matchup at the position today vs. the Timberwolves. He leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44 on FanDuel, and Kanter is capable of racking up fantasy points quickly. His per-minute production is a bit down of late, but he has the potential to be one of the best in the business in that department.
Clint Capela stands out as the player to pay up for on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.63 vs. the Kings. Capela has also averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Giannis, Nikola Jokic, and Towns among center-eligible players.
Photo Credit: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: James Harden
